RADIO
Hi, y'all! Ten weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 11 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 11 victory!
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchup. Let's help guide you to that Week 11 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
If we remove tough matchups against the Steelers, Ravens, and Colts from his stat line, Burrow is averaging 21.97 fantasy points per game, which would rank as QB8 on the season. Burrow is averaging 41.1 pass attempts per game, so the volume is there. He takes on a Washington defense that just allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 276 yards and three touchdowns without Kenny Golladay.
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Boyd leads the Bengals with a 21% target share (T-25th in NFL) and currently ranks as WR16 in PPR PPG. Boyd has totaled eight or more targets in 7 of 9 games this season. PFF projects him to be matched up with Jimmy Moreland (54.2 Coverage Grade). Last week, Washington allowed Marvin Jones to have a strong game (8 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD) and gave up a 55-yard touchdown to Marvin Hall. Look for Boyd to bounce back after a down game against the Steelers.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Since Week 2, Higgins is ranked as WR19 in PPR PPG. He's totaled at least 70 yards in five of his last six games, including two 100-yard games. During that span, he's posted a 30% air-yard share and 22% target share. Washington has given up 50+ yard plays to Marvin Hall and Austin Mack in consecutive weeks. Higgins should be able to get loose against this secondary.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin currently ranks 5th in expected fantasy points for wide receivers on RotoViz, but he's WR12 in PPR PPG this season. This shows how he's been held back by poor quarterback play, but he's in a smash spot this week. The Bengals just allowed a combined 19 receptions, 249 yards, and four touchdowns to Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
In his last four games, Thomas has caught 14-of-20 targets for 196 yards and two touchdowns, ranking as TE6 in PPR PPG during that span. Washington should be able to move the ball in this game, so it's a great spot against a Bengals Defense allowing the second-most PPR PPG to opposing tight ends. Thomas is finally translating his volume into production. Consider him a Top-10 play at TE this week.
Other Matchups:
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
It looks like yet another Bernard week, as Mixon missed Thursday's practice. In the last two weeks, Washington has allowed 247 yards on 48 carries (5.15 YPC) to opposing running backs. The issue here is that Samaje Perine (8 touches last week) is starting to get more work, which limits Bernard's upside. Consider Gio a volume-based RB2 this week, but temper your expectations.
UPDATE: Joe Mixon has officially been ruled out for this week.
Alex Smith (QB, WAS)
Smith is on the radar as a streamer or DFS tournament punt play, as he's thrown for 715 yards in his last two games. He now takes on a Bengals Defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. If the Bengals are able to get out to an early lead like the Giants and Lions did in the last two weeks, we could see Smith hit his ceiling in this one. At the same time, there's always risk with Captain Checkdown, making him a lukewarm play.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson has become dependent on game-script because the coaching staff prefers to use J.D. McKissic on passing downs. While the rookie had a big fantasy game last week, it was saved by two rushing touchdowns. McKissic out-snapped Gibson (70.45% to 37.50%) and had five more opportunities. With that said, if Washington plays with a lead here, Gibson is in a great spot - the Bengals have been gashed on the ground for 5.21 YPC (31st).
J.D. McKissic (RB, WAS)
McKissic is loving life with Captain Checkdown at quarterback, posting an absurd 15 targets against the Lions last week as Washington once again fell behind by multiple scores. It's more likely that Washington keeps things close in this game. We could also see the coaching staff try to exploit Cincy's suspect secondary with more shots downfield. McKissic's usage keeps him in play as a FLEX, but I prefer Gibson this week.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
The Ravens just got gashed on the ground by the Patriots, allowing 121 yards on 22 carries (5.5 YPC) to Damien Harris. This was because they lost their best run defender in DT Brandon Williams, who is expected to be out of the lineup for the next few weeks. Henry should be able to have a strong game as the focal point of the Titans attack, as the Ravens have been stout against the pass, allowing only 6.42 yards per attempt.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews showed signs of life last week, catching 7-of-9 targets for 61 yards after combining for only 15 targets, eight receptions, and 75 yards in the previous three games. With Nick Boyle now out for the season, we could see more volume for Andrews. Last week, Andrews played 75.76% of the snaps compared to his 63.58% season total prior to the game. I expect the Ravens to lean on him in the passing game in the coming weeks.
Matchups We Hate:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill will have to deal with one of the best pass defenses in football, as the Ravens rank 10th in pass DVOA, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Since top tackle Taylor Lewan torn his ACL, Tannehill is averaging only 15.01 fantasy points per game, which ranks as QB26. This looks like another tough week for Tannehill, so it's a good idea to avoid him in all formats.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, giving up only three 80+ yard games all season. The Titans have struggled offensively without Lewan, averaging only 21.25 points per game in four games. Davis is the possession receiver in this offense and does not have the big-play ability that A.J. Brown does, so it's hard to rely on him in this tough matchup.
Ravens RBs
The Ravens running backs are grouped together because they're clear-avoids with the current three-man committee. Last week, J.K. Dobbins (43.94%), Mark Ingram (25.76%), and Gus Edwards (22.73%) continue to share snaps, so we can't count on any of these players. The only player I'd consider using is Dobbins, but only as a cheap punt play in DFS tournaments. Hopefully the Ravens come to their senses and start using Dobbins as their lead back.
Other Matchups:
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown is an every-week starter no matter the matchup because of his playmaking ability, as he can take it to the house on any given play. At the same time, we need to downgrade him here as more of an upside WR2 because of the Ravens pass defense. PFF projects Brown to be covered by Marlon Humphrey (74.1 Coverage Grade), who is one of the best corners in football. I wouldn't consider using Brown in DFS this week.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Before the Lewan injury, Smith was averaging 5.8 targets per game, but that has decreased to 3.5 targets per game now. The good news is that Smith is actually running more routes with Lewan out of the lineup, posting a 79.2% route percentage with Lewan and 85.6% without Lewan. The Ravens are more vulnerable to tight ends, ranking 13th in PPR PPG allowed to the position this year, so we could see a solid game for Jonnu here.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson has a good matchup against a Titans Defense giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game. Since Week 6, they have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 151-of-214 (70.6%) of their passes for 1,495 yards with 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. This is a defense that allowed 300 yards to Nick Foles. The Titans look like a get-right spot for the Ravens passing game, but so did the Patriots last week and that didn't work out too well.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Since their Week 7 bye, Brown has combined for six receptions, 55 yards, and one touchdown. Lamar continues to struggle as a passer, failing to develop a rapport with his most explosive receiver. On paper, this is a great matchup, as the Titans have allowed the fifth-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, but we simply can't trust Brown right now. I'd only consider him as an option in DFS tournaments, despite the strong matchup.
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, DET)
Jones takes on a Panthers Defense that has funneled production to opposing WR1, giving up big games to Chris Godwin (6 REC, 92 YDS), Tyreek Hill (9 REC, 113 YDS, 2 TD), Julio Jones (7 REC, 137 YDS), Calvin Ridley (8 REC, 136 YDS), Keenan Allen (13 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD), and Mike Evans (7 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD). Consider Jones an upside WR3 if Kenny Golladay misses another game.
Mike Davis (RB, CAR)
Davis takes over the lead back role with Christian McCaffrey sidelined once again, just in time for a smash spot against a Lions Defense allowing the most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Teddy Bridgewater is unlikely to play this week, so expect the Panthers to lean on the running game more with P.J. Walker under center. We could also see more checkdowns for Davis.
Matchups We Hate:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
It's hard to trust Moore this week with Walker at quarterback. Moore plays the deep-threat role for this Panthers offense, resulting in less volume and more uncatchable targets. While the Lions rank 15th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers. This is not the week to use Moore due to the risk involved, so you can leave him on your bench as a boom-or-bust WR3.
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford has been totally mediocre this season in fantasy, ranking as QB21 on the season. He's currently nursing a thumb injury, putting him at less than 100 percent if he does suit up for this game. This isn't an easy matchup, as the Panthers have allowed 7.05 Y/A (13th in NFL). It's best to avoid a banged-up Stafford, especially since he hasn't shown much upside this season.
Other Matchups:
Lions RBs
This was setting up as another smash spot for D'Andre Swift, but he missed Thursday's practice with a concussion, putting his status in doubt for Sunday's game. It's more likely that we'll see Adrian Peterson assume the lead back role, with Kerryon Johnson taking over on passing downs if Swift is out. I would consider Peterson an upside FLEX against a Panthers defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to running backs.
UPDATE: D'Andre Swift has officially been ruled out for this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Like Stafford, Hockenson is currently banged up and dealing with a toe injury. The Panthers rank 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to opposing tight ends, which keeps Hockenson in play as a TE1, but we need to temper our expectations. Hockenson only caught 2-of-4 targets for 13 yards against Washington last week, clearly slowed down by his injury.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson is best-equipped to withstand the downgrade at quarterback from Bridgewater to Walker as the target hog on the perimeter. Anderson also played with Walker in college, so there's a decent chance that he'll be the go-to target here. We also need to upgrade Anderson with CMC out of the lineup, as some of that target share will be funneled towards the perimeter. Consider Anderson a WR3 with some upside this week.
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)
Samuel could also eat up some of CMC's target share. I would expect him to line up in the backfield even more often with Walker under center, as OC Joe Brady tries to make things easier on his backup quarterback. While Samuel needs to be viewed as a volatile WR3 with this uncertainty at quarterback, he's a better option than teammate Moore this week.
Injury Notes:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET): Swift missed Thursday's practice with a concussion. If he plays, he's an RB1. UPDATE: D'Andre Swift has officially been ruled out for this week.
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET): Golladay missed Thursday's practice. If he plays, he's a high-end WR2.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns
Matchups We Love:
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Sanders is averaging 86.5 rush yards per game (3rd), 6.0 YPC (3rd), 5 targets per game (6th) while playing 71.33% of the snaps (3rd) - that's RB1 usage. He would have had a huge game against the Giants last week, but Boston Scott and Corey Clement vultured two touchdowns. While the Browns are limiting opposing running backs to the 10th-fewest PPR PPG, they're actually only 18th in run defense DVOA. Sanders is a Top-7 RB1 this week.
Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI)
Reagor is slowly starting to assert himself as the top option on the perimeter, leading the team with seven targets last week. In two games since returning from injury, Reagor has led the Eagles with a 20.97% target share and 27.80% air-yard share. The Browns are allowing sixth-most PPR PPG to opposing wide receivers, so this is a good matchup for rookie out of TCU. Consider Reagor an upside WR3 this week.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Since OBJ suffered a season-ending injury, Landry has led the Browns with a 36.36% target share and 42.70% air-yard share. This shift in volume has been masked by the wind, but it's time to get excited about Landry here. He'll get to avoid Darius Slay in the slot and should be the primary pass-catcher for the Browns in this game. Consider Landry a volume-based WR3 with upside for more in this game.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Hooper caught only 1-of-2 targets for 11 yards in his return from injury last week, but we can chalk that up to the windy weather in Cleveland. For the first time in three weeks, the Browns won't have to play in tough conditions this week, as the current forecast projects only moderate winds (15 MPH). Before Hooper's injury, he was averaging 7.7 targets per game in his previous three games. The Eagles have allowed the fourth-most PPR PPG to tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Wentz has struggled mightily in the last two games, completing 36-of-64 passes (56.25%) for 331 yards (5.17 Y/A) with two touchdowns and two interceptions, ranking as QB31 in fantasy points per game during that span. While the Browns rank 20th in pass DVOA, we simply can't trust Wentz with the way that he's playing right now. I would only consider using Wentz in SuperFlex formats this week.
Travis Fulgham (WR, PHI)
Fulgham has a good matchup here, but it's hard to trust him right now as he's no longer the top option in this offense with Sanders, Reagor, and Goedert back in the lineup. There's suddenly a lot of mouths to feed here and Fulgham's profile as a possession receiver requires more targets in order to reach his ceiling. Fulgham's target share has dipped from 29.08% to 19.35% in the last two games, so he's fallen to the WR3/4 fringe, even in the good matchup.
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield has been victimized by windy conditions in the last two games, averaging only 6.58 fantasy points during that span - that's less than Taysom Hill. While the weather should be more favorable for Sunday, it's hard to trust Mayfield as the quarterback in a run-heavy offense. The Eagles are tied for 13th in points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so this isn't exactly a great matchup.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE)
Higgins is the top option on the perimeter for the Browns with OBJ on the shelf, but that's bad news against the Eagles, since he'll be covered by Darius Slay (PFF 64.8 Coverage Grade). While Slay hasn't been as good as he once was, he still should be able to slow down Higgins in this one. I expect the Browns to funnel targets towards the running backs, tight ends, and slot receivers in this game.
Other Matchups:
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert has been disappointing in his return from injury, catching 5-of-7 targets for 48 yards in two games. He takes on a Browns Defense that ranks 23rd in PPR PPG allowed to opposing tight ends, so there's a chance that he gets back on track in this game. He's still a Top-10 option at tight end given the barren state of the position, but temper your expectations with the way that Wentz is playing right now.
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb (43.08% snap share, 20 opportunities) returned to action last week and split carries with Kareem Hunt (58.46% snap share, 23 opportunities). Chubb is getting work on early downs with Hunt taking the reins on passing downs. We need to consider both of these backs as upside RB2s with the current setup. They take on an Eagles Defense allowing only 3.37 YPC, so this is a tough machup. I prefer Hunt here due to his passing game usage.
New England Patriots at Houston Texans
Matchups We Love:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
In the last three weeks, Harris has 52 rush attempts for 294 yards (5.65 YPC) and a touchdown. He now takes on a Texans Defense allowing the third-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs, as well as 251 rush attempts (most in NFL) and 5.53 YPC (32nd in NFL). While there's always risk with Cam Newton vulturing a rushing touchdown and the lack of passing game usage, Harris is in a smash spot as an upside RB2.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
It's the Brandin Cooks revenge game against the Patriots. Since Bill O'Brien was fired, Cooks has been targeted 47 times (9.4 per game). The Patriots have given up 90+ yards to receivers like Breshad Perriman, Stefon Diggs, and Brandon Aiyuk in recent weeks. The risk here is that this game projects to be low-volume due to the Pats' run-heavy style, but Cooks' higher volume should make him a safer option than teammate Will Fuller.
Duke Johnson (RB, HOU)
Duke disappointed fantasy players last week in production, but he was given bell-cow usage against the Browns, playing on 94.74% of the snaps with 100% of the team's carries. I expect him to make more of an impact in the passing game after not being targeted last week. The Pats have allowed 4.60 YPC (25th in NFL), so this is an exploitable matchup for Johnson. Consider him a volume-based RB2 this week with some upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
The Texans are tied for 13th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed the sixth-fewest pass attempts due to their run-funnel defense and slow-paced offense - the Texans have run the third-fewest plays in football. The Texans rank 4th in quarterback rushing yards - Lamar Jackson ran for 54 yards on 16 carries (3.4 YPC) against them. Combine these factors and you can see why I'm out on Cam Newton this week.
Other Matchups:
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers has been given WR1 usage in the last three weeks, leading the NFL with a 42% target share and 60% air yard share. He takes on a Texans defense ranked 21st in PPR PPG allowed to opposing wide receivers. The risk here is that there won't be enough passing volume for Meyers to provide enough value this week. The Patriots are a run-heavy team that now faces a run-funnel defense, so we can expect them to lean on Damien Harris.
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
The Patriots rank 30th in pass DVOA, but have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. This is because they have given up the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. When they do give up pass volume, it's often with a big play (8.60 Y/A allowed, 31st in NFL). This bodes well for Watson's outlook, but I still have concerns about the passing volume in this slow-paced game, making Watson more of a lukewarm play.
Will Fuller (WR, HOU)
Fuller has a chance to get loose deep against this Patriots secondary, but I don't like him as much as Cooks because of the lower target share. It's going to be difficult for both Texans receivers to provide WR2/3 production against a Patriots team that really limits the opponent's volume. We also need to consider how Bill Belichick has historically been able to limit the opposing team's best weapon, so we could see that happen here with Fuller.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchups We Love:
Ben Roethlisberger (QB, PIT)
In the last two weeks, Big Ben is ranked QB3 in fantasy points per game, averaging 42 pass attempts during that span. He takes on a Jaguars Defense ranked 31st in pass DVOA, allowing the third-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks, as well as 8.61 Y/A (32nd). While there's risk that the Steelers blow out the Jags, we have seen how they play down to their competition. They have also really struggled to run the ball - Big Ben is a Top-5 QB1.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae has been a beast when he's been able to play a full game, catching 35-of-59 targets for 422 yards and four touchdowns in the five games where he was not forced out due to injury. The Jags rank 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers. He's the safest option among the Steelers trio of receivers. PFF projects him to be covered by Sidney Jones (77.3 Coverage Grade), but this is not a matchup to fear.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, PIT)
JuJu has come alive in recent weeks, catching 31-of-42 targets for 322 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. PFF projects him to be covered by Tre Herndon (45.8 Coverage Grade), so this is a smash spot. The risk here is that JuJu has the lowest average depth of target (5.9 yards), so if the Steelers are able to run the ball effectively, the volume might not be there for JuJu to thrive. Despite this risk, the matchup is too good not to love.
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool is also in a smash spot against a Jaguars secondary that just bleeds big plays downfield, allowing huge games to deep-threats like Marquez Valdes-Scantling (4 REC, 149 YDS, 1 TD), Will Fuller (5 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD), Brandin Cooks (3 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD), and Jalen Guyton (2 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD) in the last three games. Claypool has touchdown equity and big-play ability that makes him an upside WR2 this week.
Other Matchups:
James Conner (RB, PIT)
Conner has another great matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. However, Conner busted in consecutive smash spots in the last two weeks against the Bengals and Cowboys. The Jags are also allowing only 4.03 YPC (T-9th), including limiting Aaron Jones to only 46 yards on 13 attempts (3.5 YPC). Conner remains an RB2 in a strong matchup, but temper your expectations.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson continues to be given RB1 usage, which keeps him as a lukewarm play, but this is a really tough matchup against a Steelers Defense allowing only 4.13 YPC (12th) and 17.7 PPR points per game (1st) to opposing running backs. Robinson has also been limited in practice this week, as he's dealing with a shoulder injury. Consider Robinson a volume-based RB2 in this matchup in a negative game script where the Jags could be blown out.
D.J. Chark (WR, JAX)
Chark has developed a strong rapport with Jake Luton, catching 11-of-17 targets for 202 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. The Steelers rank 23rd in PPR points per game allowed to opposing wide receivers, so this matchup isn't as imposing as it looks. However, there's a risk that the Steelers pass rush causes fits for Luton, making it difficult for him to find Chark downfield. Consider Chark more of a WR3 this week.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Matchups We Love:
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
Well, this is unexpected. Drew Brees is hurt and will miss some time, pushing the turnover-prone Winston into the starting lineup for the Saints. The good news: he's got a big arm and should enable this offense to push the ball downfield more, which should be good news against a Falcons Defense that allows more fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than any other NFL team. Consider Winston to be a low-end QB1 play with immense upside. Like, finishing as the overall QB1 type upside.
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
Ugh. Why. The Falcons defense is terrible, so while Hill should not be starting over Jameis Winston, he's a top 15 play at QB despite some very obvious limitations, namely his inability to throw a football well. He also has TE eligibility on some platforms, where he's a must-play over everyone but Travis Kelce, because being able to play a starting QB at tight end is a cheat code.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
He's a matchup-proof RB1 who is virtually always worth paying up for in DFS. There's really not much to say about Kamara at this point other than "play him." (If you want to worry, Atlanta does allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, but I would not worry.)
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Provided Ridley is healthy, I'm super high on him this week. Ridley has a high target share when he plays. He also has 36.19 percent of the team's air yards and a third of red zone targets. Ridley isn't the WR2 here -- he and Julio Jones are both the top guys. Play Ridley as a low-end WR1.
UPDATE: Calvin Ridley is expected to make his return from injury this week.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
The Saints allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. Hurst is fifth among tight ends in receptions. His target share is lower than a lot of other TEs, but he's made the most of his chances. I think the Saints Defense isn't as bad as it looks against the position, but tight end is pretty week, so Hurst makes the TE1 tier.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Cook has been a disappointment, including catching no passes last week. But he's found the end zone four times and has a juicy matchup against the Falcons, who have been atrocious when it comes to defending against tight ends this season. I get your concerns over his production, but the matchup makes him a solid TE1 play.
Matchups We Hate:
Todd Gurley II (RB, ATL)
Gurley has had a strong 2020 season despite efficiency concerns because he keeps finding the end zone. But if there's going to be a week where Gurley's issues really come back to bite him, it'll be against this Saints run defense, which allows the fewest fantasy points per game of any team to running backs. Opportunities keep him in the RB2 mix in season-long, but I'll stay pretty far away from Gurley in DFS.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
I almost put Ryan in the first column, but just a little worried as this Saints Defense has been pretty good. If this turns into a shootout, there's a solid path to QB1 production for Ryan, but I'd feel more comfortable treating him as a high-end QB2 play this week.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
I know Marshon Lattimore hasn't been MARSHON LATTIMORE this year, but I'm worried just enough to consider not paying up for Jones in DFS, even if I'm starting him as a WR1 in season-long leagues due to his upside. And hey, I'm probably overestimating things with Lattimore.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
I guess there is some reason for concern since Thomas is the "catch a slant" guy and Winston is an "air it out" guy. But the Falcons allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, so let's just trust that Winston and Thomas find a strong connection against a really porous Falcons pass defense.
I loved this matchup when Jameis Winston was starting, but I don't love it when Taysom Hill is. The passing volume will drop across the board for Thomas, who goes from a strong WR1 play to more of an upside WR2 play due to how much his floor just sunk because of Hill.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
New York Jets at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Joe Flacco (QB, NYJ)
Look, there is zero reason to play Flacco in a one-QB league, even against a Chargers team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. But relative to his perceived value -- which I'm pretty sure is essentially zero -- Flacco is an intriguing piece who threw three touchdowns last game. If I need a second QB in a Superflex league or want to get a cheap value play in DFS, I like Flacco.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
The Jets Defense is bad. Herbert should be able to throw all over them and should be considered a solid QB1 play. He's thrown for multiple touchdowns in six consecutive games. By the end of Sunday, it'll be seven games.
Kalen Ballage (RB, LAC)
I can't believe I'm writing positive things about Kalen Ballage. But after having 18 carries for 68 yards last week plus five receptions for 34, I think we have to acknowledge Ballage as a high-floor play against a Jets defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
When Jamison Crowder is healthy, he gets targets in the slot, a place the Chargers have sometimes struggled to contain. His ceiling is limited, but he's a safe WR3 play in full PPR leagues and someone I'm definitely looking at in DFS.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Justin Herbert really likes to throw to Keenan Allen. The Jets allow the 12th-most fantasy points per game to wide receiver. Allen is back in the WR1 conversation each week thanks to Herbert, and I see no reason to expect that to change this week.
Hunter Henry (TE, NYJ)
I'll give Henry one more shot to produce before I stop trusting him. If he'a going to top 39 yards for the first time since Week 3, this is the week against a struggling Jets defense. If it doesn't happen, it might be time to start a "Justin Herbert isn't good for tight ends" narrative.
Matchups We Hate:
Frank Gore, La'Mical Perine (RB, NYJ)
Sorry, but I can't recommend playing a Jets running back.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
The matchup itself is fine, but this backfield is moving from being a split to very much being Kalen Ballage's backfield. That leaves Kelley with fewer and fewer touches each week.
Other Matchups:
Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ)
I think this should be a good passing game for New York, but I'm not sure that makes Perriman or Mims safe plays. Perriman has big play potential but also hasn't gotten reliable targets. Mims has talent but is the third option on an offense that hasn't been great. I like both guys as deep-league plays, even if neither is even close to being a safe option.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
While I like the matchup in a vacuum, we can't ignore the volatility of Mike Williams, who has three games of under 20 yards this season but also two very good games, including going for 109 yards and two scores against the Saints. The rollercoaster that is his production makes it too hard to trust him, though this could definitely be one of his boom weeks.
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos
Matchups We Love:
[This space intentionally left blank.]
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Lock? (QB, DEN)
We don't even know yet if Lock's going to be able to play. But considering he's coming off a four interception game and that he's completed 52 percent of his passes or fewer in three starts, I think the floor for Lock makes him someone worth sitting even if he does show up healthy on Sunday.
Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler (WR, DEN)
In what looks like a low scoring game, I don't think Denver has enough passes to go around for either Patrick or Hamler to be more than a boom/bust WR5 play.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
His role continues to decline. Denver allows the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. TE2 play, and not one of the more exciting ones.
Other Matchups:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
The matchup is fine, but it's really hard to trust the first-year passer yet. He's thrown five touchdowns in three games as a starter, but has under 200 yards in two of those games. His floor is too low for him to be an option in one-QB leagues, though he's fine as a second QB this week.
Salvon Ahmed (RB, MIA)
After the surprise waiving of Jordan Howard, Salvon Ahmed was elevated to the starting RB role in Miami until Myles Gaskin is back. Ahmed rushed 21 times for 85 yards and a score last game and should be in line for a solid but slightly smaller workload with Matt Breida likely back. Consider Ahmed a low-end RB2 play.
Melvin Gordon III, Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
There is value here...right? Maybe with Miami allowing the 11th-most points per game to running backs there will be, but this timeshare has been rough on both players. They're both fine if you need them to be your RB3, but don't count on them to be more than that.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
In Tua's three starts, Parker has twice had two or fewer receptions. He does have consecutive seven-target games, but the fact that he isn't necessarily producing with those chances is worrisome. He's got solid upside, but is still just a WR3 play.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
He's getting a lot of air yards and has 68 or more receiving yards in three consecutive games. The Dolphins Defense has a good chance to stymie Jeudy, but his 15.3 aDOT is second among players with at least 20 targets since Week 8, so there's always going to be upside. He's a WR3 play, but a good one.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Miami has been better against tight ends than Miami, but Fant's a better talent than Gesicki, which saves him from joining his fellow up-and-coming TE in the above section. Fant has a strong weekly ceiling, even if this game could see him produce numbers that are far closer to his floor.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
The closest thing to a sure thing outside of Alvin Kamara, Cook was bottled up last week by the Bears and still had over 100 scrimmage yards. It was his first game of the year without a touchdown, and I don't think he makes it two weeks without finding pay dirt. Not against the Cowboys, who allow the second-most rushing yards per game to the position plus eight total touchdowns.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Cooper had seven catches for 79 yards and a touchdown in Dalton's full game against Arizona. If there's a receiver I trust this week against a Vikings Defense that can be exploited, it's Cooper, who rates as a strong WR2 option.
Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
This is a week where it's good that only two players really exist in this receiving game, because it means that even with the low projected volume here, both guys have good shots to take advantage of a Cowboys Defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Hopefully there are enough targets to go around, as I'd start Thielen as a low-end WR1 and Jefferson as a low-end WR2.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
Smith has a groin injury that kept him out last game. Rudolph had his first game with four receptions with Smith out. I suppose you can play Rudolph if Smith misses another game, but with this one being in the late afternoon window, you should probably not wait until inactives come out to make a decision about your tight end in case this one goes up to game time.
Other Matchups:
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL)
I want to like Dalton this week against a Vikings Defense that allows the sixth-most passing yards per game, but considering he didn't do much with his one full game this season, I'm not ready to say this is a good week for the veteran. Fine as a QB2 option, though.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
The other QB in this game also has a good matchup on paper but projects to be a middling QB2 play. In Cousins's case, it's because he's thrown 20 or fewer passes in two of the last three games. The volume concerns are too much of a negative.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Okay, Zeke isn't Zeke right now. Three games in a row with under four yards per carry. No touchdowns since Week 5. Basically no involvement as a receiver. Volume still makes him an RB2, but he's not worth paying up for in DFS right now.
CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Do I trust either player like I would if he had Dak Prescott throwing him the ball? No. But this Vikings secondary has issues and both Lamb and Gallup have upside this week. Lamb's got the higher floor of the two and is a WR3 play. Gallup is risky because of how volatile his targets have been, but is probably more of a WR4 play with a decently high ceiling.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
He'll probably get between five and seven targets and wind up with 30 to 50 yards, which is fine if you need an emergency play at the position, but he's also got a limited ceiling with no Dak Prescott, who threw him both of his touchdowns earlier in the season.
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
Matchups We Love:
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Matchups We Hate:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
I don't like putting elite players in this section, but Rodgers faces a Colts Defense that allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. It's incredibly tough to throw on them and while Rodgers remains a must-start in season-long leagues, this is a week where I would NOT be looking to pay up for him in DFS.
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
On the other side, the Packers Defense is also good against QBs, holding them to the fourth-fewest points. Rivers was trending up for a bit, with six touchdowns in a two-game span, but now he has just one touchdown pass the last two weeks, which worries me. With such a bad matchup on tap, Rivers is a low-end QB2.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
MVS showed some big play ability last week, but those opportunities are less likely to be there against this defense and with Lazard back from injury. Meanwhile, we don't know what Lazard's workload will look like and probably want to give it some time before we play him, even if he ultimately winds up being the WR2 here.
T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
Droppable in shallow formats, Hilton has one game with over 53 yards and has not found the end zone. With a tough matchup this week, he's not on my radar outside of that one deep league where injuries are killing me and I have to take a chance on him.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Like with Rodgers, this is another "hate the matchup but you've got to play him" situation. The difference is I don't hate the matchup quite as much as I do with Rodgers and that I expect this to be a game where both teams try to run the ball. Jones is a low-end RB1 in season-long but a risky DFS play.
Colts Running Backs
This would be a great matchup -- Packers allow the third-most fantasy points to the position -- if only there was someone here to trust. Instead, Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Jordan Wilkins continue to see their usage fluctuate. Taylor is trending down and has failed to live up to his preseason hype. Hines suddenly re-entered the picture last week. And Wilkins spent Weeks 8 and 9 looking like the new go-to here before finishing third of the trio in touches last week. In theory, all of these guys have upside. In reality, they're all risky RB3/4 plays.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams is a locked in WR1 in season-long, but this Colts defense is good enough for me to seriously consider limiting my exposure in DFS, even if Adams has the highest ceiling of any wideout in the NFL.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
If I had to play a Colts receiver this week, it's Pittman, who has 15 targets in the past two games and just had his first 100-yard performance. I don't love the matchup, but you could do worse as your WR3.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The Raiders beat the Chiefs earlier in the season, but Mahomes threw for 340 yards in that game and accounted for three scores. He has nine passing TDs in the past two weeks and averages 2.6 in five career games against the Raiders. Start him as a high-end QB1.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
One of my favorite streaming plays of the week, Carr has seen a dip in his numbers lately and has three games in a row with under 200 yards. But he was strong against the Chiefs earlier in the year, throwing a season-high 347 yards and three touchdowns. I don't expect a repeat, but I do expect him to take a big step up from what he's done the past few weeks.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Averaging 22 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown over the last three games plus finding the end zone twice in Week 5 against this Chiefs team, I'm feeling really confident in Jacobs as an RB1 play this week.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Yes, you should stack Mahomes and Hill this week in DFS if you're willing to pay up. He's an explosive receiver who can make an impact in a variety of ways and who had 93 yards in the first meeting between these teams with a rushing touchdown. Solid WR1 play.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Always play Travis Kelce, but especially play him against the Raiders. Earlier this year, he exploded here, catching eight of his 12 targets for 108 yards and a score. He's THE fantasy TE1 this week and, well...every week.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
The TE2 this week? Probably Waller! He had five catches fo 48 and a touchdown in that last meeting and is this team's best receiver. He's seen double-digit targets three times, has four touchdowns on the year, and is always a top TE1 play, even if he's got more volatility to his production than Kelce does, as the yardage hasn't been here the last three games for Waller.
Matchups We Hate:
Le'Veon Bell (RB, KC)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't been producing, but Bell has done even less than him in the past two games, averaging 7.5 rushing yards. Last week, he even hurt fantasy managers in the receiving game by taking his one catch for negative five yards. He's a risky RB4/5 option.
Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)
The targets aren't here, and he's not even producing on the limited targets that he does get. Same goes for Nelson Agholor and Hunter Renfrow, really. I think all three guys have higher ceilings than usual in this matchup, but while I'd definitely stream their QB, I think the guessing game of who has a good game here is too tough for me to use any as more than a dart throw WR4.
Other Matchups:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
On paper, a meeting with a Raiders defense that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs is enticing! In reality, this split here is extremely worrisome. CEH -- who is dealing with an illness right now -- is averaging 27 rushing and 15.7 receiving yards per game over the past three contests. RB2 upside, but plenty of risk.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchup between the Rams and Buccaneers.
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