RADIO
2020 was an odd season for all of Major League Baseball but the Miami Marlins’ odyssey stands out as one of the most bizarre. Miami played their first series of the season before a full-blown COVID-19 outbreak postponed their next eight games. They ended up putting 17 players on the injured list and resumed play eight days later with 16 new roster additions.
The Fish went on to finish second in the NL East and make the postseason for the first time since 2003. One of the aforementioned players to be placed on the IL was reliever Yimi Garcia. He made just two appearances in late July and didn’t return until August 30 as he recovered from the virus. He finished the regular season with an impressive 0.60 ERA (1.66 FIP), 0.93 WHIP, and 19:5 K/BB ratio over 15 innings.
Garcia, who signed a modest one-year deal with Miami prior to the 2020 season, has a solid profile. The 30-year-old owns a 3.40 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, and 185:35 K/BB (26.3% K rate and 5.1% BB rate) ratio over 174 2/3 career innings. He’s got a fighting chance to land the Marlins’ closer role coming out of camp but is still flying under the radar in fantasy drafts for a handful of reasons.
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Track Record
First of all, while his 2020 numbers were sterling, the sample size was minuscule. He didn’t even log enough innings to qualify for the Statcast leaderboard on Baseball Savant but 2019 numbers were elite (see below). The tiny sample can make his numbers hard to trust. For instance, he allowed no home runs during the regular season but holds a 12.4% HR/FB rate while allowing 1.6 HR/9 over his career. Finally, the Marlins signed reliever Anthony Bass to a two-year, $7 million deal this offseason. Manager Don Mattingly made some recent comments that indicate Bass could begin the season as the closer.
Garcia put up career numbers across the board in 2020 working primarily as a setup man. He got rid of the long-ball bugaboo that had plagued him in the past by allowing just one home run over his combined 19 1/3 innings (regular and postseason). He surrendered more home runs (15) than walks (14) during the 2019 season with the Dodgers so this was a massive improvement. While home runs have been an issue over his career he had never given up more than eight in any season prior to 2019 so perhaps that number ballooned due to the juiced ball. The move from Dodgers Stadium to Marlins Park certainly helped, too. Marlins Park had a Park Factor of 0.817 in 2020, which made it the fourth-most favorable venue for pitchers.
Pitch Mix
He is primarily a fastball pitcher; he fired his four-seamer on nearly half of his offerings (49.4%) in 2020. He relied on his fastball for good reason as he registered a 36.4% Whiff rate and 20.2% SwSt rate with a .177 xBA and .188 xSLG last year. He also increased his slider usage from 17.7% in 2019 to 29.5% in 2020. Batters put up a .240 xwOBA with an average exit velocity of 78.2 mph off the slider, the lowest of any of Garcia’s four offerings. His curveball was in the 88th percentile in spin rate in 2019 and likely would have been around the same had he qualified for the leaderboard in 2020.
Mixing and matching his fastball with his off-speed stuff kept hitters off balance and led to a career-best 47.2% Ground-ball rate (up from 30.4% in 2019) and 13.9% Fly-ball rate (39.8% in 2019).
The Marlins have a plethora of late-inning options but Garcia stands a great chance to seize the ninth-inning gig. A lot can happen between now and the start of the season so the closer situation in Miami is worth keeping tabs on. Garcia has seemingly fixed the long-ball issue that has troubled him in the past. While there’s bound to be some regression from his 2020 numbers he’s always put up a low WHIP and offers more upside as a closer than Bass, who is a low-strikeout, soft contact pitcher.
Draft Value
A quick look at ADP via NFBC shows that Garcia (410) is being selected ahead of Bass (445) while both players are going well before other Miami relief pitchers such as Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and John Curtiss. Of course, there's a chance Mattingly doesn't name a closer right out of camp and tinkers with the role in the early part of the season but this shouldn't dissuade you from taking a late-round flyer on Garcia. If he initially works as a setup man, which was his role last season, he can still hold a lot of value, especially in NSVH leagues.
Cream rises and Garcia has the stuff to eventually earn the closer role and hold on to it. It may require a little patience but he could reward provide tremendous return on investment at his current ADP.
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