2021 Keeper Value Rankings - Second Base

Many many years ago, I noticed the managers in my long-time keeper league were consistently making terrible keeper decisions year after year. Instead of taking their money every year thought I would help them out and find a good set of Keeper League Rankings to share with them. What I found was quite disturbing.

There appeared to be two types of Keeper Rankings available in the industry: Type A is just the site's normal rankings with younger players boosted. These types of rankings only benefit leagues where all Keepers carry the same cost or no cost, such as Rounds 1-4 for everyone's keepers. I also found a Type B that I have no explanation on how any human could ever perceive to be useful in any type of fantasy format. So instead of pulling a rankings list for them, I sat down on Excel for a good month and the Keeper Value Formula was born.

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants." The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

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JB's Keeper Value System

The final product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2020 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2021). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this value-based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a keeper league.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12-team league data, 2020 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

TIER	SCORE	DESCRIPTION
1	>100	Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2	75-99	Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3	50-74	You are gaining good value with these players. The majority of good keeper options tend to fall into this category.
4	25-49	Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5	0-24	Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value. The idea is if you don't use a keeper selection here you can likely still draft that player in the vicinity of their 2020 cost.
6	<0	The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

 

2021 Second Base Keeper Value Rankings

POS Rank	Keeper Tier	Player		Cost ('20 ADP)	Keeper Score
1	2	Brandon Lowe	TBR	17	79.25
2	3	Cavan Biggio	TOR	12	63.34
3	3	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	5	54.21
4	3	Dylan Moore	SEA	23	51.29
5	4	Nick Solak	TEX	23	43.32
6	4	Whit Merrifield	KCR	4	29.19
7	4	Nick Madrigal	CWS	23	26.79
8	5	Jake Cronenworth	SDP	23	24.34
9	5	Jurickson Profar	SDP	23	7.62
10	5	Jean Segura	PHI	16	6.40
11	5	Keston Hiura	MIL	5	6.21
12	5	Andres Gimenez	CLE	23	5.94

 

Tier Two

Just like the first basemen group, no Tier One scores for second basemen this season, so we begin with numero dos.

If you prefer safety over flashy, Brandon Lowe is your man. Lowe took some great steps at the plate in 2020 and it will be exciting getting to watch it play out over a full season. While shining in Barrel% and some expected statistics like xSLG and xwOBA, it's the old-school stats that lure me in. For starters, his .285 ISO easily led second basemen, and his BB/K doubled from 2019. The most satisfying improvement was against left-handed pitchers though. After suffering through a .674 OPS and 52.9 K%(!) against lefties in 2019, Lowe boasted a 1.137 OPS and 23.3 K% vs southpaws in just eight fewer PA in 2020. He lacks double-digit SB and the zesty "untapped potential" of a Biggio or Hiura, but he is by far the most-polished hitter of the trio at this point in their young careers. The four-category buoyancy at a generally thin position tied to a late keeper cost is why Lowe sits alone at the top of the keystone position.

 

Tier Three

Cavan Biggio seems to be slowly dropping down draft boards as more people peep his BaseballSavant page. I certainly wouldn't classify him as a fade, and I gladly have plenty of best-ball points shares due to the moderate speed and sexy OBP at a thin position, but I'd be hard-pressed to find a reason to pull the trigger in 5x5 Roto. The good news is the Blue Jays lineup will score plenty of runs this season after adding George Springer and Marcus Semien to an already dangerous group, and as previously mentioned Biggio can get on base and run. The bad news is he will likely never hit for average, and the power looks average at best. Still just 25 years old, in a loaded lineup, and with double-digit SB speed, Biggio is still a great keeper selection.

There was a lot of hesitation with DJ LeMahieu early this draft season due to the possibility of him not calling Yankee Stadium home. But fear not, because he is returning to the Bronx for the next six seasons. The 2020 batting champ returning near the top of the Bombers' lineup smacking oppo line-drives into the short porch in right field lines up another outstanding fantasy season for DJL. I love being able to slot him in at the keystone since you typically prefer more pop from your first or third baseman, and you won't find a better batting average anchor.

If you want a very late keeper selection with a tasty speed and pop combo, look no further than Dylan Moore, who now owns 23 SB across 441 MLB PA after a breakout 2020. He hit eight HR and stole 12 bases in just 159 PA last year, while raising his BA almost 50 points despite just a 24 point BABIP increase. Considering his speed and EV/Hard Hit% that both ranked in the top 23% of the league we should expect the BA to reside closer to the .255 mark than the .209 he hit in 2019. ATC projects 18 HR, 22 SB, and a .237 BA, which combined with OF eligibility makes for an excellent speed-boost keeper selection... if BA hedges are in place of course.

 

Tier Four

Nick Solak turned our heads in his small 2019 taste of MLB when he hit .293 with five homers and two steals in 135 PA. He didn't exactly carry that over to 2020 but he still proved he can hit for a decent average while really showing us what he can do on the base paths. His seven SB was tied for 20th best in the league, while his sprint speed ranked in the top 10%. I think ATC has the most accurate projections on Solak for 2021, projecting 16 HR, 12 SB, and a .266 BA. If he can work his way up to the top third of the Rangers lineup (RosterResource has him fifth with Isiah Kiner-Falefa hitting second currently) I see the potential steals to be fairly higher.

It would be hard for me to come up with many players that I have more confidence in than Whit Merrifield. Many fantasy managers passed on him in 2020 drafts due to a drastic decrease in SB from 2018 to 2019, but the 32-year-old went out and stole 12 bases in just 60 games. The .282 BA was certainly fine but was tied to a BABIP that was more than 50 points lower than the previous two seasons. I fully expect that to bounce back in a big way considering the sprint speed, career-low K%, and the second-highest percentage of hits up the middle in the league paired with a healthy line drive rate. ATC projects 16 HR and 26 SB with a .285 BA for Merrifield in 2021. I think the BA is a bit low, but will gladly take that baseline to go along with outfield eligibility and the addition of Carlos Slamtana to the Royals lineup. If you can keep him for later than a fourth it's almost an automatic decision. 

As it seems to be the trend for the last three players on this list, we want speed from our second basemen! Nick Madrigal is far from an all-around fantasy contributor, but he has been blessed with elite offensive teams and an elite pair of legs. Madrigal hit .340 in a little over 100 PA in 2020, and stole 35 bases across three minor league levels in 2019. The power is non-existent but .300 with 20 SB is exactly the kind of boost you are looking for with a late keeper selection.

 

Tier Five

Jake Cronenworth enjoyed one hell of a first taste of the big leagues in 2020. The 27-year-old rookie only hit four HR and stole three bases, but he hit .285 and the underlying numbers look fantastic. He will absolutely hit for a higher average than whatever projection system you prefer is showing right now. He possesses a healthy line drive profile with a hit-direction spread similar to Trevor Story and Paul Goldschmidt. I am not worried about where he hits in the lineup because the Padres are loaded and hitting behind Tommy Pham and Wil Myers still provides plenty of RBI possibilities.

I am however slightly worried about playing time considering the Padres now have Ha-Seong Kim along with Jurickson Profar on the roster. The total PA for 2021 most likely start with a 4 instead of a 5 or 6 which is why Cronenworth's keeper score resides in tier five. In daily roster move leagues I'd be happy plugging him into one of his three eligible positions when starting, but trying to guess how many games he will play each week will be a mental strain.

If you are like me and like filling MI and CI with the safest and closest to all-around production you can find, Jean Segura is a perennial option. It feels like he has been in the league forever, but Segura is still "just" 30 years old. In his first season with the Phillies in 2019, he hit 12 HR, stole 10 bases, and hit .280. In 2020 he appeared to sell out for a little extra pop and hit seven bombs, stole two bases and hit .266 in 54 games. Despite the decreasing SB totals over the years, his sprint speed is still top 15% in the league and he did draw walks at a career-high rate last year. Hitting near the bottom of the lineup he won't win you any categories, but you know double-digit HR and SB are coming with a healthy BA.

After two solid sources of BA, it's only fair we ride the pendulum's swing to Keston Hiura. After an amazing rookie sample in 2019 where he hit 19 HR, swiped nine bases, and hit .303 across 84 games the encore performance in 2020 fell flat. We expected the .402 BABIP to come down, but it REALLY came down. His .210 xBA was bottom 10 percent in the league and the strikeout rate climbed to a depressing 34.6%. Still just 24 years old and still somehow possessing an impressive barrel rate, there is hope he can turn it around and live out that valuable 30/15 potential. If he is able to improve against the fastball this season (.224 BA, 41.5 Whiff% in 2020), even a fifth-round keeper cost could prove to be a value hitting cleanup for the Brew Crew.

I think my colleagues at RotoBaller are currently too low on Andres Gimenez, and honestly, I view him as a much higher keeper option with what should be unanimous late-round costs across keeper leagues. There is a valid concern that he might not start the season with the Indians, then there's that delayed minor league start. Lastly, there is also teammate-for-life Amed Rosario who also came over from the Mets. So I will agree the PA will not be where we want in 2021, but as a late-round keeper selection, the upside is too much for me to pass on. Last season he hit three homers and stole eight bases while hitting .263. So basically Nick Solak numbers, but he did it in 100 less PA. His sprint speed was top 6% in the league, and ATC projects 21 SB over 421 PA in 2021. I always LOVE left-handed hitters in Progressive Park, the speed is legit, and he is just 22 years old - how could you not like Gimenez as a keeper selection this year?

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