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Baseball season kicks off TOMORROW and I could not be more excited for MLB DFS! For those of you who have been following me during the NBA season, you know I have a passion for playing DFS and for writing. NBA DFS is a ton of fun, but it can be challenging with how much information we wait on every day.
MLB DFS is by far my favorite DFS sport! I truly believe it rewards those who are willing to put in the extra work digging up stats and researching various angles. Baseball is such a stat-head sport that if you love digging into matchups, trends, park factors, etc... then you'll usually be rewarded by being ahead of the field.
In this article, I wanted to give you as much information as possible on how I build lineups for MLB DFS on Draftkings and FanDuel. There are many universal concepts and ideas when it comes to making MLB DFS lineups, but playing on FanDuel and Draftkings can be very different. I am going to try to highlight the differences there as well as the various criteria you should consider when building lineups for cash games (50/50, H2H, double-ups) and tournaments.
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MLB DFS: Strategy Guide
It’s going to sound strange, but the first thing you have to be willing to do in order to win in MLB DFS is to accept that you are going to lose sometimes. Variance gets the best of us on a nightly basis and the unexpected happens more often than we expect. If you're someone who enjoys fading the chalk and going against the grain, then MLB DFS is a great sport for you as there are plenty of nights when that's going to be the right move in tournaments.
Basketball is fairly predictable (foul trouble and injuries aside) and football is a game where we know which players are most likely to get the touches and targets. But baseball is a different breed of cat. Even the best players in the game have no floors in MLB DFS. Gerrit Cole could get lit up and lifted in the third inning. Mike Trout goes 0-4 more often than you might think. It's a matter of picking your spots and hoping for the best because there are fewer high probability outcomes in baseball than in other sports.
There's a number of different ways to approach building MLB DFS lineups and angles to take when doing so. I have been working hard this preseason trying to create some advanced strategy content for you all as well as my new best bud, the data wizard himself, Jon Anderson. Here's some of the content we already have up on RotoBaller
- Picking Pitchers on DraftKings and FanDuel
- Stacking Hitters on Draftkings and FanDuel
- Targeting Pitchers Due for Regression
- Sneaky Stacks vs. Reverse-Splits Pitchers
- Targeting Bad Bullpens
Look for more strategy-focused DFS content coming out during the season, too! Let’s start this piece off by talking a little more about pitching in DFS contests.
Pick Your Pitchers Wisely
Getting your pitchers right on any given slate is probably the most important thing you can do in order to put yourself in contention. Unless there's a triple-dong game or a batter hits for the cycle, pitchers are likely going to be the highest-scoring players on a nightly basis. If you're pitcher sucks, you're often drawing dead unless you have all of your bats just go nuts.
The scoring for pitchers is much different on Draftkings than it is on FanDuel. While we like when our pitcher gets a win, it’s much less important on DK since it’s only worth four points as compared to six points on FanDuel. There’s also no reward for a quality start (six innings pitched with three earned runs or fewer) on DK, while FD gives an extra four points for the QS. That means pitchers can earn up to 10 FD points with a win and a quality start. Targeting pitchers who are sizeable Vegas favorites and who can eat innings is really important in FanDuel’s format.
On DraftKings, I am looking for pitchers who rack up strikeouts without allowing a lot of baserunners. Unlike FanDuel, pitchers are punished for hits and walks allowed (-.6 DK points), but earned runs allowed are only -2 instead of -3 on FD. Strikeouts are worth two points on DK and three points apiece on FD. One simple stat to use for DK pitchers is WHIP, which tells us how many walks and hits a pitcher allows per inning pitched. DK scoring really rewards efficiency and strikeouts so I tend to avoid guys who allow a lot of baserunners and the win is much less important than it is on FD.
FanDuel is a one-pitcher site, so you better get that one pitcher right or you're sunk! In cash games, it makes sense to pay up for a high-priced elite starter, while in GPPs you can target pitchers from all salary tiers to try to find the best point-per-dollar option.
Meanwhile, DK is a two-pitcher site, so it adds an extra wrinkle and challenge when building rosters. There are several different ways to approach how much salary cap you want to spend on pitchers. You can try to pay up for two studs but that forces you into using all value bats. You can also try to pay down for two cheap pitchers and then load up on bats, but you're lowering your floor substantially which is not optimal for cash games. The best formula on most nights is to play one stud and one value pitcher and leave enough cap to be able to afford some good hitters to complement your pitching.
Stacking Hitters: Correlation is Key
One question I get from MLB DFS players often is “do I need to stack batters from the same team in cash and/or GPPs.” In tournaments, the answer is "absolutely." Small stacks, big stacks, any kinds of stacks but your lineup should be highly correlated to capture the most fantasy points possible from that team's offensive output.
Stacking up consecutive hitters (or sometimes non-consecutive hitters) from the same lineup is usually a strategy that is reserved for GPPs but that doesn’t mean you can’t do it in cash, too. On smaller slates, it's probably more viable than larger slates, but there are no hard and fast rules against stacking in cash games. The argument against it is that it lowers your floor by relying too much on one team, which is a valid point, but I still don't mind having 2-3 hitters from the same team in my cash game lineup if the matchup merits it. I also think you can create hybrid lineups in MLB DFS that have some correlated plays in order to create a higher ceiling and some chalkier plays as well to make sure that you're matching the field and not getting too cute.
When you are building your stacks, please consider that stacking 1-4 from a popular offense is likely going to be a very chalky stack. One of my favorite things to do to be contrarian is to stack the bottom of the order or to do a “wraparound stack” and play the 8 or 9-hole hitter with the top of the lineup. I covered this in my sneaky stack article, but there's no reason you have to stack all lefties against an RHP or all righties against a lefty either. Plenty of hitters and pitchers both have reverse-split tendencies that we can exploit and remember that your hitters are going to be getting some at-bats against the bullpen (and likely pitchers who throw with the opposite arm) on a nightly basis.
And stacking doesn’t have to be consecutive batters, either. If you don't like a player's matchup or he's mired in a slump, skip him! A non-consecutive stack is more likely to be unique than 3-4 consecutive hitters anyway.
FanDuel vs. DraftKings
There are a number of differences in how FanDuel and DraftKings set up their MLB DFS contests. I know some people like to play one site better than the other, but I can't help but play both sites every day. There are some unique aspects to lineup construction on each site that we have to consider on a daily basis.
- We already talked about pitchers, but you have to pick two on DK (on some slates that's rough, just wait until the rotations thin out) while you only pick one on FD.
- DraftKings makes you play a catcher, FanDuel does not. You can play catchers on FD in the C/1B slot or in the utility slot and they are usually lower-owned plays on FD.
- Speaking of the utility slot, FanDuel added this a few years back and it makes fitting your favorite stacks a lot easier since you can double up on any infield position or play a fourth outfielder. For cash games, I would recommend you grab another first basemen or third basemen, or another outfielder.
- DraftKings used to be the only site with multi-position eligibility, but guess what? Now FanDuel does, too! This is getting some mixed reviews so far from players but if you wanted FanDuel builds to become easier or a little more like DK builds, you got your wish.
- Like pitchers, hitters are also scored differently on each site. FanDuel scores are usually higher on a nightly basis since they award more points for walks (3 vs. 2), doubles (6 vs. 5), home runs (12 vs. 10), RBI (3.5 vs. 2), runs (3.2 vs. 2), and stolen bases (6 vs. 5).
If you're playing on both sites each night, it's important to check the pricing differences on players on a daily basis as there are major discrepancies on almost every single slate. Pricing always matters and some players or stacks are going to be easier to fit on each site at times.
Cash Games vs. GPPs
I play a lot more GPPs than cash, but I think there's a lot of value in playing cash games for bankroll building and some people simply have more risk tolerance than others.
In cash games, the first thing you want to do is find the safest pitchers to start your build. We’re looking for an ace with a good matchup against a middling or bad offense. What's the park factor? Is he a large Vegas favorite? The general formula here is to lock in a stud pitcher who we think will go deep into the game and rack up some strikeouts and I’m willing to spend up for the most expensive on the slate if it's warranted.
Every slate is different, but as we discussed earlier, paying down into the mid-tier or value tier for your SP2 on DraftKings is likely the best option. Going with two expensive pitchers can work, but you really need to nail those value bats. Going with two cheap pitchers is not likely to be the right move unless you absolutely have to have big bats (think unfadeable Coors game).
As we talked about in the stacking section, you do not have to stack hitters in cash games. If you absolutely love a particular team that you can go ahead and do it, but personally I like to look for some really strong individual matchups and try to locate hitters with some solid platoon splits against the handedness of the opposing pitcher. If a hitter is hot, that’s a bonus, too, but you shouldn't fall victim to game log watching or rely on only hot hitters. Are they playing in a hitting-friendly environment? You see where I am going with this – there are a number of criteria you can apply to each hitter and I’m pretty picky when trying to nail down my top cash game hitters are going to be.
ISO and wOBA have long been the standard stats to consider for hitters, but you can definitely dig in further as there are a ton of hitting stats to consider. Should you consider BvP (batter vs. pitcher) statistics? Probably not, as they are not usually predictive, but it never hurts to at least look and see which hitters have fared well against the opposing starter over their career. The larger the sample size, the better but in most cases, the number of at-bats just really isn't going to be large enough to draw any really solid conclusions.
I’m always looking for correlation in GPPs. So, I love stacking hitters most of the time and then trying to headhunt home runs with one-off plays. That’s really the formula that has worked the best for me over the years and I would recommend it in GPP formats.
You simply can’t be afraid of fading the chalk or leveraging the chalk on any given night. If you think a chalky pitcher is in a bad spot – stack against him. You’ll gain leverage on a big chunk of the field. Don’t ever be afraid to be different and take the players you really like, regardless of who others are telling you to play.
Conclusion
Remember, baseball is a game with a ton of variance on a nightly basis. There will be nights when the chalky hitters and pitchers perform well and other nights when the chalk crashes and burns while players that hardly anyone rostered have huge games. You have to be willing to embrace this variance and understand that there are going to be good nights and bad nights. The goal, of course, is come up with a process to identify the best low-risk and high-risk plays on a nightly basis so more of those nights are good than bad.
Like with other DFS sports, I would recommend practicing responsible bankroll management. Contest selection is also an important thing to consider. The general rule of thumb in the industry is to allocate 80% of your nightly bankroll in cash games and around 20% in GPPs. That's not everyone's style but not a bad place to start. And as far as contests go, I always tend to favor single entry tournaments and smaller field tournaments over the larger big money tournaments.
If you love statistics then MLB DFS is going to be a lot of fun. There are so many different stats to consider on a daily basis. For a stats nerd like me, MLB DFS is a ton of fun and I love nothing more than to do some deep dives into a site like FanGraphs in order to try find an edge for that slate. Good luck this season and make sure to use RotoBaller for all your MLB DFS needs this year!
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