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It's nearly playoff time and every lineup tweak can have major implications for the fate of fantasy squads. That's why our RotoBaller team continues ramping up our efforts to break down every fantasy football matchup and provide week-winning advice.
With major COVID-19 complications to contend with this week, such as the absence of Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, and others, fantasy managers could be forced to make difficult decisions during the most important matchup of the year. Luckily, our RotoBaller team dives into the top waiver-wire pickups each week to help those in need.
While identifying must-starts is an important step on the path to victory, avoiding duds is just as crucial. For those rostering any of the ten players named below, it would behoove you to pivot to other options. Have a read and see why they are poised to let you down. Most importantly, let's clinch some playoff spots, RotoBallers!
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Ryan Tannehill vs. Indianapolis Colts
Ryan Tannehill’s last matchup with the Colts came two weeks ago and produced a stat line of 15 completions on 27 pass attempts for 147 yards and one score. That performance was good enough for QB21 on the week. That game continued a trend of four straight weeks outside the top-twelve for Tannehill prior to his QB6 finish against the Ravens last week. The unsuccessful span is not solely the fault of Tannehill, as he has had a downright brutal schedule. Unfortunately, that schedule does not ease up this week with a divisional clash against the defensively stout Colts.
Aaron Rodgers lit them up last week, yet the Colts still rank third on the season versus fantasy quarterbacks, allowing only 15.6 points per game. Rodgers was just the second quarterback to finish inside the top-twelve against Indianapolis, meaning the odds of an impactful performance from Tannehill appear quite low. Both of these teams favor a run-heavy clock-grinding approach that offers limited opportunity for fantasy output in the passing game. Tannehill has topped 233 passing yards just once in his last five games and twice in his last seven. Fantasy managers forced to lean on him will be wholly dependent on touchdowns and with several streamers available, such as Taysom Hill, GMs should wait until Tannehill’s schedule lightens up before re-inserting him into starting lineups.
Melvin Gordon III vs. New Orleans Saints
Melvin Gordon appeared in my bust column last week and used that as motivation to score his first two touchdowns in a month. He played 50% of snaps compared to 44% for backfield-mate Phillip Lindsay, who out-carried Gordon 16-15. This is a true split on the ground. Neither is involved in the passing game, with each receiving zero targets last week, making the floor extremely low for both running backs.
The Saints allow just 3.3 yards per carry, second in the NFL behind the Buccaneers’ 3.2 mark. Splitting groundwork against such a stout run defense is going to prove problematic if neither back works their way into the end zone. The Saints have allowed an NFL-low five touchdowns to running backs on the season and have similarly surrendered the fewest fantasy points to the position, at only 14.9 per game. Todd Gurley was the RB45 against New Orleans last week. Jerick McKinnon was the RB37 a week prior. Ronald Jones II was the RB51 against them in Week 9. You can see the trend, and it should scare you off of Gordon this week.
Devin Singletary vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Devin Singletary may just be third on the list of players favorited to lead the Bills in rushing yards each week. Singletary has only 155 rushing yards since Zack Moss’s return from injury in Week 5. Moss has 176 rushing yards in that span, while quarterback Josh Allen has 196. Allen has two rushing touchdowns during that stretch, compared to three for Moss and zero for Singletary. It’s not as if Singletary is making up for it in the passing game, as he has only nine catches for 73 scoreless yards over those six games. Singletary’s usage is on a steady decline, as evident by his ten total touches over the past two weeks. Buffalo has all but abandoned putting the ball in the hands of their running backs, as the duo of Moss and Singletary have combined for only 22 carries over the past two weeks, with the latter receiving six of those.
The Chargers are friendly to fantasy rushers, allowing the 11th-most points per game. In their last three games, the Chargers have surrendered a top-twelve fantasy finish to Josh Jacobs, Devontae Booker, Salvon Ahmed, and even Frank Gore. Each of those rushers found the end zone, however, which will be difficult for Singletary considering he has received only six carries inside the ten-yard line this entire season, with only two of those coming since Week 4. The matchup is there, but the usage is not. Don’t let Singletary burn you again this week.
Marquise Brown vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This game appears to be in jeopardy of being canceled and managers should pay close attention to the news until we know the status of this meeting of rivals. One thing that is for certain is that Lamar Jackson will not be playing, as the reigning MVP has tested positive for COVID-19. Marquise Brown has struggled to produce even with his starting quarterback, and a downgrade to the similarly styled but less talented Robert Griffin III is unlikely to provide a remedy for what ails Brown.
No matter where the blame lies, Brown has been an unmitigated disaster for fantasy managers this season. An extremely talented player, Brown’s preseason hype appeared warranted. That hype has resulted in the following fantasy finishes: WR25, WR62, WR96, WR39, WR17, WR46, WR49, WR70, WR80, and WR149. Brown has been usable for fantasy three times this entire season. For a player labeled as boom-or-bust, Brown has yet to provide a true “boom” week but has been a frequent passenger on the bust train. Brown failed to haul in any of his three targets last week and has accumulated just six receptions for 55 yards since way back in Week 6. Outside of deep leagues, those numbers do not belong on any redraft fantasy roster, let alone in anyone’s starting lineup.
Pittsburgh is middle of the road against fantasy receivers, ranking sixteenth against the position. The Steelers’ fierce pass rush will force RG3 to get the ball out of his hands quickly, though, leaving minimal time for downfield routes to develop. If Brown is ever going to hit for his fantasy GMs, it is going to require a deep ball connection. Considering RG3 has started only one NFL game since 2016, I wouldn’t count on it this week.
Breshad Perriman vs. Miami Dolphins
Breshad Perriman has enjoyed teaming up with Joe Flacco. It’s Flacco’s willingness to take deep shots that has made Perriman viable, as a 49-yard touchdown saved an otherwise disastrous outing for the receiver last week. In three games with Flacco under center, Perriman has accounted for eleven receptions on nineteen targets for 217 yards and three scores.
Posing issue for Perriman this week is the return of Sam Darnold. The importance of the quarterback switch is evident by how heavily Jamison Crowder has been targeted whenever Darnold is in the lineup. Crowder has not dipped below seven receptions or 104 receiving yards in any game with Darnold, although the two have played together just three times this year. It is still a staggering difference when compared to Crowder’s combined line of three receptions on six targets for 42 yards over his last two games with Flacco. Additionally, Denzel Mims’s return in Week 7 has resulted in at least seven targets in three of four games, further complicating the target volume for Perriman.
Perhaps an even bigger issue for Perriman this week is a looming matchup with Miami’s cornerback duo of Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. With Crowder lining up mostly in the slot, it is Mims and Perriman who will deal with the coverage challenges posed by these Pro Bowl corners. As highlighted last week, while Miami’s secondary is beatable and ranks middle-of-the-pack in terms of fantasy success against wide receivers, they have recently held the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jerry Jeudy in check. Expect that trend to continue this week and bench Perriman.
A.J. Green vs. New York Giants
Rookie sensation Joe Burrow was unfortunately lost to a devastating knee injury last week and the wide receiver trio of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins will have to move forward with some combination of Brandon Allen and Ryan Finley. Veteran A.J. Green has caught just 45% of his targets this season and that was with Burrow healthy. His new quarterbacks have career completion percentages of 45.4 (Finley) and 46.4 (Allen). Allen will presumably get the first crack at replacing Burrow, but it does not really matter. Things are not going to get better. Green was already struggling significantly to separate and is clearly third in the pecking order for targets behind Boyd and Higgins. You do not want to start the third option for Brandon Allen.
On the other side of the ball, the New York Football Giants have surprisingly held their own for the most part. The Giants are middling against fantasy receivers, ranking seventeenth, but are sixth against quarterbacks. That spells trouble for in-over-his-head Allen. GMs can still start Boyd and Higgins, albeit with very shaky confidence levels. The same cannot be said for Green, who should garner no confidence this week and potentially moving forward. At best, it’s a wait-and-see approach. Ultimately, there is no approach that should justify Green in starting lineups this week.
DJ Chark Jr. vs. Cleveland Browns
The good news for DJ Chark is that cornerback Denzel Ward, the NFL leader in passes defended, is expected to miss this game. The bad news is that the game of musical chairs in the Jacksonville quarterback room continues this week, with Mike Glennon making his first NFL start since 2017. An interesting note found on Twitter from the Associated Press’s Mark Long is that Glennon’s path to this opportunity is an ironically circular one. Glennon lost his gig in Chicago to Mitchell Trubisky, who was benched this year for Nick Foles. Foles, as you might remember, was the starter in Jacksonville last year prior to being benched for Gardner Minshew II, who was replaced this year by Jake Luton, who is now benched for Glennon. That winding journey has absolutely no impact for fantasy. I just thought it was cool.
Getting back to the fantasy analysis, Chark has been all over the map this season. He entices by mixing big weeks in amongst poor ones, as evident by his last seven outings. During that span, Chark has boomed as the WR3, only to follow it up with fantasy finishes of WR80, WR42, and WR77, then boomed again as the WR5 before checking in as the WR37 and WR53 the past two weeks. He is still seeing a healthy 20.8% target share, but it is anyone’s guess as to how the targets will be distributed with Glennon at the helm.
The Browns represent a winnable matchup for Chark, as they rank 22nd on the season against fantasy receivers. They have tightened up in recent weeks, although that can partially be attributed to playing in poor weather conditions. Chark can always be thrown into lineups with the hope of a big play, but his floor has cratered, leaving him as a risky WR3 this week.
UPDATE: D.J. Chark has officially been ruled for this week.
T.Y. Hilton vs. Tennessee Titans
At this point, you probably shouldn’t have to be told to bench T.Y. Hilton, as the struggling receiver currently sits at WR89 on the season. That is a far cry from what he was drafted to be. An enticing matchup with the Titans, however, could have some managers in deep leagues wanting to roll the dice. I’m here to tell you that gamble will not pay off.
The Titans allow the fewest yards per reception in the NFL. Receivers have gotten it done against Tennessee through volume and touchdowns, as the Titans have allowed the fifth-most completions and the seventh-most receiving scores. Hilton has succeeded through neither avenue. He has caught more than three passes in a game just three times, and only once has he surpassed four receptions, all the while receiving more than five targets only three times. He has also yet to score this year.
You have to go all the way back to Week 5 for the last, and only, somewhat useful fantasy performance from Hilton. He was the WR35 that week, coming ever so close to hitting double-digit fantasy points but falling short at 9.9. That performance has served as Hilton’s peak in 2020 and his valleys include eight finishes of WR50 or lower. This offense spreads the ball around whenever it is not leaning on the run, as Michael Pittman Jr., Zach Pascal, and the Colts’ trio of running backs and tight ends are all integrated on a fluctuating basis. If you have to spin the wheel on a Colts’ pass catcher, it shouldn’t be Hilton.
Jared Cook vs. Denver Broncos
Jared Cook was always going to be mainly touchdown-dependent, as even last year’s successful run saw him reel in only 43 catches despite posting nine touchdowns. Those touchdowns are not going to be there as frequently with Taysom Hill under center. Cook was a favorite of Drew Brees near the end zone, but Hill is prone to use his legs, thus limiting the dependence on the passing game in short-yardage situations. While it is an obviously small sample size, Hill’s start last week resulted in two rushing scores for the mobile quarterback. That same game saw Cook held to one reception on one target for six scoreless yards. Cook laid an egg the week prior and now has only 3.1 fantasy points over his last three weeks combined. It is not only the targets that are concerning. Cook’s snap share has dropped to the 36-38% range over the last three weeks. Limited time on the field equates to limited production.
Denver is eighth against fantasy tight ends, serving up just 8.3 points per game to the position. Hayden Hurst was the TE9 against the Broncos in Week 9, but they have otherwise vehemently shut down tight ends lately. Besides Hurst, Denver has also faced the likes of Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, Hunter Henry, and Travis Kelce over the last five weeks. That quartet of big-names mustered only 21.4 fantasy points combined against Denver, with each finishing between TE16-TE27. There is limited upside with Cook in this matchup, and the risk is higher than ever.
Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett vs. San Francisco 49ers
For those hoping for another late-season surge from Tyler Higbee, a matchup with the division-rival 49ers does not prelude such a narrative. San Francisco is second against fantasy tight ends, yielding a minuscule 6.4 points per game. Mike Gesicki is the only tight end to have finished in the top-fifteen against them and Higbee’s TE16 finish from Week 6 actually serves as the second-best performance versus the 49ers this year.
Higbee has caught more than three passes just twice and has not scored since his three-touchdown explosion in Week 2. Not good, considering only two tight ends have scored against San Francisco on the season. Higbee has failed to top nineteen receiving yards in three of his past five games and has hit the five-target mark only twice on the year. Meanwhile, Everett has scored only once, has received five targets just three times, and has not topped 32 receiving yards since Week 5. The duo has combined to average 12.94 fantasy points per game between them. With the 49ers allowing roughly half of that production to tight ends, there shouldn’t be much output expected from either option. Both tight ends have finished inside the top-sixteen just twice apiece. In a matchup that caps their potential even more than usual, expect major fantasy disappointment.
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