RADIO
Diving head-first into relievers who have converted saves early in the season is typically fine but whatever is going on this season is very, very odd.
If my math is correct, there are now 35 different relievers who have at least 1 save so far this year. After one week of games. Crazy.
— Greg Ambrosius (@GregAmbrosius) April 8, 2021
Saves come in all shapes and forms. Teams are wisening up with how they utilize their best relievers/closers and not limiting them to save opportunities. Rather, putting them in high-leverage spots in tie games or with leads in the seventh or eighth inning when the bases are full or a lineup is very tough.
This, in turn, is making it very difficult to peg which relievers are "closers" and which are just lucking into save opportunities.
"Closers" to Ignore
Amir Garrett - Cincinnati Reds
Amir Garrett is very skilled but given that he's been with the Reds for some odd years now and has not been asked to close games much, if at all, is a big red flag. This season, with Raisel Iglesias gone, there is an open audition for Reds' relievers to ascertain that closer role or at least a large chunk of it. Garrett is a veteran of this bullpen who has set up for years but only has two career saves, one of which came this season. He has a history of command trouble despite possessing top-tier pitches and top prospect pedigree as a former starter. 2020 was his best season yet and while he may build on that this year, the pressures of closing may be too much for him and early struggles could lead to the Reds looking elsewhere.
Sean Doolittle's presence and increased velocity are major threats to that closer role, especially given his 111 career saves. The Reds might be ok with Garrett learning through bumps if they were losing in general but with him not being named to the role definitively and them winning games early on, it's less likely.
Target: Lucas Sims or Sean Doolittle
Gregory Soto - Detroit Tigers
Soto was very good in 2020 despite a 4.30 ERA. This was his first season as a fully converted reliever and it displayed enough promise to potentially consider him as the Tigers' closer of the future. However, his start to 2021 has been much less appealing. Although we are only through 4 innings with increased velocity on his pitches, Soto's strikeouts are down and he's given up half as many home runs (1) as he did all of last season (2).
Not to say this is the biggest deal given how random home runs can be but one of Soto's appealing aspects is his ability to limit the long ball. This was an issue as a rookie in 2019 and if it peeps its head back up, could prevent him from holding onto the job. Also, the bias against left-handers as closers is working against him too. Bryan Garcia on the other hand has had a fine start to the season with an increase in strikeouts early on but is not very good either.
Target: no one
Closers to Target
Ian Kennedy - Texas Rangers - 50% rostered
Ian Kennedy is 'ol reliable. The Rangers are not in a position to move away from Kennedy given that Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Hernandez are out for the season. Their best bet is to build up Kennedy's trade value with as many save opportunities as possible.
Kennedy amassed 30 saves in 2019 and flailed in the short 2020 season but that looks like an afterthought now. He's converted 2 saves and has 6K in 4IP. His velocity is back to 2019 levels and he has eliminated the cutter, instead opting for a four-seam heavy approach.
He's the guy and should remain so until Texas trades him at the deadline for parts.
Emmanuel Clase - Cleveland Indians - 45% rostered
Emmanuel Clase has usurped James Karinchak as the closer in Cleveland. While there was speculation that a trusted veteran with solid career numbers like Nick Wittgren could take on the role, Clase has been too good to ignore. Yes, he blew the most recent game but that was due to an error rather than an egregious outing. He only has two pitches (four-seam FB and slider) but pumps 100mph on a regular basis and the slider is faster than a handful of starters' fastballs. The peripherals are good and he's gotten the job done on multiple occasions already.
Cleveland is not going to be a committee given their history with Terry Francona and Clase should hold onto the role for the foreseeable future unless an injury or multi-week struggle occurs.
Lou Trivino - Oakland A's - 10% rostered
This one is tricky because prior to the A's signing Trevor Rosenthal, they announced Jake Diekman as the ninth-inning guy. However, now with Rosenthal injured, manager Bob Melvin made an intriguing statement.
We have not seen Trivino convert a save yet in 2021 but he had four in 2018 as a rookie and is looking the best he has since then. Worth picking up given his availability and the team's likelihood to stick to one guy.
Blue Jays' Bullpen Situation
Julian Merryweather - Toronto Blue Jays - 78% rostered
By no means is Merryweather bad or unlikely to accrue more saves but you're playing with fire if spending a load of FAB on him. Yes, he has 5 strikeouts in 2IP and both saves for the Blue Jays but if you add context to the situations in which he closed, things become murkier.
In the first save opportunity, Romano pitched in the ninth inning of a tie game and then Merryweather came in to close the game out in the 10th after the Jays nabbed a lead. In the 2nd save opportunity, Merryweather appeared in the 9th in a more traditional aspect as Romano set him up the inning before. HOWEVER, Romano was asked to face the top of the Yankees order in LeMahieu-Judge-Hicks which Merryweather was faced with Torres-Bruce-Sanchez. Simple logic tells us which trio is tougher and who is more trusted in handling them.
Jays' manager Charlie Montoyo came out and said that they want Merryweather to continue pitching in high leverage situations but are not comfortable with him going more than one inning or even pitching back-to-backs. While Merryweather will see more saves this year than expected, Jordan Romano is the reliever to value more.
NOTE: Merryweather (oblique) is now on the 10-Day IL thanks to an injury suffered in-game. It was initially described as hip irritation.
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