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We've got a bit of a split slate today with an almost even number of day games and night games. I do love that Major League Baseball has added more day games into the schedule, but it gives us some shallow slates to work with. The main slate on DraftKings, in particular, is going to be rough for pitching. Julio Urias comes in as the top arm on the slate, taking on the Rockies at home in Los Angeles, and then Patrick Corbin will be a chalky SP2 against Arizona. Beyond that, you're taking a gamble anywhere, which means you may need to find cheap bats in order to fit in your pitching. The good news is, mediocre pitching gives us lots of potential value bats, led by the Royals, Athletics, and Tigers.
Every slate, we'll look at the players we think can provide the most value for their dollar. These are daily outlier value plays or lesser thought-of guys. They usually lay outside of the main pool of players that folks would be considering, but could vary based on that day's games and lineups. These players can be low-cost with good matchups, surprise starters with good matchups, and very cheap players with good matchups.
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!Below you will find our Premium DFS value plays for 4/15/2021. These picks will target low-priced players in the main slate. (I'll throw in a few afternoon slate values as well, just in case people are playing both slates)
Top Value Plays of the Day for 4/15/2021
Jakob Junis - SP, KC vs Toronto (FD $6000, DK $6400)
If you're going to pay down for pitching on DraftKings, Junis is really the only option I'm looking at. We've talked at length on Rotoballer about the cutter that he added this offseason, and the pitch is a legitimate weapon. It's allowed only a .143 batting average against and .143 slugging percentage against on the year while registering a 54.5% whiff rate. Junis throws it 24% of the time to help offset his four-seam fastball but can also mix in a solid slider as well. It's not the best pitch mix, but it gets swings-and-misses, particularly against right-handed dominant lineups, which is what we're looking for in DFS. While the Blue Jays are typically not an offense that we want to attack, they do have a fair share of free-swinging right-handed hitters, which could lead to a solid number of strikeouts or early groundball outs for Junis. Considering this game is also being played in Kauffman Stadium and not Dunedin, I think it lessens the potential for a blow-up outing and makes Junis an intriguing salary play on DraftKings as your SP2.
AFTERNOON SLATE OPTION: Trevor Rogers, MIA at Atlanta Braves (FD $7500, DK $6600)
Jose Trevino - C, TEX at Rich Hill (FD $2300, DK $3100)
Woof. Good luck if you're one who usually pays down for catching (like I do). With so few teams in action tonight, there really aren't many value pieces, and I'm not attacking Urias on the road with Rockies catchers. Trevino may not have the homerun upside of somebody like Wilson Ramos, but he's a good hitter with a winnable matchup against Rich Hill and a Tampa Bay bullpen that has been decimated by injuries. Trevino may not have any HRs on the year, but he's hitting .387 with a .826 OPS and, throughout his career, has hit .314 against lefties as opposed to .248 against righties. I think he has a solid floor tonight, which allows you to chase upside elsewhere.
AFTERNOON SLATE OPTION: Jacob Stallings, PIT vs Chris Paddack (FD $2800, DK $2700)
Renato Nunez- 1B, DET at Sean Manaea (FD $3100, DK $3800)
It was a surprise to many when Nunez was sent to the alternate site at the start of the season. The Tigers didn't exactly have the strongest offense, and Nunez had hit 12 HRs in 52 games in the shortened season after hitting 31 HRs in 2019. I'm sure I don't have you tell you that HRs are good for DFS, and Nunez has already hit two in the four games since he was recalled after Miguel Cabrera's injury. Playing in Oakland isn't the best for power, but Nunez has the thump to drive the ball out of any park, and he'll hit in the middle of a Tigers offense that is coming alive a bit lately. This play is also a bit of an indictment for me against Manaea, who I think is simply not a great arm, even with the added velocity. I think the Tigers can stay hot today and think you can also roll with Jonathan Schoop 1B/2B (FD $2200, DK $3400) as he now has hits in four straight games, going 5-for-16 and could have a breakout around the corner.
AFTERNOON SLATE OPTION: Jose Marmolejos, SEA at Matt Harvey (DK $3600)
Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK vs Tarik Skubal (FD $2800, DK $3600)
I don't care, just play Jed Lowrie. He's 36! Yup, I don't care. He has more power from the left side but he'll be hitting righty against Skubal! Yup, I don't care. If I could fill an entire lineup with players the Mets let go, I would and I'd win money. There is just something in that post-Mets air that wakes people up, and Lowrie is crushing right now. He has hits in six of his last seven and during a current five-game hitting streak, he's hitting 9-for-19 with 2 HR, 6 Runs, and 10 RBI. He hits at the top of a solid Athletics lineup and also has the patience to wait out Skubal's array of inconsistent offspeed pitches before peppering the fastball. People are still not buying in; you shouldn't be one of them.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, DET vs Sean Manaea (FD $2800, DK $4000)
Jeimer is another part of a low-cost Tigers stack you can run against Manaea. The dude loves hitting lefties, batting .284 with a .811 OPS over his career, as opposed to a .224 average and .711 OPS against righties. Like many Tigers hitters, Candelario is running hot right now with a five-game hitting streak that has seen him go 9-for-19 with 5 RBI while hitting in the middle of the lineup. He could be in the heart of a few rallies tonight and will likely be an overlooked option for your lineup.
AFTERNOON SLATE OPTION: Jazz Chisholm, MIA at Ian Anderson (FD $2500, DK $3500)
Ramon Laureano, OF, OAK vs Tarik Skubal (FD $3900 DK $3800)
If you're not going to thump home runs, another great way to rack up DFS points is through stolen bases, and Laureano currently leads the league with eight. EIGHT! He's played nine games! The next highest total is Garrett Hampson with four. Laureano is a man on a mission and Wilson Ramos is not the defensive catcher that is going to prevent Laureano from swiping a base or two. On top of that, Laureano is 6-for-14 over his last three games with 5 runs scored and an average of 21 DK points per game. He's racking up fantasy goodness in a number of different ways, and I think Oakland can get to Skubal here, which makes Laureano one of my favorite plays on the slate at DraftKings.
Michael A. Taylor, OF, KC vs Tanner Roark (FD $2800, DK $3300)
Kyle Isbel, OF, KC vs Tanner Roark (FD $2400, DK $2500)
I mentioned that the Royals are one of my preferred short stacks on the Main Slate and part of the reason for that is the cheap options they have to fill out your roster if you want to go chalk and stack the Dodgers. It all starts with the man on the mound; Tanner Roark has been a pitcher we've wanted to attack for a couple of years now. He doesn't rack up many strikeouts, gives up a tremendous amount of hard contact, and has a bit of a home run issue. Those are things we love in a pitcher we're stacking against. Both Taylor and Isbel have cooled from their hot starts, but I think people are writing them off too quickly.
Taylor is still hitting the ball hard, with a 17.2% barrel rate and 93.5 MPH average exit velocity. His expected stats suggest that the current dip in batting average and slugging percentage is not warranted, and I think a few strong games are around the corner. Isbel has also experienced a few ups-and-downs of late, which is to be expected of a rookie but much of that has come because of the increased strikeout rate. I don't think Roark has the repertoire to take advantage of Isbel's contact problems of late, which means we could see a good game from the rookie. He's the riskiest option on this list, but he's also one of the cheapest, so I think that's baked into the price.
Stephen Piscotty, OF, OAK vs Tarik Skubal (FD $2500, DK $2500)
If you want another cheap OF pivot, Piscotty is your man. We've already talked about why we're comfortable stacking against Skubal, but Piscotty is also coming off a 2-4 game with a HR and 17 DK points. We know he hits lefties well, with a .280 average, .842 OPS, and .201 ISO over his seven-year career, so there's nothing Skubal will throw at him that he can't handle. If you're hoping for fantasy goodness on one swing and don't really want to pay for it, Piscotty is your man.
AFTERNOON SLATE OPTION: Tommy Pham, PIT at Mitch Keller (FD $2700, DK $3100), Taylor Trammell, SEA at Matt Harvey (DK $3000)
