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After nearly two years without March Madness, the NCAA Tournament has returned! That means it's time to complete your brackets and we're here to help. RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today we'll be taking a look at the South Region.
We'll run through the highly seeded teams in this region, some sleepers, busts to watch out for, and who I like to represent this region in the Final Four.
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your brackets.
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South Region Top Four Seeds
Top four seeds: No. 1 Baylor, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Arkansas, No. 4 Purdue
Halfway through this season, Baylor was playing at historically great levels and looked to be on a beeline to the Final Four. In recent weeks, that hasn't been the case anymore. The Bears picked up two losses down the stretch and have not been playing the same quality defense expected after the first two months of the season. Baylor has allowed four of its last six opponents to top 1.1 points per possession, a concerning trend. Offensively, the Bears are so potent when 3-point shots are falling. That is nearly always the case: Baylor led the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. On a night where the Bears collectively go cold, like they did recently against Oklahoma State, Baylor's offense crashes back to reality.
Ohio State had overperformed this season before a tough stretch to end things. The Buckeyes lost their last four regular season games before an inspiring Big Ten Tournament performance. Every player who steps on the floor for Ohio State can score if the defense skews away from him, but there's worries about the Buckeye defense. Ohio State ranked 336th in the nation in forcing turnovers.
If you've paid casual attention to college basketball during the regular season, the Razorbacks could be the best team you haven't seen yet. Arkansas is led by future lottery pick Moses Moody, who is a shooting guard in the body of a tight end. Few teams have found the right match-up for Moody. The Hogs push the ball in transition and dare you to keep up.
Purdue is an intriguing team but is likely a year early for their big moment in the spotlight. Every member of the Boilermaker rotation returns next year with a chance to compete for the Big Ten crown. This year, I worry that freshman Jaden Ivey isn't ready for the starring role. That leaves Trevion Williams as the offensive option in crunch time. He's a super smart, physical big man but his plodding back-to-the-basket style might be countered by teams with the size to handle him.
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup
No. 7 Florida vs No. 10 Virginia Tech
The Hokies pulled a great draw in the tournament considering their seed. Mike Young has a good team in his second season in Blacksburg, with wins over Villanova, Clemson, Duke, and Virginia already this season. He should have his offense dialed up to face a Florida defense that has a tendency to play recklessly and make mistakes. Since his days at Wofford, Young has embraced the 3-point revolution in basketball, making his teams high variance and dangerous to meet in March. The Hokies are flat out better than Florida and should take care of business.
Bust of the Region
I'm not breaking new ground here, but Villanova is in real trouble. A late season injury to Collin Gillespie sent the Wildcats' season into a tailspin. Villanova lost both games it played without Gillespie and looked fully out of sorts offensively. Chris Arcidiacono, younger brother of Villanova legend Ryan, was promoted from little used reserve to a vital member of the lineup. If he and the other Villanova guards can't handle their increased workload, Winthrop has the athletes and the defensive intensity to send Nova home quickly.
Final Four Pick
Even a month ago, I wouldn't have believed Baylor wasn't a shoo-in for the Final Four. The Baylor team that has played since the Bears returned from COVID pause just doesn't have the same pop as they did prior to that 3- week layoff. So much of Baylor's value comes from long range jump shooting. In the single elimination pressure of March Madness, that's a scary basket in which to lay your eggs. I think the Bears have a cold shooting night along the way and favor Arkansas as the team to take advantage. In this crazy season and tournament setup, Eric Musselman is betting his athletes can win a track meet style game against lesser prepared teams. It's a recipe for success that I think carries the Hogs to the promised land.
