NHL DFS Lineup Picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, SuperDraft (2/14): Value Plays, Goalies, Stacks

4 years ago by Jorge Pucks

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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is back and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft.

If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.

Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings, Fanduel, and SuperDraft for Sunday, February 14th, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!

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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 2/14

- Washington Capitals (-106) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (-114) - 6.5O
- Colorado Avalanche vs. Vegas Golden Knights (-148) - 6.5U

NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix

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Team	Rank GA	Rank SA	Rank GF	Rank SF	Total
Washington	27	8	29	26	17.25
Pittsburgh	28	27	12	22	27.5
Colorado	3	28	25	6	15.75
Vegas	4	30	21	11	16.25

The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.

NHL DFS Power Play Matrix

Matchup	PP%	Opp PK%
Washington	1	29
Pittsburgh	24	11
Colorado	9	9
Vegas	23	2

The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium NHL DFS subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Jorge by using promo code JORGEPUCKS when purchasing an NHL DFS Premium Pass. You get 10% off, and exclusive access to all of our Premium NHL cheat sheets, DFS research tools, Premium Slack Chatrooms, Stack Builder, Correlation Matrix and Lineup Optimizer!

NHL DFS Core Plays

The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).

When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds.

NHL DFS Center Picks

Sidney Crosby, PIT ($5,900 DK / $7,700 FD) - If there is one Penguin player that is worth rostering, especially if he checks in at $5,900 on DK, it should be Sidney Crosby. This is the lowest price point on Crosby that we have seen in years and it would be very tough to pass him up in a solid matchup at home against Washington. Crosby has recorded a point in back-to-back games and has generated three points in just two games against the Capitals so far this season.
William Karlsson, VGK ($4,500 DK / $5,200 FD) - Karlsson is starting to heat up especially since the beginning of February. Karlsson has registered five points in five games since the start of the month and centers a second line that features very steady wings in Reilly Smith and Jonathan Marchessault. Karlsson doesn't take a high volume of shots but he is an effective playmaker that can always explode for several assists in any matchup.

Other centers to consider: MacKinnon, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Stephenson, Glass

NHL DFS Forward Picks

Alex Ovechkin, WSH ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD) - Ovechkin is in peak form over his last four games played as he has notched seven points over that four-game span. He has found the back of the net in three of his last four games and is averaging close to five shots per game during that stretch.
Alex Tuch, VGK ($4,100 DK / $4,400 FD) - The Vegas third line has been one of the better depth lines in the entire league and part of their success is due to the strong start from Alex Tuch. Tuch has 10 points in 12 games this season and has recorded a point in three out of his last four games.

Other wings to consider: Pacioretty, Guentzel, Rust, Marchessault, Vrana, Smith

NHL DFS Defenseman Picks

John Carlson, WSH ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD) - If paying up for a defenseman on this slate, look no further than Carlson. Carlson has notched 11 points in 12 games played this season and is at his lowest price point of the entire season. He skates on the top defensive pairing and top power-play unit and should get several opportunities to find the back of the net while on the power play as the Penguins sport one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league.
Kris Letang, PIT ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD) - This is another Penguin that is priced really down on DK and it would be worth looking at in all formats. Letang is off to a slower start this season as he only has registered five points in 11 games played this year and is still looking for his first goal of the 2021 season. Letang has registered points in back-to-back games which hopefully is a sign that he is heating up on the offensive end.

Other defensemen to consider: Makar, Pietrangelo, Toews, Schultz, Hague, Ceci, Holden

NHL DFS Goalie Picks

Marc-Andre Fleury, VGK ($8,200 DK / $8,800 FD) - Fleury has been incredible in his first seven games of the season for Vegas. He is sporting a 6-1 record and has a 1.58 goals allowed average and a .934 save percentage through his first seven games in the net. Fleury is coming off of a dominant performance against San Jose on Saturday afternoon as he stopped 24 of 2 total shots that he saw in a 3-1 win. Robin Lehner could miss time due to an upper-body injury so Fleury could get the nod in net again on Sunday against the Avs. make sure to check that he is in as Vegas promoted Oscar Dansk to the active roster Saturday afternoon and could see action Sunday should Vegas opt to give Fleury the afternoon off.
Ilya Samsonov, WSH ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD) - Samsonov has been added to the active roster and could get the nod in net against the Penguins come Sunday afternoon. The Penguins have struggled on both ends of the ice this season and are only scoring 2.8 goals per game which ranks 19th overall in the league. Samsonov was in net against Pittsburgh earlier this season and was on the losing end as the Penguins won in overtime but Samsonov could right the ship with a solid performance if he draws the start this afternoon.

Other goalies to consider: Grubauer

Note: If you do roster a goalie listed above, it is sometimes best to make a hedge lineup in tournaments and take the opposing offense against them incase he gives up a few goals while that opposing team carries lower ownership.

Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks

WSH PP
- Ovechkin/ Backstrom/ Carlson (Vrana and Oshie, additional add ons)
  - The Caps are sporting the top power-play unit in the league while the Penguins are one of the worst penalty-killing units in the league. While it could be a tougher matchup for the Caps top line at full strength, they should see several opportunities on the power play which automatically makes them a viable stack on this slate. In addition, by stacking the Capitals power-play unit, you would also be broadening your exposure to Washington by grabbing pieces from their top two forward lines as well.
PIT 1
- Guentzel/ Crosby/ Rust (Letang, d-men add on)
  - If Pittsburgh wants to pull out a win against Washington this afternoon, they will need a big day from their top forward line. This Crosby line is sporting a 64 corsi with a 2.97 expected goals for rate per 60 minutes of ice time. In addition, they're generating 35.22 scoring chances and 16.96 high danger opportunities per 60 and will most likely draw a matchup against the Ovechkin line that has a 2.66 expected goals allowed rate and 23.82 scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes of ice time.