RADIO
Happy Opening Week, RotoBallers! I'm sure I can speak for all of you when I say that I'm thrilled to have a full season of baseball on tap to grind through this spring, summer, and fall. What a refreshing feeling!
If you missed my intro article on Tuesday, my name is Tommy Bell (@BellRoto on Twitter), and I'll be publishing a daily article with premium MLB betting analysis and plays every day of the baseball season, barring some days off.
I'll be posting my plays by 10 am each day, and I'll update and add any plays as needed on Twitter @BellRoto. I'll also keep a running tab there and banter with my followers whenever possible, so come join the fun (and I recommend turning on alerts)!
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MLB Opening Week Intro
Before we continue our plays to start the first week of the season, keep in mind that the first couple of weeks of the MLB grind are very much a time of learning and adjustment to the trends and analysis we used from last season. A lot of what I lean on in the first handful of plays is how my gut says a team will look, what I know hasn't changed much from last season, and how the market seems to be treating a team. Then, as we begin to get a larger sample size of statistics and performances from 2021, we can factor those things in more and more. PLEASE always bet responsibly, especially early in the season, and NEVER wager more than you're comfortable losing.
If you EVER have any questions on a specific game or just my process in general, don't hesitate to reach on Twitter @BellRoto. Getting to throw different stances, angles, and opinions back and forth with followers and fellow sports bettors is by far my favorite aspect of incorporating Twitter into this series. Let's play ball!!
As a reminder, this series will be free access for all readers for the first three days of the season. Starting Sunday, only Premium Betting subscribers will get access to Bell's Best Bets. To sign up, follow the link here, and be sure to use the promo code BELL for 10% off. Reach out on Twitter with any questions or concerns!
Recap for 4/2/2021
As you can tell by my emojis and vivid depiction of the 9th inning in the Tweets above, I spent a good chunk of my night last night tilting the Marlins, particularly their "closer(?)" Anthony Bass. That was a rough one! Instead of sitting at 4-1 and +2.45 units including a nice little parlay hit, we are once again left feeling a bit empty with a 2-3 and -0.4 unit night.
Even still, my process feels good! There were plenty of hard hit balls in the Boston and Baltimore game on Friday afternoon. We came nowhere near the total, so obviously it was a bad play, but that's what will happen when you bet the over on a baseball game and one of the teams collects two hits all day: 1 from the leadoff hitter and 1 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. The Giants, White Sox, Dodgers, and Padres all took care of business as expected. I'm very glad I talked myself on to a full unit for Johnny Cueto and San Fran. Even the Marlins bats finally woke up, and while Ryan Yarbrough pitched very well, my expectation for Pablo Lopez seemed spot on!
While the numbers may not reflect it yet, I'm feeling pretty good about the way I'm seeing the board early. Let's see what stands out to me for Saturday in the LAST free access version of this article before we begin to reward the dedicated RotoBaller Premium members. You may notice I start shortening things a bit and get more concise with my analysis. That's the direction this article will start to trend as the season rolls on. Less chatter, more plays and analysis. Work smarter, not harder!! 🙂
YTD: 3-5 record and -1.6 units
MLB Plays for 4/3/2021
*I was really grinding this morning trying to find a solid afternoon play for us to jump on, since there are so many awesome matchups to enjoy on this beautiful, baseball-filled Saturday, but nothing has stood out enough to call a "Best Bet" so far. So, please follow me @BellRoto on Twitter and turn on your alerts for that account, because I'm aiming to get one more play out to you all by 12:00 pm EST if I can find an edge that's worth it. I won't force anything that's not there, but I want to get these plays out to you now, and I'll add via Twitter if an opportunity presents itself!*
Milwaukee Brewers (-125) vs. Minnesota Twins
Risking 1.25 units
Two very good offensive teams, but I give the edge to the Brewers. They were bailed out in the ninth on Thursday despite a quiet game from the bats, but this team will be raking in no time, mark my words. The Twins have plenty of pop themselves, but advantage to the Brewers bats in terms of depth and star power. Also remember that Josh Donaldson left the game Thursday after pulling up lame, and it's being called a tight hamstring. I wouldn't be surprised to see him take another day off here.
As for pitching, I usually try to find ways to back Jose Berrios, but he just seems outmatched in every way in this one. Corbin Burnes has been an absolute nightmare for opposing hitters since his emergence over the past two years. He's efficient, he racks up Ks, and he had a GREAT Spring Training. Between the advantage on offense and the bonafide stud pitcher on the mound after the big momentum-building, comeback win on Thursday, I found it easy to lay this price with Milwaukee.
San Diego Padres -1.5 (-105) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Risking 1.05 units
Let's keep this one simple: Caleb Smith is no match for the little white slip that manager Jayce Tingler will bring to the home plate ump in San Diego on Saturday evening. Smith has fallen off tremendously since his time as a potential breakout candidate in Miami, and he had a rough Spring Training that seemed to do more harm than good. A hard contact prone southpaw against the likes of Tommy Pham, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Wil Myers... all before we reach the 6th spot in the order. Good grief.
Here's a little side note in case that wasn't enough: Joe Musgrove is a really, really solid pitcher in every aspect. He creates soft contact, he can get a strikeout when needed, and he fields his position as well as any pitcher out there. This is his pitching debut in his home city of San Diego, and as someone who has followed Big Joe closely since his trade to the Pirates, I'm positive that Musgrove wants to pitch absolutely lights out in this spot. Oh yeah, and the Diamondbacks lineup stinks.
San Francisco Giants (-120) at Seattle Mariners
Risking 1.2 units
I made my stance known in yesterday's article regarding these two lineups without Kyle Lewis, and that shouldn't change much from Friday to Saturday.
After seeing a very strong performance from the Giants bullpen last night, I'm willing to go back to the well with another full unit. The main reason is this starting pitching matchup. Right-hander Logan Webb seemed to really figure something out this off-season, as he looked dynamic in Spring Training. There were flashes of a strong pitcher in the making for Webb in 2020, but nothing like a 22/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings of one-run ball. It could be nothing, but I like this team enough to give it a look for his 2021 debut.
Meanwhile, I don't see much promise at all with Chris Flexen. This would be quite the reclamation project for Seattle if they can get the 26-year-old to be a stable back-end rotation guy, but nothing he's done in his career thus far, or Spring Training a few weeks ago for that matter, has suggested that he can miss bats enough to make up for all the hard contact he allows. One "no-name" pitcher made strides this Spring, one continued to get shelled. I think I'll lean to the Giants again on Saturday night.
Remember to follow me on Twitter @BellRoto to get instant alerts on any added plays. Looking to add one more for the afternoon slate before 12:00 pm EST. Have an AWESOME Saturday! Play ball!!
Reminders:
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