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Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, April 14th, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/14
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- Winnipeg Jets vs. Ottawa Senators
- Calgary Flames vs. Montreal Canadiens
- Colorado Avalanche vs. St. Louis Blues
- Vegas Golden Knights vs. Los Angeles Kings
- Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks
Please note that the Arizona-Minnesota game starts at 2:00 pm EDT and is not on the main slate this evening.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a five-game main slate, picking the right goalie is still important but not life and death. Out of the ten goaltenders, which goalie gives the player the best chance at the most DFS points? Does one stay away from the North Division goalies? They are both great questions. Picking between these goaltenders may just be too rough of a proposition for most to stomach and most will look to whoever starts in Vegas or Philipp Grubauer for better or worse.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Anaheim Ducks vs. San Jose Sharks. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can San Jose get revenge for what happened on Monday night?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "Battle Of California" may be the biggest wildcard yet the Ottawa Senators vs. Winnipeg Jets have the numbers on their side. Which players does one choose?
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also more likely to do game stacks in some form or another.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these five clashes have that kind of appeal on Wednesday night.
Finally, this main slate is more like a balanced Wednesday slate much like the compressed schedule should be.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Nathan MacKinnon, COL ($9,200 DK / $9,300 FD) - MacKinnon is our top pick because of the matchup even against St. Louis. He has another point streak going and has hit the DraftKings shot bonus six times in the last 12 contests. The center tallied another goal and assist versus Arizona on Monday night and the St. Louis defense has not had much of an answer for MacKinnon all year. In four meetings, MacKinnon has four goals, two assists, and 21 shots on goal. That translates to shot bonus and DFS floor gold. Even at a Connor McDavid-like price, MacKinnon still could hit value tonight versus the Blues. For those looking to save a bit of money, Mark Scheifele may have a similar matchup and he will cost a good $1,500-$2,000 less against the worst team on the slate defensively in Ottawa.
- Josh Norris, MTL ($4,100 DK / $4,000 FD) - We are going way down here again as Norris provides value on this night from the underpriced (yet again) Ottawa Senators. As the saying goes, there are always players who can be had from the value bin. This is no exception. Norris has points in consecutive games. His shot volume can be risky but with so many focused on just rostering players from Winnipeg, Ottawa carries some value playing at home. Norris also blocks nearly one shot a game at home. That does not sound like much but it is a bonus worth looking into in addition to the offense.
This is again a more typical Wednesday slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Vegas and Los Angeles. Looking to the Montreal power play is a contrarian risk but plausible. Does one risk going with San Jose players given what happened in the first "Battle Of California"? Maybe looking at a Tomas Hertl perhaps. But, that's it from this group.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Nik Ehlers, WPG ($7,100 DK / $6,600 FD) - Ehlers keeps taking his game to new heights as the season goes on. He has been Winnipeg's most consistent producer of offense and can even carry the likes of Mark Scheifele. That is impressive in itself and indicative that there is more room for production. That is very good news for fantasy and DFS owners. Can any defensive pair from the Ottawa Senators slow down Ehlers and even Kyle Connor? That is a big question mark for a team that allows more than 3.5 goals per game even at home. The expectation is that both teams are going to score a few goals.
- Max Pacioretty, VGK ($7,900 DK/ $7,500 FD) - Max Pacioretty gets the nod here because of how Los Angeles has regressed defensively. That is rather sobering. Vegas has cooled off some as well. However, they are in a better position. Pacioretty has points in three of his last five games and still has 31 shots in his previous ten contests. With two multiple-point efforts in his last three, Pacioretty may be turning the corner finally and may just enjoy a bit of a hot streak. Also, his FanDuel price does continue to inch downward which is encouraging.
Andrew Copp and Josh Anderson are the inevitable value plays on here that are around $4,000 on FanDuel for tonight. Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Thomas Chabot, OTT ($5,400 DK / $4,800 FD) - So, the point here was to save a little money. It could be okay to go with Cale Makar on Wednesday night and spend up a bit more. However, we went a notch down with Chabot. This expects to be a speed matchup where Chabot can attack and will be attacked. The expectation is that his line matches against Winnipeg's top line. That top-line makes it tough for anyone. Monday night proved that both can produce and almost equally. Chabot's floor only adds to this pick. He can add several shots and blocked shots to the potential for assists. Chabot averaging nearly three shots a game and just over two blocked shots a night just adds to the ownership expectations.
- Vince Dunn, STL ($3,300 DK / $3,800 FD) - Let's keep this easy. His price is too damn low and his usage is as well. The problem most argue is his defensive acumen. That is partially because Craig Berube and the coaching staff almost seem afraid. The power-play specialist has evolved and adapted his game to be more of a two-way force of sorts. He has points in two of his last three games and Colorado will allow opportunities from a mobile defense. Dunn is the puck-moving defenseman that St. Louis needs to play more tonight against Colorado. Safe is death against the Avalanche. No longer can you just pack it in and hope.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Mario Ferraro and Sean Walker carry some intrigue from the value tier.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Los Angeles (Cal Petersen may be worth a look), etc. There were no confirmations at press time. However, one is looking for shot volume and marginally decent matchups. If Marc-Andre Fleury starts, he will be an intriguing start tonight. Jordan Binnington may be a bit of a contrarian pick tonight even against Colorado. The expectation is he will face lots of shots. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:00 pm EDT lock.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- WPG 1
- Connor/ Scheifele/ Ehlers (do watch a line shift here).
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty/ Stone/ Martinez from the D? (center add on)
- COL 1
- Rantanen / MacKinnon / Landeskog? (Makar or Toews, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: SJS 1, COL 3, LAK1, MTL 2, ANA 1, STL 1 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially with Los Angeles and St. Louis).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
