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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, April 7th, 2021 at 7:30 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/7
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- Montreal Canadiens vs, Toronto Maple Leafs
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues
- Colorado Avalanche vs. Minnesota Wild
- Arizona Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings
Please note that the Edmonton-Ottawa game starts at 5:00 pm EDT and is not on the main slate this evening.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a four-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the eight goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one stay away from the North Division goalies? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach and most will look to whoever starts in Vegas or Philipp Grubauer for better or worse.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Arizona Coyotes vs. Los Angeles Kings. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can Los Angeles climb back onto the playoff bubble?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The Arizona Coyotes and the Los Angeles Kings may be the biggest wildcard yet the Montreal Canadiens and Toronto Maple Leafs have the numbers on their side. Which players does one choose?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also more likely to do game stacks in some form or another.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these four matchups have that kind of appeal on Wednesday night.
Finally, this main slate is again not your typical Wednesday slate during the pandemic but a Wednesday slate more are normally used to.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($8,600 DK / $9,100 FD) - MacKinnon is our top pick because of the matchup against Minensota. He has another point streak going and has hit the DraftKings shot bonus five times in the last 12 contests. The center tallied another goal and assist versus Minnesota on Monday night as the Wild defense have few answers for that Colorado top line. MacKinnon had just three scoring chances -- one ended up in the net directly from him and one was an assist. It does not take much considering the center has two goals and ten assists in six meetings this season versus Minnesota. The scary part is that MacKinnon has not had that 5+ shot game yet versus Minnesota. Stacking options are plausible here.
- Eric Staal, MTL ($3,500 DK / $3,900 FD) - We are going way down here as Staal provides a bit of value on Wednesday night against a Toronto team that played a wild one in Calgary on Monday night. Staal is in the top-six and may see a bit of power-play time again. He scored the game-winner on Monday which was a definite boost in confidence. The only concern is going to be shot volume but Toronto has allowed 30+ shots in five of these last six matchups. There should be some opportunities for Staal. It will boil down to execution.
This is again a small slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Arizona and Los Angeles. Looking to the Montreal power play is a contrarian risk but plausible. Auston Matthews expects to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate on Wednesday along with MacKinnon. One, could also slide in with Jason Spezza again. He has a tendency to thrive against Montreal. Finally, expect the unexpected.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kevin Fiala, MIN ($5,200 DK / $5,100 FD) - Taking a flier on Fiala is not a bad idea given the shot volume of late (4+ shots in four of the last five games). He is also on a nice point streak of six games. There are some other good candidates like Conor Garland but his price is a bit higher. Unlike the previous three meetings with. Colorado, Fiala was not intimidated by Colorado's presence nearly as much. He was able to generate six shots and four scoring chances. Naturally, he scored a goal and was one of Minnesota's few consistent threats on Monday night. Colorado is particularly vulnerable to teams with wingers who carry speed and a good burst of acceleration.
- Max Pacioretty, VGK ($7,900 DK/ $7,600 FD) - Max Pacioretty gets the nod here because of how inconsistent St. Louis still is. The Blues have just three wins in their last dozen games and only one in regulation. That is rather sobering. Their penalty kill is among the worst in the league and their offensive expected goals for ranks in the bottom-five along with their actual goals. Their pushback has been almost nonexistent. Vegas has cooled off some as well. However, they are in a much better position. Even in the 6-1 rout on Monday, Pacioretty had just two shots and two scoring chances. He has just four shots on goal in his last three games after 23 in the previous six.
Michael Bunting will make a good one-off play against Los Angeles with four goals in as many games. Bunting has a shoot first mentality much like some of his Arizona teammates. Arizona could be that Buffalo like team tonight (Buffalo scored five goals in New Jersey). Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Cale Makar, COL ($5,700 DK / $5,600 FD) - So, Makar keeps on rolling with three goals and 11 points in his last ten games while averaging 2.7 shots on goal. He is up to a blocked shot a game as well. Makar makes a dynamic Colorado Avalanche offense downright frightening. Makar has two goals and five assists on 23 shots against Minnesota in seven meetings. He provides consistent DFS points against a Wild team that has a less than agile defense at times. With Colorado being on a ridiculous run currently (winners of five straight) and 9-4-2 on the road, Makar is one of several options from the blueline -- see Devon Toews or Samuel Girard if one needs to come down a tier in salary.
- Alex Goligoski, ARZ ($3,700 DK / $3,700 FD) - Let's keep this simple. Jakob Chychrun ($4,600 on FanDuel) is on an excellent run and Goligoski has been a huge benefactor. The best part is while Chychrun's salary keeps skyrocketing, Goligoski's price has remained stagnant. The defender has around two shots and two blocked shots a game which is a good floor at his salary. Again, it is more than the +10 his past ten games, Goligoski is playing well and increasing his trade value if Arizona goes that route. For DFS players, he has been a godsend like Alec Martinez has been all season. Martinez, by the way, is still just $4.400 on FanDuel tonight for Vegas.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Jake Muzzin and Sean Walker carry some intrigue from the value tier.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Los Angeles (Cal Petersen may be worth a look), etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. If Marc-Andre Fleury starts, he will be the highest-owned starter tonight. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:30 pm EDT lock.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- TOR 1
- Marner/ Matthews/ Hyman? (do consider Spezza as a separate tag-along on special teams).
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty/ Stone/ Martinez from the D? (center add on)
- COL 1
- Rantanen / MacKinnon / Landeskog? (Makar or Toews, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: MIN 1, COL 3, LAK1, MTL 2, ARZ 1, STL 1 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially with Los Angeles and St. Louis).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
