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Welcome to the Super Bowl Sunday edition of the 2020-2021 NFL DFS Cheat Sheet!
For the very last cheat sheet of the NFL season, I will be breaking down the big game with my core plays as a guideline as to how to I will go about building my showdown lineups on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I will be using DVOA ranks from Football Outsiders for the offensive and defensive stats. I'm going to go over each relevant player from both offenses here as well as the kickers and defenses, too, in order to give you the most comprehensive breakdown possible.
Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) vs Kansas City Chiefs (56.5 O/U)
Tampa Bay Offense: 3rd Overall, 5th Passing, 10th Rushing
Kansas City Defense: 22nd Overall, 16th vs. Pass, 31st vs. Run
Fantasy Points Allowed by KC Defense: QB - 6th, RB - 10th, WR - 28th, TE - 5th, K - 20th, DEF - 29th
This Bucs' offense is going to have to put up 30+ points in order to win this game in my opinion and the good news for them is that they're facing a defense that is middling at best. The Chiefs have been one of the worst rushing defenses this year and have allowed teams of varying skill levels to hang around in games because their defense simply can't get enough stops. In fact, the two-touchdown win over Buffalo in the AFC Championship was the first time they covered the spread in over two months (and of course some of those games had some big spreads by NFL standards).
The point is - I don't think the Chiefs are blowing the Bucs out, even though I do think they will win. Either the Bucs come out early and score points in a shootout, or they put up yards and points late trying to play catch up. Either way, this Tampa team is going to score some points and the 56-point total on this game is for good reason.
Tom Brady should have all his weapons and is likely going to need contributions from everyone if the Bucs have a chance. While the matchup should scream "run the ball," I doubt Bruce Arians is going to force-feed either Leonard Fournette or Ronald Jones carries in this game and play conservatively. We saw the Bucs continue to throw the ball (and Brady throw three picks) even while leading the Packers the entire second half - and Arians knows his only chance of winning this game is to be aggressive with his playcalling. The Bucs brought in Brady for one reason - to elevate their skill players and create a high-powered offense that complimented their already solid defense and it worked as they find themselves in the big game after all.
Chris Godwin is my favorite receiver to stack with Brady. He had the highest correlation with Brady this season at .67, as noted in Frank Ammirante's awesome GPP correlations article here. Mike Evans draws a tougher matchup, but has been an elite red-zone target for Brady this season and can get it done on less volume than other receivers. Meanwhile, Antonio Brown's status is still up in the air at the moment, but I expect him to play. How effective he'll be remains to be seen, but we can't entirely rule out a big game from one of the better receivers of the last decade either.
Both the tight ends for Tampa have some appeal and when you see how bad KC has been against the position, they really stand out from a matchup perspective. Cam Brate has been the guy this postseason with more targets and catches than Gronk, but we really can't rule out the "Gronk factor" of him being Brady's buddy and having a ton of Super Bowl experience of his own. Playing both tight ends together could be a really interesting large field strategy that opens up a good bit of cap room, too.
I'm seeing a lot of buzz around Ronald Jones based on his low salary on DraftKings, but I'm not sure how we can trust him based on how ineffective he's been. Lenny Fournette has been red hot and has certainly played his way into the role of lead back. He's a much more reliable option for cash games and single-entry tourneys in my opinion, especially when you consider he has a stranglehold on the passing down role and we expect Tampa to be throwing the ball a bunch.
You can never rule out defenses on DraftKings because defensive touchdowns and special teams TDs happen in the Super Bowl all the time. Having said that, I will probably not play too much of either defense and if I had to pick one, it's actually the Chiefs as they have superior special teams. Tampa kicker Ryan Succop has some appeal on both sites as he's been incredibly efficient in the kicking game all year and kickers usually get overlooked in games with high totals since everyone is trying to cram in the elite position players. Not every drive will end in touchdowns, however, which puts both kickers firmly on my radar.
Core Plays: Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, Ryan Succop
Other Plays (in order of my preference): Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski, Antonio Brown, Ronald Jones
Kansas City Offense: 2nd Overall, 2nd Passing, 13th Rushing
Tampa Bay Defense: 5th Overall, 5th vs. Pass, 1st vs. Run
Fantasy Points Allowed by TB Defense: QB - 8th, RB - 31st, WR - 6th, TE - 9th, K - 21st, DEF - 26th
It's no secret, I like the Chiefs to win this game and I don't see the Bucs stopping their offense. While we shouldn't rely exclusively on their last meeting to predict what happens this time around, it's hard to ignore the fact that Mahomes carved up this secondary for 462 yards and connected with Tyreek Hill for 269 of those yards and three TDs.
This matchup is the perfect storm for fantasy production. It's a pass-funnel defense that is elite stopping the run against a team that only runs the ball when they have to - and even then they still throw it. Mahomes played nearly a perfect game last week in dismantling the Bills Defense and is simply the best QB in the game right now. Not only is he playing at a high level, but he also has some of the best offensive weapons in the game, too, with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill as his top options in the passing game. Kelce has been steamrolling over defenses for the last two months straight and is not coverable. Tyreek Hill is also a matchup nightmare for any corner, let alone the inexperienced Bucs corners who he torched in their first meeting.
I think Mahomes-Kelce is the smart pairing for cash games, while Mahomes-Hill is the option I would go with in GPPs. Or...run all three of them together, gosh darn it. Hill and Kelce do have a .10 positive correlation and it's certainly possible that Mahomes and his top two targets account for a majority of the yardage and all the scores in this game.
It's tough to get too excited about some of the ancillary pieces on Kansas City, but there are some guys we want to consider in large field GPPs. Even though the Bucs allowed the fewest rushing TDs this season (10), we could see one of the KC backs run for a score in this game since we expect them to run a lot of plays inside the red zone. I lean Williams over CEH, but it could be a toss-up as far as which back gets the most touches or a "hot-hand" situation where Reid rides the guy who is having the better game, too.
Mecole Hardman stands out as a big-play receiver who can catch a deep ball for a TD or take a kick back on special teams. Pairing him with the KC defense is a sneaky correlation play for tourneys. And kicker Harrison Butker is one of the best in the business. If we see the Chiefs move the ball all day long but not convert in Tampa territory, he could end up kicking a bunch of field goals and being in the optimal lineup.
Core Plays: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
Other Plays (in order of my preference): Darrel Williams, Harrison Butker, Mecole Hardman, Chiefs D/ST
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Super Bowl
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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