RADIO
Hi, y'all... Happy New Year to everyone! Congrats to everyone who has made it this far in their fantasy leagues. Sixteen weeks of NFL action are in the books, and while most fantasy championships have concluded, there's some leagues who fight to the bitter end and go to the final week. It's also a great time to play DFS! Welcome to our Week 17 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football.
This week we'll be analyzing every game on the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information.
Frank Ammirante will be covering the early games as well as one late game, , while Justin Carter will take you home with his analysis of the late afternoon and evening games. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow us on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and @juscarts, and feel free to ask away. Let's help guide you to that Week 17 victory!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 PM ET Games
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Matchups We Love:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Gaskin tore it up in his return to the lineup, putting up five receptions for 169 total yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. The Dolphins just need to win this game to make the playoffs, taking on a Bills team that really does not have much to play for, having already locked in a number-three seed at worst. Expect the Dolphins to lean on Gaskin against a Bills Defense that ranks 17th in run DVOA.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki had a great game last time these two teams met, catching 8-of-11 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown. He'll likely be the top option in this passing game with DeVante Parker still banged-up with a hamstring injury. We can fire up Gesicki as a Top-10 tight end this week.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley is week-to-week with a leg injury, John Brown was just placed on the COVID list, and we could see the Bills rest Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs for the latter part of this game. That means that Davis will have an opportunity to act as the top option in this passing game. We could see an uptick in volume for this promising rookie. Fire him up as an upside WR3 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
There's no way that you can trust Tua with the way he's playing right now, acting as a game manager for this Dolphins team. Tua has averaged less than six yards per pass attempt in each of his last two starts. Expect the Dolphins to lean on the running game in this one.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA)
Parker got in a limited practice on Wednesday, so we could see him suit up for this must-win game. The Bills rank 15th in pass DVOA and are tied for the second-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. I wouldn't consider Parker this week given the tough matchup and injury concerns.
Josh Allen (QB, BUF) & Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Allen and Diggs have had phenomenal seasons as elite players at their respective positions, but there's a high risk here that the Bills bench them for the second half of this game. The Chiefs have locked up the number-one seed, so there's no chance for the Bills to secure a bye week with a win. I'd bet on Allen and Diggs resting at some point in this game, so we can't trust them in fantasy.
Other Matchups:
Bills RBs
There's a chance that the Bills lean on their running game, especially if they rest Allen and Diggs at some point. That's good news for Zack Moss and Devin Singletary, taking on a Dolphins Defense that ranks 23rd in run DVOA. I'd consider them both as RB3 dart-throws, especially in DFS tournaments.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Since Week 12, Jackson ranks as QB1 in fantasy points per game, rushing for 333 yards and four touchdowns during that span. He should be able to keep it rolling against a Bengals Defense that ranks 20th in run DVOA. The Ravens just need to win this game to make the playoffs, so there's no risk of their starters being benched at any point. Expect Jackson to finish his season strong.
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
Since Week 11, Dobbins ranks as RB16 in fantasy points per game. He's taken over the lead role in this backfield, making him an upside RB2 against a Bengals defense allowing 5.08 yards per carry (31st in NFL). This projects as a positive game script with the Ravens as 12-point favorites.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Since Week 10, Andrews ranks as TE3 in fantasy points per game. He's racked up 38 targets during that span. Andrews has a great matchup against a Bengals defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) & Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
Higgins came alive last week, catching 6-of-9 targets for 99 yards and a touchdown, but he now takes on a Ravens Defense that should be able to pressure Brandon Allen, which will make it difficult to find Higgins downfield. Last time these two teams met, the Ravens sacked Joe Burrow seven times and held the Bengals to three points. Tyler Boyd is expected back for this one. He's my preferred play here because he'll get shorter targets lining up in the slot, but I don't recommend either of the two wideouts in this tough matchup.
Other Matchups:
Giovani Bernard (RB, CIN)
Bernard should be able to rack up receptions because the Ravens should be able to generate pressure up front, forcing Allen to check it down to Bernard while under duress. While he's given way to Samaje Perine lately, Bernard remains the preferred play in this backfield. Consider him a FLEX play.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Brown has come alive in recent weeks, scoring a touchdown in four of his last five games. While the Bengals rank 27th in pass DVOA, the risk here is that it becomes a run-heavy game script with the Ravens as heavy favorites. Consider Brown a volatile WR3 in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Matchups We Love:
Browns RBs
This projects as a positive game script for Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt with the Steelers resting their starters and the Browns favored by 10 points. The Steelers have given up big games to Jonathan Taylor and Giovani Bernard in the last two games, as they've struggled to stop the run ever since losing Bud Dupree for the season. The Browns should be able to control this game on the ground. Fire up Chubb as an RB1 and Hunt as an upside FLEX.
Matchups We Hate:
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense
Ben Roethlisberger will not play in this game, as the Steelers have nothing to play for, so they've decided to rest their veteran quarterback. That leaves Mason Rudolph as the starter for this game and we all know how he looked last year. It would not be surprising to see other starters like Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and James Conner also rest for most, if not all of this game. This is a situation to avoid entirely. The Browns are 10-point favorites for a reason - the Steelers will treat this like a preseason game.
Other Matchups:
Baker Mayfield (QB, CLE)
Mayfield struggled against the Jets last week, but this is a bounce-back spot against the resting Steelers. Mayfield should have Jarvis Landry and Rashard Higgins back for this one. Expect an improvement in his efficiency, but temper your expectations due to the projected run-heavy game script.
Browns WRs & Austin Hooper (TE, CLE)
Landry and Higgins are likely to return, but the situation is similar to Mayfield because I expect the Browns to lean on their running game. Hooper is coming off a big game where he 7-of-15 targets for 71 yards, but his volume will return to normal with the receivers back in the fold. I'd consider Landry and Higgins as volatile WR3/4 options with Hooper as more of a TE2. This is likely to be a low-scoring game with a 42-point total.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Matchups We Love:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins is in a smash spot facing a Lions Defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. We could see the Vikings air it out in this meaningless game, especially with Dalvin Cook out for this one. Consider Cousins a Top-12 fantasy quarterback for Week 17.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson should have no problem getting loose downfield against a Lions defense that is tied for the most points allowed to wide receivers. The rookie phenom needs only 47 receiving yards to pass Randy Moss' team record for rookie yardage. I expect the Vikings to feed Jefferson in this one, making him an elite WR1 this week.
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN)
Smith has come alive with Kyle Rudolph sidelined, totaling 13-of-17 targets for 153 yards and three touchdowns in his last three games. The Lions rank 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, so this is a good matchup for Irv to keep it rolling.
Other Matchups:
Vikings RBs
The Vikings running back usage is a bit unclear with Cook out. Alexander Mattison should see the lead role, but there's always a chance that he splits some time with Ameer Abdullah or Mike Boone. The Lions rank 26th in run DVOA, so this is a great matchup, but temper your expectations due to uncertainty with volume.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen is in a great spot like teammate Jefferson, but as a 30-year old wide receiver, there's a greater chance that he sits out at some point in this game since the Vikings are eliminated from playoff contention. For that reason, we need to temper our expectations in this matchup.
Lions Offense
Matthew Stafford is expected to play through his thumb, ribs, and ankle injury to finish off the season, but how can we really trust him in this game? There's definitely an increased risk of re-injury, so we can't rely on Stafford despite the strong matchup against a Vikings Defense that is tied for 12th in fantasy points per game. If Stafford can't play, we have seen how poorly the Lions have looked with Chase Daniel at the helm. D'Andre Swift put up 80 total yards, while Marvin Jones (3 REC, 19 YDS) and T.J. Hockenson (4 REC, 23 YDS) both struggled. I just don't feel comfortable using any of these Lions players. I'm keeping them in the lukewarm section due to the strong matchup, but I won't be playing them in any DFS format.
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Matchups We Love:
Ty Johnson (RB, NYJ)
Johnson is slated for the lead back role with La'Mical Perine placed on the COVID reserve list and Frank Gore out for the season. He's got a great matchup against a Patriots Defense that ranks 32nd in run DVOA. We can consider Johnson a FLEX play in this game.
Jamison Crowder (WR, NYJ)
Crowder has re-established himself as Sam Darnold's favorite target, catching 13-of-17 targets for 158 yards and a touchdown in the last two games. This puts him in play as a WR3 against a Patriots defense that just got shredded by Josh Allen for 320 yards and four touchdowns. Crowder is the only Jets receiver worth playing in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots RBs
Sony Michel ran for 69 yards on 10 carries last week, but it's tough to trust any of these Patriots running backs against a Jets Defense that ranks 9th in run DVOA. Expect Michel to split time with James White in this game, as Damien Harris looks likely to miss this one.
Other Matchups:
Cam Newton (QB, NE) & Patriots WRs
The Jets defense has played better lately, limiting Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff in the last two weeks, making this a tougher matchup than it looks. Cam Newton has thrown for less than 100 yards in three of his last five games, which keeps Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd off the radar. We simply can't trust them with this lack of volume. The only reason why they're in this section is that despite recent success, this is still the Jets that they're playing. Still, I wouldn't consider using them in any format.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke looked good last week, totaling 105 yards on 19 carries, putting him back in the circle of trust against a Giants Defense that ranks 21st in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs. Expect the Cowboys to lean on Zeke in a game that projects to be close and low-scoring.
Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG)
Gallman is in a good spot against a Cowboys Defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. While Gallman has fallen off in the last three weeks, combining for 27 carries and 113 yards, he remains in play as a FLEX in this strong matchup.
Giants WRs
Darius Slayton has totaled 25 targets in his last three games. He also leads the Giants in air yards. The fantasy production hasn't been there yet, but this is a good opportunity for a big game against a Cowboys defense that is tied for the last in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. I would consider Slayton an upside WR3 this week and he's one of my favorite tournament plays in DFS here. Sterling Shepard has been limited with a rib injury in practice this week, but he's expected to play. He's coming off a big game where caught 9-of-12 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown, but I prefer Slayton due to his higher upside. Consider Shepard a WR4 this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL)
Dalton shredded the Eagles for 377 yards and three touchdowns last week, but he has a tougher matchup against a Giants defense allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I would only consider using Dalton in SuperFlex formats this week.
Other Matchups:
Cowboys WRs
The Giants rank 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is a tougher matchup for the Cowboys. Amari Cooper has put up 100+ yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games, making him the top option in this passing game. Consider Cooper on the WR2/WR3 fringe. Michael Gallup has come alive in recent weeks, scoring four touchdowns in his last four games. We can consider him on the WR3/WR4 fringe. CeeDee Lamb has scored a receiving, rushing, and return touchdown in his last two games. I'd rank him as a volatile WR3 for this matchup. It's hard to think that multiple Cowboys wide receivers will put up strong production in this game, which leaves them in the lukewarm section for this week.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Engram continues to see strong volume (17 targets in his last two games), keeping him firmly in play as a TE1. The Cowboys defense is tied for 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but we have to fire up Engram due to his usage. I prefer targeting Slayton in DFS this week, though.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchups We Love:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan has come alive in the last two weeks, throwing for 656 yards and five touchdowns. The Bucs rank 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. We can expect the Falcons to air it out with the way that the Bucs have shut down opposing running games this season (3.17 YPC, 1st in NFL).
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley continues to put up elite production with Julio Jones out of the lineup, totaling 100+ yards in four consecutive games. He's in another great spot against the pass-funnel Bucs defense that ranks 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. Ridley is a Top-10 WR1 in this matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Falcons Running Backs
There's no way we can consider Todd Gurley, Ito Smith, or Brian Hill because of how tough this Bucs run defense is and how sporadic the backfield usage is in Atlanta. I wouldn't consider using any of these backs in any format. Focus on the Falcons passing game in this matchup.
Bucs Running Backs
Ronald Jones is expected back for this game, but it's unclear if he'll retain full volume in his first game back. We could see the Bucs limit his workload since this game doesn't matter too much for playoff implications. The Falcons Defense has been stout against the run, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game, so this is a tough matchup and a clear avoid.
Other Matchups:
Hayden Hurst (TE, ATL)
Hurst has gotten back on track in his last two games, totaling nine receptions, 68 yards, and two touchdowns. He's on the TE1 radar against a Bucs defense that is tied for 21st in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends. The issue here is that we have seen how low Hurst's floor can be (four games with two receptions or fewer and less than ten yards).
Bucs Passing Game
The Bucs offense has a great matchup on paper against a Falcons defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and ranking 30th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. The issue here is that it's unclear if the starters will play for the entire game. Tampa Bay can secure the 5th seed with a victory, which would put them in line to play the NFC East winner in the first round, but there's definitely risk that they would rest Tom Brady at some point, given his advanced age. We also have to consider the way the Falcons defense has improved in recent weeks - they just held Patrick Mahomes to only 6.3 yards per attempt.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
The Saints can clinch the number-two seed with a win here with the outside chance of securing the top seed with some help in other matchups, so there's a chance that we see the starters play the entire game. Kamara has a great matchup against a Panthers Defense that ranks 21st in run DVOA. He should have another strong game as the focal point of the Saints offense.
Update: The entire Saints RB room was placed on the COVID Reserve list, leaving Ty Montgomery in the lead role. Consider him an upside FLEX and must-play in DFS cash games.
Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)
Samuel gets the biggest bump in value with Mike Davis' absence, as the Panthers may opt to use Samuel more out of the backfield. He's coming off a strong game against Washington, where he totaled 52 rush yards and 106 receiving yards. Samuel is my preferred option in this Panthers offense this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Saints Passing Game
It's tough to trust anyone in this Saints passing game besides Kamara with the spread-out usage we have seen since Drew Brees has returned to the lineup. This offense is centered around Kamara, so we can't really consider Brees as anything more than a desperation play in SuperFlex/low-end streamer, with Emmanuel Sanders on the WR3/4 fringe and Jared Cook on the TE1/2 fringe. The Panthers rank 17th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, 9th to wide receivers, and tied for 21st to tight ends. I wouldn't consider attacking this game in DFS formats.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, CAR) & Panthers RBs
Bridgewater and the running game are underwhelming options against a Saints Defense that ranks 4th in pass DVOA and 2nd in run DVOA. I would only consider using Bridgewater in SuperFlex leagues. Rodney Smith figures to take on the lead role with Mike Davis on the shelf, but it's unclear on how much volume he'll get in this matchup, making him a clear avoid.
Other Matchups:
D.J. Moore & Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Moore and Anderson take on a Saints defense that is tied for 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers, but it's tough to determine who the preferred play is here. It's unlikely that more than two Panthers wide receivers will provide strong production, as I don't anticipate this game to be too much of a shootout (48-point total). Moore has been the top fantasy WR in this offense, so I'd go with him as a volatile WR2 over Anderson (WR3).
Hi, Justin taking over now. Thanks, Frank!
Week 17 is such a strange week, with so many players sitting. So, I've decided to structure my half of this week's article a little differently. Instead of breaking things into the usual three sections, I'll be doing two sections: players I'd play this week and players I would not play this week. The line between loving a player and just feeling okay about a player no longer exists.
Matchups Analysis - 4:25 PM ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
Players I Would Play:
Philip Rivers (QB, IND)
These teams haven't played since the season opener, when Rivers threw a pair of interceptions and the Jaguars got their first -- and likely only -- win of the season. But Rivers did have 363 yards in that one, his second-highest mark of the season, and the Jaguars Defense is even worse now than it was back then, so we should expect a solid showing from Rivers, who rates as a high-end QB2.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Must win game. Bad defense. A player with a firm grip on the starting role. Taylor has as good a chance as any back in the league to find himself in the end zone.
Zach Pascal, T.Y. Hilton (WR, IND)
I'd rank Pascal slightly over Hilton since Pascal has three touchdowns in the past two games, but both are startable this week against this defense.
Jack Doyle (TE, IND)
Obviously always a risk to play a Colts tight end because there are three of them, but Doyle was targeted six times last week and would be the guy I'd pick if I really needed a mid-end TE2 play.
Dare Ogunbowale (RB, JAC)
Ogunbowale ended up playing the James Robinson role with Robinson out last week. Well, Robinson is out again. Ogunbowale doesn't have that RB1 upside of Robinson, but would be a solid RB2 play, though there is some risk.
Players I Would Not Play:
Mike Glennon (QB, JAC)
Glennon has looked competent at times. I still wouldn't play him with a fantasy title on the line.
D.J. Chark Jr., Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAC)
The Jaguars have nothing to play for. The Colts and their defense do. I'd stay away from this passing game, even if Shenault has played well with Glennon at QB. This could be a week where they try to get some work for guys like Chris Conley and Collin Johnson, and there's not enough upside to justify taking a risk.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
Players I Would Play:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Part of me wants to think that the Titans run game will do so much in this game that Tannehill won't have to, but who are we kidding -- in a game with two weak defenses, this has the makings of a shootout, so Tannehill should be in line for some strong production. He had 366 yards and four touchdowns in the first meeting of these teams.
Deshaun Watson (QB, HOU) *
The Titans allow the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so if Watson plays on Sunday, he's a must-start QB1. But Watson suffered an elbow injury in Week 16 and while it sounds like the Texans intend to play Watson if he's healthy, one has to ask: why? They shouldn't, but if they do play him, he'll need to be in your lineup.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
An elite running back whose team has something at stake this week? Fire him up as a high-end RB1.
A.J. Brown, Corey Davis (WR, TEN)
Even with no catches last week, you have to play Davis as a WR3/4 for the boom games, as he's had five games with 100-plus receiving yards. And Brown is dealing with an ankle injury, but if he plays, he's got a great chance to get into the end zone considering he has 10 of them already.
Jonnu Smith (TE, TEN)
I wouldn't feel good about it, but Smith did have a touchdown last week and has 12 targets in the past two games, so there's some decent upside here, even if there's a zero floor.
Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee (WR, HOU)
Bad Titans passing defense coupled with coming off one of his best games of the season? Plug him in everywhere. Coutee isn't playing as well as he had been, but still should be able to reach double-digit PPR points if he plays.
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
Assuming Houston doesn't sit Johnson, he'll be a solid RB2 play and is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season.
Players I Would Not Play:
Chad Hansen (WR, HOU)
Hansen had been trending up, but after a one-catch performance last week, there's no way I trust him in Week 17.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Players I Would Play:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)*
Even against a defense this good, I would play Kyler Murray because of his upside. The problem? He has a leg injury and might not play. If Chris Streveler is under center in this game, you have to find a different fantasy quarterback.
Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds (WR, LAR)
Cooper Kupp is out because of COVID-19, so John Wolford will be throwing to Woods and Reynolds a lot. Both guys have lower ceilings than they would with Jared Goff, but should have decent floors. Woods is a WR2. Reynolds is a WR4.
DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
Really tough matchup, but Hopkins is always a WR1 play and Kirk should get the needed targets to give you WR3/4 value, even if that one-catch performance in the first meeting of these teams is worrisome.
Kenyan Drake (RB, ARI)
Drake had 18 carries last week. All the other Cardinals running backs combined for one carry. Even against this Rams Defense, he has RB2 upside.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
The Cardinals are good against tight ends, but Higbee has five or more targets in three of the last four games. If you need a streamer, he could be your guy.
Dan Arnold (TE, ARI)
10 targets and six catches in the past two games. You could do worse as a TE2 streamer.
Players I Would Not Play:
John Wolford (QB, LAR)
We don't need any data here to tell you that if you play a Week 17 fantasy football championship game, you will not have John Wolford in your lineup. While he posted some good numbers in the AAF, you don't start someone in fantasy in Week 17 who will be taking his first NFL snaps.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Could this be his final NFL game? I almost want to play him for sentimental reasons, but logically I can't justify it against this particular team.
Chase Edmonds (RB, ARI)
Exited last week's game with a hip injury. Even if he plays this week, his role behind Kenyan Drake isn't clear enough for me to play him with a title on the line.
Gerald Everett (TE, LAR)
Bad matchup. If I play a Rams tight end, it'll be Higbee.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Players I Would Play:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
The Bears have been on fire lately, but you're still playing Rodgers as a QB1 against them.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
With so many injuries on this slate, Jones is a top-five RB play.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Let's keep it simple: Adams is the best wide receiver play on Sunday's slate.
Robert Tonyan (RB, TE)
Again, keep it simple: the Packers are playing for the first-round bye and Tonyan is a top-five TE this week because of his touchdown upside.
Mitchell Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Trubisky has started the last five games for the Bears. He's had three total touchdowns in three of those games, but also had a pair of one-score games. There's risk here, though he did throw three TD passes last time he faced the Pack.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Montgomery only had 95 rushing yards last week. Oh no! He's been on fire since the end of November though and is a high-end RB1 play this week.
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Provided he plays due to a hamstring injury, Robinson is a low-end WR1 with upside. He's gotten double-digit targets in three of the past five games.
Jimmy Graham (TE, CHI)
Had two touchdowns last week. He's a fine streamer, though you probably have safer options.
Players I Would Not Play:
There's no one who I'd necessarily avoid in this game.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Players I Would Play:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Sure, why not? I don't expect a full-strength Chiefs Defense, so while Herbert has come back down to earth somewhat, he's still a low-end QB1 play this week.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
I'm a little iffy here because I personally would rest Ekeler if I were the Chargers head coach, but that probably won't be the case. Expect a lot of usage.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
With Keenan Allen on the COVID list, Williams will serve as the primary receiving threat for this team. This is a great week to make sure he's in your DFS lineup. Guys like Tyron Johnson or Jalen Guyton are decent plays too, though are definitely more DFS punts than they are season-long plays.
A Chargers Tight End?
We don't know yet if Hunter Henry will come off the COVID list in time to play. If he does, I'd rate him as a low-end TE1 play. If he doesn't, Donald Parham has some upside as a TE2, though I'd probably not play him if I had a Week 17 fantasy championship game.
Players I Would Not Play:
The Kansas City Chiefs
Chad Henne is the quarterback. We have no idea what the rest of the team will look like but can assume that no one is going to get the requisite snaps to be a solid play, even if guys like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce play. I could be talked into using some guys like Demarcus Robinson or Darrel Williams as DFS punt plays, but that's about it.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Players I Would Play:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Yes, you play Russell Wilson this week. The Seahawks still have a chance at the No. 1 seed, so they'll be going hard.
Chris Carson (RB, SEA)
Rashaad Penny's return has resulted in Penny getting five carries for 15 yards in two games. Chris Carson is still the guy in this backfield and is a high-end RB2 play.
D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Metcalf is an obvious WR1 option, with the potential to finish as the No. 1 overall wideout of the week. As for Lockett, his second half of 2020 has gone poorly, but he's a low-end WR2 with upside on a slate with so many players not available.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
I expect plenty of rushes with Beathard starting at QB. Wilson had 183 yards on 22 carries last week and while that won't happen again, he's an RB2 play.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
He's back! After four catches for 92 yards in his first game since Week 8, we're instantly back in the world where Kittle is a top-five option at his position as long as he suits up.
Players I Would Not Play:
C.J. Beathard (QB, SF)
My wife is from Iowa, so I have a bit of a soft-spot for C.J. Beathard. But he's not someone I'm playing in fantasy. Maybe I can be convinced he's a low, low-end QB2?
Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF)
No Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, but with George Kittle taking targets and lots of rushing attempts forthcoming, I just don't see much room for this passing offense to do much when it comes to the receivers. Bourne might be okay as a cheap DFS play.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
Players I Would Play:
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
I would probably barely play Carr, but he's not the most streaming play, though he did struggle in the last game against the Broncos. He has over 300 yards in each of the last three full games he's played, though!
Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN)
60 or more yards in four consecutive games. No real competition for touches in this backfield. Play Gordon as a high-end RB2.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
It hasn't been a great year for Jacobs, but he'll get double-digit touches and always has a chance to find the end zone. That's enough to make him an RB2 play this week.
Nelson Agholor, Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
I'm still shocked he ended up as the best receiver on this team. Does that say more about Agholor or about Henry Ruggs III? Anyway, Agholor has upside and is a solid WR3 play. Renfrow is a solid WR4 in full PPR, though I might not want to play him in other formats.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Even as this offense struggles, Fant finds a way to produce. 9.7 points or more in full PPR in the last three full games he played, plus 20 targets in the last two weeks. Consider him a TE1 play.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Waller is my TE1 this week because I'm assuming Travis Kelce doesn't play a full game.
Players I Would Not Play:
Drew Lock (QB, DEN)
I'm not putting a fantasy title in the hands of Drew Lock. He might be fine as a bottom-end QB2.
Denver Wide Receivers
Just not enough consistency here for me to trust these guys this week. Jerry Jeudy in DFS, maybe. But aside from that, I'm steering away from this position group.
Sunday Night Football Matchup Analysis
Washington Football Team at Philadelphia Eagles
Players I Would Play:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Have to love a good rushing floor. Washington's defense is good, but Hurts is still a good fantasy option. Low-end QB1 with upside.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
Like Hurts, volume will make Sanders a strong option at his position, even if Washington's front seven might trouble him some.
Logan Thomas (WR, WFT)
Thomas is the one reliable play on this team. His volume makes him a TE1 play.
Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz (TE, PHI)
An ankle injury knocked him out of last week's game, but he's a low-end TE1 if he plays. Not a huge ceiling with Hurts at QB, but a solid floor. If Goedert is out, I'd play Ertz. If Goedert plays, I'd...maybe play Ertz in a deep league, maybe.
Players I Would Not Play:
The Washington Football Team, Minus Logan Thomas and Maybe J.D. McKissic
We'll probably see Taylor Heinicke start at QB, and considering I had to Google how to spell his name right, that's a bad sign. J.D. McKissic is probably a fine running back play, but this team could get down early if the offense can't get going under Heinicke, leading them to abandon the run too much for my liking. Cam Sims isn't even a top-50 play at receiver. Just...not great. I guess the Eagles secondary is bad enough that I could be talked into Sims in DFS, but not season-long. This obviously changes if Terry McLaurin plays but I'm not optimistic that happens.
Eagles Wide Receivers
Jalen Reagor might be an alright play, but I need to see more of Jalen Hurts getting his wideouts involved before I really trust an Eagles receiver. Maybe in 2021 we can get back to playing Eagles receivers?
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