RADIO
Hi, y'all! Twelve weeks of NFL action are in the books and we're moving on to another. Welcome to our Week 13 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. Each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will start off by covering the first set of games that begin at 1:00 PM ET on Sunday, and Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. You can also read about the Monday Night Football matchups and Tuesday Night Football matchup.
If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 12 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Matchups We Love:
Taysom Hill (QB, NO)
Hill remains intriguing due to his rushing upside, totaling 93 yards and four touchdowns on 20 carries in his two starts. The Saints didn't have to do much last week against the Broncos, so we can consider last week a floor game for Hill (QB11). The Falcons should be able to keep this game relatively close, making it more likely that Hill approaches closer to his ceiling. This is a defense allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Fire up Hill as a low-end QB1 this week.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO)
Last time these two teams met, Thomas caught 9-of-12 targets for 104 yards (39% target share). This was Taysom Hill's first start, so the fact that he locked in on Thomas was encouraging. We can throw away last week's tape against the Broncos because the Saints cruised to victory against a quarterback-less team. Expect the Saints to have to throw a bit more in this game, as the Falcons have been tough on the ground (3.57 YPC, 4th in NFL) and vulnerable against the pass (8.19 Y/A, 30th in NFL).
Matchups We Hate:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan gets Julio back for this game, but it's hard to trust a quarterback him in this tough matchup. In his last two games, Ryan has finished as QB17 and QB26. Ryan goes up against a Saints Defense that has allowed only 7.0 points per game and 6.04 yards per attempt in their last four games. The hope for Ryan here is that the Falcons fall behind early and have to air it out, but given the depth of the quarterback position, I'd look elsewhere this week.
Todd Gurley (RB, NO)
Gurley is expected back in the lineup after missing last week, but he's really struggled of late, putting up a combined 209 yards on 80 carries (2.61 YPC) in the previous four games. He goes up against a Saints defense that has allowed only 3.09 YPC during a torrid four-game stretch. Consider Gurley a touchdown-dependent, low-end RB2 for this game.
UPDATE: Todd Gurley is officially questionable for this week, but likely to play.
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst has become a reliable producer at tight end, putting up at least four receptions and 50+ yards in five of his last six games. The issue here is that he put up a goose egg when these two teams last met. The Saints have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game over the last four, so this is a matchup to avoid.
Jared Cook (TE, NO)
Cook gets a terrific matchup against a Falcons Defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but we can't consider him this week given how little he's produced of late - combined one reception for 6 yards in his last three games. Simply put, Cook has lost fantasy relevance with Hill under center.
Other Matchups:
Latavius Murray (RB, NO)
The Falcons have played better under interim head coach Raheem Morris, going 4-2 since firing Dan Quinn. We can expect a close game between two division rivals here, which means fewer touches for Murray. Murray's best path to reach his ceiling is in a game script like last week's contest against the Broncos. I expect the Saints to lean more on Hill's legs and Michael Thomas against this tough Falcons run defense (3.57 YPC allowed, 4th in NFL). Consider Murray a low-end FLEX this week.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara has lost significant fantasy value with Hill as starting quarterback, totaling only one reception on three targets in two games. The Saints have become a run-heavy, low-volume offense with few checkdowns to running backs, so we need to consider Kamara more of an RB2 with Hill at the helm. With that said, I would still consider using Kamara in DFS tournaments due to a likely low rostered percentage.
Julio Jones (WR, ATL):
Julio is expected to return to the lineup this week, but we need to temper our expectations against one of the toughest defenses in football. Even if we remove the Broncos game, the Saints have still allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers in the last four weeks. While Julio remains an every-week WR1, we need to consider this more of a floor game.
UPDATE: Julio Jones is officially questionable for this week, but likely to play.
Calvin Ridley (WR, NO)
Ridley was a bit disappointing last week without Julio, catching 6-of-9 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. With Julio back in the lineup and the tough matchup ahead, we need to downgrade Ridley to more of a high-end WR2. It's just tough to trust this inconsistent Falcons offense against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Matchups We Love:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Trubisky loves to play the Lions - in six career starts, he's thrown for 1,601 yards and 14 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He's also run for 112 yards and a touchdown. The Lions are allowing 23.8 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (26th) and 7.99 yards per attempt (29th). I would absolutely consider Trubisky as a potential streamer and tournament play in DFS this week.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Robinson had encouraging usage with Trubisky back at quarterback last week, catching 8-of-13 targets for 74 yards and two touchdowns. He gets a great matchup against a Lions Defense allowing 25.6 fantasy points per game to wide receivers (25th). Fire up A-Rob as a low-end WR1 this week.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson is coming off a strong game on Thanksgiving, catching 5-of-8 targets for 89 yards against the Texans. The Bears have been vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game this season. If Golladay were to miss this game, we can expect Hock to see an uptick in targets. Given the barren landscape of the position, we need to consider Hock a Top-5 tight end here.
Matchups We Hate:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Stafford hasn't played well this season, currently ranked as QB23 in fantasy points per game. The Bears have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and only 6.85 yards per attempt (7th in NFL). While the Lions should see a boost with the firing of Matt Patricia, we can't trust Stafford in this matchup, even if Kenny Golladay is able to return to the lineup.
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
Jones has failed to eclipse 55 yards in 9-of-11 games this season. The Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game this season. Even if Golladay is out of the lineup, we still need to consider Jones a WR4 in the tough matchup. I would expect the Lions to lean on T.J. Hockenson and D'Andre Swift if Golladay is out for another game.
Other Matchups:
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery had his best game of the season against the Packers last week, putting up 103 yards on 11 carries while catching 5-of-6 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown. The usage in the passing game is especially encouraging. The Lions have struggled against the run this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs. The issue here is that we have seen Montgomery disappoint in strong matchups in the past, namely against the Panthers (25th) and Giants (17th). Consider Monty a volume-based RB2 in this matchup, but temper your expectations.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift returned to practice on Wednesday, making him likely to return to the lineup this week against a Bears Defense allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. While the matchup is tough, Swift has finally received RB1 usage - recall that he had 21 touches for 149 total yards and a touchdown two weeks ago against Washington. Swift is an explosive back with strong receiving skills. Now that he's getting the volume, we need to consider him an RB1 ROS, even in this tough matchup.
UPDATE: D'Andre Swift is doubtful for this week, but is expected to be limited even if he plays.
Player Notes:
Kenny Golladay (WR, DET): Golladay missed Wednesday's practice. If he plays, we can downgrade Hockenson and Jones, while upgrading Swift.
UPDATE: Kenny Golladay has officially been ruled out.
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Matchups We Love:
Colts RBs
Jonathan Taylor is expected to return to the lineup this week, which will make Jordan Wilkins a non-factor in this offense. Prior to last week, Taylor looked like he was taking ahold of this backfield, totaling 26 touches for 114 yards from scrimmage. Nyheim Hines turned in a solid performance last week, catching 8-of-10 targets for 66 yards while chipping in 29 yards on the ground. The Texans' run defense has been abysmal, allowing 299 rush attempts (most in NFL) at 5.23 YPC (worst in NFL). I expect Taylor to take over the lead role, making him an RB2 with upside, while Hines is a decent FLEX.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman Jr. is coming off a down game where he caught 2-of-9 targets for 28 yards, but this is a great spot against a Texans Defense that will be without their best corner in Bradley Roby. The Texans have allowed 8.53 yards per target (23rd) and 39 fantasy points per game (21st) to wide receivers. Expect Pittman to bounce back in this likely shootout.
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU)
Watson lost his favorite target in Will Fuller to suspension, but the team's best corner, Bradley Roby was also suspended, which will put Watson in more pass-heavy game scripts and shootouts. The Colts Defense has regressed lately, allowing Ryan Tannehill and Aaron Rodgers to combine for 532 yards (8.87 Y/A) with four touchdowns and one interception in the last two games. Expect Watson to continue to air it out and put up Top-5 QB numbers, at least in this matchup.
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks already was putting up a 22.22% target share with Fuller in the lineup, so we can expect an increase in volume in Fuller's absence. While it's likely that Cooks will lose some efficiency because he's now the clear-cut number-one option, but we're betting on the volume here. Consider Cooks a high-floor WR2 in his game, as it projects to be a shootout and the Colts are stout in run defense.
Matchups We Hate:
Jordan Akins (TE, HOU)
We're likely to see the Texans move towards more two-tight end sets going forward, which has led to some hype around Akins, but this is a brutal matchup. The Colts are only allowing 9.1 points per game to tight ends, which is the third-best mark in football. I'd avoid Akins here, especially in DFS tournaments, where he could see a higher rostered percentage than usual.
Other Matchups:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
Rivers is in a great spot against a Texans defense allowing 7.83 yards per attempt (27th), but there's risk that the Colts are able to run all over this defense, which would limit Rivers' volume. The good news is that Rivers has been terrific indoors, throwing for 1,062 yards (8.0 Y/A) with nine touchdowns and two interceptions. Expect this to be a close game, so Rivers is firmly in play as a streamer for this week.
Colts TEs
Trey Burton led the way for this group last week, catching 3-of-6 targets for 42 yards and a touchdown, but this has become a situation to avoid unless you're punting at tight end in DFS tournaments. The Texans are tied for 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, so they're an exploitable matchup, but I wouldn't get too excited about playing Burton or Mo Alie-Cox here.
Texans RBs
David Johnson is eligible to return from IR this week, but it remains to be seen if he'll suit up against a Colts defense allowing only 3.81 YPC (7th) this season. If Johnson plays, we can expect a full workload with a potential uptick in targets with Fuller's absence, making him a volume-based RB2. The same goes for Duke Johnson, who finally got it going last week, putting up 80 total yards and a touchdown against the Lions.
UPDATE: David Johnson returned to practice this week, and will play this week.
Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets
Matchups We Love:
Raiders WRs
The Jets continue to give up huge production to opposing wide receivers. Take a look at what the opposing WRs have done against this secondary since Week 4: DeVante Parker (WR11), Keenan Allen (WR1), Jakobi Meyers (WR4), Tyreek Hill (WR5), Cole Beasley (WR11), DeAndre Hopkins (WR8), Tim Patrick (WR7). Last week, Hunter Renfrow (7 REC, 73 YDS) outproduced Nelson Agholor (5 REC, 54 YDS) and Henry Ruggs (3 REC, 56 YDS). It's tough to determine which Raider WR will have a big game here, but I'd bet that one will and my money's on Ruggs.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller was very disappointing in a smash spot against the Falcons. He gets another strong matchup here against a Jets Defense that is tied for 25th in fantasy points per game to tight ends. Waller is the defacto WR1 on this Raiders team, so perhaps we see him have the big game against this secondary instead of the wide receivers.
Other Matchups:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr laid an egg against the Falcons last week, but he has a bounce-back spot against a Jets defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. There's always risk for a blowout game when a team is going against the Jets and the Raiders play rather conservatively, so it's unlikely that Carr will shred this secondary. Carr can be viewed as a potential streamer, but there's not much upside here, so consider him a lukewarm play.
Raiders RBs
Josh Jacobs missed Wednesday's practice, so there's a chance that we could see Devontae Booker shoulder the load in this one. The Jets have actually been stout against the run, limiting RBs to only 3.45 YPC (4th) since Week 8. Opponents have preferred to pass all over this secondary, as the Jets have become a pass-funnel defense. If Jacobs can play, I'd consider him a volume-based RB2, with Booker more of an upside FLEX if Jacobs can't suit up.
UPDATE: Josh Jacobs has officially been ruled out.
Jets WRs
The Jets WRs have a good matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. Denzel Mims led the team with a 40% air-yard share and 26.56 target share, so he's my preferred play of the group. The problem is that Sam Darnold continues to make poor reads and avoid open receivers, so we need to temper our expectations here.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans
Matchups We Love:
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry came alive last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. Since Odell Beckham's season-ending injury in Week 7, Landry has put up a 32.58% target share, 32.57% air-yard share while accounting for 41.67% of red-zone targets - that's WR1 usage. He now takes on a Titans Defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Browns RBs
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are in another great spot against a Titans defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. We could see more touches for Hunt this week, as the Browns are projected to be playing from behind as 5.5-point underdogs, which could lead to more passing situations, where Hunt is the preferred option. Consider Chubb an RB1 with Hunt as an upside FLEX play. I like Hunt as a pivot play in DFS tournaments.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
The Browns just allowed Mike Glennon to throw for 235 yards and two touchdowns, so this is clearly an exploitable defense. While top pass-rusher Myles Garrett will be back in the lineup, the team will still be without its best corner in Denzel Ward. The Browns rank 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. I expect this to be a close, high-scoring game (54-point total), so there will be scoring opportunities for Tannehill.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
With Myles Garrett in the lineup, the Browns were allowing only 3.86 YPC (8th), so this isn't as easy of a matchup as it looks. However, Henry is an absolute beast and this is likely to be a high-scoring game, so there's a good chance that he'll find the endzone once again. Fire up King Henry as a top three RB1 once again this week.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown continues to make big plays and now gets a strong matchup against this Browns secondary that just allowed rookie Collin Johnson to go off for four receptions, 96 yards and a touchdown. The Browns are in trouble against this absolute beast of a receiver this week. Consider Brown a top-10 WR against this vulnerable defense in a projected shootout.
Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Corey Davis continues to churn along, catching all three of his targets for 70 yards against the Colts last week. He's an upside WR3 against this Browns Defense that ranks 22nd in fantasy points per game to wide receivers. I love Davis as a pivot play in DFS tournaments to gain leverage off Brown and Henry owners this week.
Other Matchups:
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
Smith is extremely touchdown dependent, as he's been asked to block more often with Taylor Lewan on the shelf. This game should have several scoring opportunities, so Jonnu remains on the radar given the volatile nature of the tight end position. The good news is that he's totaled 12 targets in the last two games after combining 10 targets in his previous four. The Browns are tied for 29th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
UPDATE: Jonnu Smith has officially been ruled out.
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield is in a great spot against a Titans defense allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, but there's not much upside here because the Browns are too run-heavy. Even last week when he shredded the Jaguars secondary, he still finished as QB12. Mayfield would need the Titans to jump out to an early lead in order to provide adequate production. Consider him a lukewarm play.
Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
The Titans rank 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, so this is a great spot for Hooper, but he's also limited by lack of volume, especially with Jarvis Landry dominating target share of late. I would consider Hooper on the TE1/2 fringe. Hopefully, Baker doesn't miss him wide open in the endzone once again.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Matchups We Love:
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Since Preston Williams suffered a season-ending injury, Parker has posted a 30% target share (8th) and 36% air-yard share (17th). The Bengals rank 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. Consider Parker a strong WR2 play in this game with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki came alive last week, catching 2-of-5 targets for 35 yards and a touchdown. He takes on a Bengals Defense that just allowed Evan Engram to go off for 129 yards and ranks 28th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. Gesicki has a good chance at finding the endzone for the second consecutive week.
Matchups We Hate:
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
Bernard continues to underwhelm, totaling only 49 yards on ten touches last week. He's now failed to eclipse 55 total yards in each of his last three games. Perhaps he's starting to wear down from his increased volume in Joe Mixon's absence. There's not much scoring potential here, so we need to avoid Bernard this week.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Higgins saved his line with a touchdown last week (5 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD). The Dolphins are tough on the perimeter with cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones. There's not a lot of scoring potential for Higgins with the way this offense looked with Brandon Allen at the helm, so he's a player to avoid this week.
Other Matchups:
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Boyd caught 3-of-6 targets for 15 yards last week, but I still believe that he'll be the most valuable wide receiver on this team with Allen due to the short-to-intermediate routes. The Dolphins are more susceptible to the middle of the field, so I expect Boyd to turn in a much better game this week.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA)
Fitz is expected to get another start this week. He takes on a Bengals defense allowing 7.3 yards per attempt (20th). The risk here is that Cincinnati won't be able to move the ball on this Dolphins Defense, so we could see Miami take an early lead and control the game on the ground. Fitz is still on the streaming radar, but I don't like his upside this week, so he's a lukewarm play.
UPDATE: Tua Tagovailoa is now expected to start this week.
Dolphins RBs
Both Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed returned to practice on Wednesday, which makes it difficult to decide who to play in this backfield, since we don't know how the touches will be allocated with both of these backs on the field. The Bengals run defense has been porous, allowing 5.07 yards per carry (31st), so this is an exploitable matchup. The projected game script is also favorable with the Dolphins as 11-point favorites. I'd expect Gaskin to get the bulk of the workload, but there's a lack of clarity here, so I'd consider him an upside FLEX.
UPDATE: Myles Gaskin has been officially activated from IR and will play this week. Salvon Ahmed is officially listed as doubtful.
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings
Matchups We Love:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
My sleeper of the week, the Jags defense has allowed 23 touchdown passes and the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Cousins has three games with a three-touchdown, zero-interception stat line in his last four appearances. I'm all in on Cousins this week, who honestly sneaks into low-end QB1 territory for me.
James Robinson (RB, JAC)
He just keeps producing! That'll happen when you've gotten 22 or more carries in four of the past five games. Minnesota is susceptible to big days on the ground, so you're going to want to keep Robinson in your lineups as a solid RB1 play.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
This game has the makings of an offensive explosion for both sides. Cook had just 61 yards last game, and anytime the word "just" is juxtaposed with the phrase "61 yards," you know we're talking about a great player. Cook's a weekly RB1 start who you should pay up for in DFS.
Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
It looks like Thielen will be back. This defense has a lot of issues, so feel confident using Thielen as the WR1 you usually use him as. And with Jefferson, Thielen's return would cut into his upside a little, but he's still been one of the NFL's most explosive receivers as a rookie and should be viewed as a high-upside WR2, especially against a team allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
UPDATE: Adam Thielen has officially been activated and will play.
Matchups We Hate:
Figuring Out What's Going On With Jaguars Wide Receivers
So, if D.J. Chark Jr. plays, he's a strong WR3 option with upside who needs to be in your lineup.
But beyond that -- I don't know. We thought Laviska Shenault Jr. would take a big step up last week, but he had three catches for 31 yards. Keelan Cole Sr. also could have stepped up, but had three catches for 44 yards. It was Collin Johnson who went off, with four catches for 96 and a score, but there's no way you trust Johnson outside of maybe doing some wild GPP stack of him and Glennon just to see what happens, right?
Tight Ends
Provided Irv Smith Jr. (groin/back) plays this week, both teams have the same issue: each have two tight ends splitting snaps, which limits the upside across the board for all the players. For the Jags, it's James O'Shaughnessy and Tyler Eifert. For Minnesota, it's Smith and Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph has upside if Smith is out again, but beyond that, I'd avoid this position group.
Other Matchups:
Mike Glennon (QB, JAC)
Glennon had 235 yards and two touchdowns last week without an interception, and now faces a Vikings Defense that's allowed the second-most touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks. Now, I'm not saying to actively play Mike Glennon, but as a cheap value guy in DFS? Yeah, that could get interesting.
Matchups Analysis - 4:05/4:25 PM ET Games
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
The Giants allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, but they've had a really easy schedule when it comes to opposing passers. I don't trust this defense enough to make me pivot off of Wilson in any leagues or to avoid him in DFS. Lock him in as a QB1 play.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
With Daniel Jones likely out, I'd expect the Giants to lean on Gallman early. He has at least one touchdown in each of the past five games, and while he hasn't been particularly efficient during this run of time, volume has given him opportunities. Consider him a solid RB2 play.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Honestly, Metcalf has reached "start him as WR1 and don't worry about any arguments against doing so" level. He's just such a mismatch down the field and the perfect weapon for Russell Wilson.
Matchups We Hate:
Colt McCoy (QB, NYG)
Don't let the matchup with Seattle fool you. The Seahawks Defense has been playing better, and Colt McCoy is still Colt McCoy, even if his seven starts since 2012 might have made you forget that he struggled early in his career as a full-time starter. McCoy isn't going to do a whole lot, and he isn't someone I'm picking as a streaming play with Daniel Jones sidelined.
Darius Slayton (WR, NYG)
Golden Tate out targeted him nine to two last week and Slayton didn't have a single catch. If Slayton really has dropped down to being the third option, I can't imagine playing him this week, especially when last week's zero is fresh in my mind.
Other Matchups:
Chris Carson/Carlos Hyde (RB, SEA)
I want to believe Carson jumps right back into the lead role after being eased in last week, but maybe the Seahawks just really want to give Carlos Hyde some chances? New York has been decent against the run, so I might shy away from both backs in DFS, but Carson did do a good job with the touches he had last week, so I'm good with playing him as an RB2. As for Hyde, he was incredibly inefficient but had 17 touches, which is a lot! You could talk me into playing him as a low-end RB3 because of potential upside.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
He's turned into the top receiver in New York since returning to the lineup, with eight or more targets in all but one game since his Week 7 return, plus six or more catches in every game. He hasn't done, like, a ton with those chances, but we know the Seahawks defense has had its holes, and even though I don't trust Colt McCoy this week, I still think Shepard has solid upside as a WR3 play.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
I don't feel quite as good as I do about Metcalf because Lockett has had some fairly low lows, like last week's three receptions for 23 yards. But if the Giants Defense focuses a lot on Metcalf, Lockett can find some good room underneath, and I'm still starting him as a WR2, albeit one who does worry me due to his recent tendency to not play like a fantasy WR2.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Seattle allows the 12th-most yards per game to tight ends and Engram had 129 yards last week. So, why am I low-ish on him? Because his floor is lower than I'm comfortable with, as in Week 10 he had just two catches for 15 yards despite the Eagles being about as good against tight ends as Seattle.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Follow the usage. Woods has been targeted 27 times in the last two games. TWENTY SEVEN. After uneven usage earlier in the season, Jared Goff is looking his way an increasingly high percentage of the time. Bet on that continuing and play him as a high-end WR2.
Matchups We Hate:
Malcolm Brown (RB, LAR)
With just six carries and three targets in the last two games, we can finally give up on Brown.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Bad matchup + just eight carries in the past two games? Yeah, I'm avoiding Edmonds this week, who I see as just a low-end RB4 at best.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Coming off a three-catch, 19-yard game, Kirk is someone who always has a high ceiling, but also is always a threat to not get anywhere close to that ceiling. That's bee the story three games in a row. I'm not ready to bet on that changing this week. He's a WR4 play.
Tyler Higbee, Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)
As long as the duo keeps playing similar snaps, I'm not sure how you trust either against a Cardinals Defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the tight end position.
Other Matchups:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Last week, Jared Goff cost me a playoff spot in Scott Fish Bowl, so am I a little bitter here? Yeah, for sure. Goff's had an up-and-down year, failing to throw a touchdown in two of the last three games but then also throwing three TDs against a good Tampa team. He almost seems matchup-proof: he can be good against good defenses or bad against bad defenses, or good against bad ones and bad against good ones! You basically need to just treat him as a QB2 each week with a decent ceiling.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray has just 10 carries over the past two games, and his 34 passing attempts last week resulted in just 170 yards and no touchdowns. It was the first time all year Murray didn't have a passing score. He's hitting a bit of a wall right now it seems, and makes him tough to trust against a defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs. Still, Murray's upside means you still should treat him as a low-end QB1.
Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
Last week, Cam Akers had nine carries for 84 yards and a touchdown, with 61 of those coming on one play. Henderson saw 10 carries, but got just 19 yards. It seems that we might at least now know that these two are the two viable backs in L.A.? But we don't know who gets the most usage, making both low-end RB3 plays.
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)
The Rams allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but Drake's been playing well enough -- three touchdowns in the past two games -- that he's fine as a low-end RB2 play despite the matchup.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
While Woods has been on fire when it comes to targets, Kupp had 13 against Tampa but then saw that drop to five last game, with his two receptions setting a season low. His production is a little too volatile right now, which has me staying off of him in DFS, even if I play him as a WR2 in season-long.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
The theme of this game is "this is a tough matchup!" We'd like to think Hopkins is matchup proof, but considering he's posted five receptions and 55 yards or fewer in three of the last four games, we have to conclude that if Kyler's not 100 percent, Hopkins isn't going to be the safe DFS option you want him to be. But definitely start him as a WR1 in season-long.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, NE)
Hard to know what to make of the last two games for Newton. Against Houston, he threw for 365 yards. A week later against Arizona, he threw for 84 yards. But the Chargers allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position and are tied for fifth-most rushing touchdowns allowed to QBs, which is good news for Newton, who has nine rushing touchdowns this year. He's a high-end QB2.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert is very, very, very good at football. He's had 300 or more yards in three of the last four games and has just one game with under 264 yards. The Patriots haven't been bad against the pass, but Herbert's been playing too well to bench.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
HE'S BACK.
Ekeler played for the first time since Week 4 last game, and he had 14 carries and 16 targets. I don't care about the matchup here -- volume alone makes Ekeler an RB1 play.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Ekeler had 16 targets last week. How did that impact Keenan Allen? Well, he still saw 10 targets and still scored a touchdown, so the answer is "not too much." His yardage was lower than you'd like, but he has touchdowns in five consecutive games, so keep using him as a WR1.
Matchups We Hate:
Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd (WR, NE)
While both are playable as DFS value guys, I wouldn't feel comfortable with either of them in season-long leagues at this point with the potentially low-volume of the passing game and the fact that the two seem to be trading off good games.
Hunter Henry (TE, LAC)
New England allows the fifth-most points to tight ends despite playing an incredibly tough slate of tight ends. Henry's a TE2 play in season-long and someone I won't be using in my DFS lineups.
Other Matchups:
Damien Harris, James White (RB, NE)
The Chargers have allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to running backs, with most of that production coming on the ground. That makes Harris -- who had 14 carries last week to White's five -- an interesting RB2 option, though I'd feel much better if he was my RB3. As for White, he had just five carries last week but two touchdowns. Low floor, but he does have a high ceiling that makes him an RB4 option.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
A boom/bust guy who might trend more towards bust with Ekeler back to absorb targets, I think you continue to use Williams as a WR4 despite the risk, because when he hits, he hits.
Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers
Matchups We Love:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
In five games in November, Rodgers completed 71.68 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions. He was sacked just four times. He had a rushing score. Past concerns about Rodgers have gone out the window. He's a strong QB1 play.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
With how bad the Packers have been against running backs -- third-most fantasy points allowed, in large part because no team has allowed more receiving yards to backs -- I think you have to play Sanders like an RB1 this week, even if his lack of usage last week -- six carries and three targets -- was worrisome.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Matchups don't worry me with Adams, who has nine of more targets in every full game he's played and at least one touchdown in six consecutive appearances. He's found the end zone against defenses like the 49ers and Colts. He's torched the Vikings for five touchdowns in two games. Adams is a set-and-forget WR1.
Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Tight ends are the wide receivers of Philly. Ertz is off the IR with his ankle sprain and looking to play for the first time since Week 6. Even if he's eased back into things, his elite upside makes him a TE1 play due to positional scarcity. And Goedert has been on fire the past two games, including a seven-catch, 75-yard effort against the Seahawks that saw him catch his second TD in two weeks, so I'm not sure how fantasy managers can bench him either. Especially with how much more tight ends are getting used here than the mishmash of receivers on this team.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, PHI)
Even though it looks like Wentz probably won't be benched for Jalen Hurts, he's still thrown a league-leading 15 interceptions and faces a Packers Defense allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Eagles Wide Receivers
This is a mess, isn't it? Reagor is who I'd play if I had to play someone, as he's been getting targets, but last week in a juicy matchup, those seven targets turned into three catches for 11 yards. Travis Fulgham has four total catches in the past three games. Greg Ward Jr. has 12 receiving yards in the past two games. And Alshon Jeffery just had his first two receptions of the year last game, and they resulted in 15 yards.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
While you have to keep playing Jones as an RB1 in season-long, this doesn't feel like a week to deploy him in DFS. His grip on the lead job in Green Bay isn't clear enough with Jamaal Williams lurking and the Eagles have allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.
Allen Lazard (WR, GB)
Definitely think there's room for Lazard to do things in Green Bay even with Adams dominating, and last week's touchdown catch showed why. Think he has a fairly low floor, but you can never completely fade a talented receiver who's catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes had his worst game of the year against Denver earlier in the season. He still threw for 200 yards and a touchdown. But that was a bad weather game, and this one should not be a bad weather game in Kansas City, so don't stress it: Mahomes is the QB1.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)
The Broncos have been gashed on the ground lately, allowing 200-plus rushing yards in three of the last five games. Even if Edwards-Helaire has been inconsistent, this is the matchup to have him in your lineups as a high-end RB2 with upside. Denver can't stop anything on the ground.
UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness) is officially listed as questionable.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
TYREEK HILL.
Last week, Hill had one of -- if not THE -- best wide receiver games I can remember, catching 13 passes for 269 yards and three scores. He now has multiple touchdown catches in three of the last four games. He has three 100-yard games in a row. He's peaking at the right time for fantasy managers and should be treated as a top-end WR1 moving forward. Will a Mahomes/Hill stack bankrupt you in DFS? Maybe. Should you still play that stack at least some? Yes.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
He's an elite tight end who is facing one of his tougher matchups of the year. This is the only team to hold him under 50 receiving yards all year. Still, weather impacted that game, and in the four weeks since, Kelce hasn't had fewer than eight catches or 82 yards. He's on a hot streak and it should continue, even if the floor drops more than usual.
Matchups We Hate:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
Will he score more fantasy points than Kendall Hinton did last week for the Broncos? Sure. Am I starting a guy who's completing 55.6 percent of his passes with seven touchdowns and 11 interceptions, especially against a Chiefs Defense that's fourth in interceptions? No, I don't think I am.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
The Chiefs defense scares me too much to recommend playing Jeudy on a day where I think Denver will really struggle to move the football. He's got solid upside each week based on his talent, but this doesn't feel like the matchup to count on that upside.
Other Matchups:
Melvin Gordon III, Phillip Lindsay (RB, DEN)
We can assume that the Broncos run less this week with a real QB, returning us to the world where Gordon and Lindsay take turns hurting each other's value. Gordon has topped 46 yards once in the last five games and hasn't had a reception since Week 9. Lindsay has topped 23 yards once in the last four games. The fact that both players had their one good game against Miami probably says more about that game than about either player. Both guys feel like risky RB3 plays.
Sammy Watkins (WR, KC)
Watkins is back, and he has a good matchup, so if you need a WR3/4 with upside, he could be your man. Just remember that he has four or fewer catches in two-thirds of his games this season.
Noah Fant (TE, KC)
The owner of last week's lone reception for Denver, Fant's been a fairly low-ceiling play all year, but he does seem to end up with around 50 receiving yards and three or four catches most of the time, so he's a good floor play at tight end.
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Washington at Pittsburgh and Buffalo at San Francisco
Click here to read about the Monday Night Football matchups - a doubleheader between the Washington Football Team and Pittsburgh Steelers, followed by the Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers.
Matchups Analysis - Tuesday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens
Click here to read about the Tuesday Night Football matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens.
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