RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey season is rolling along and there are just a few weeks left in the regular season! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Wednesday, April 21st, 2021 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 4/21
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- Nashville Predators vs. Chicago Blackhawks
- Minnesota Wild vs. Arizona Coyotes
- San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights
- Montreal Canadiens vs. Edmonton Oilers
Please note that the Chicago-Nashville game starts at 7:00 pm EDT and Edmonton-Montreal begins at 10:00 pm EDT.
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
With a four-game main slate, picking the right goalie will be a challenge especially considering Mike Smith is likely to start for Edmonton. Will Jake Allen be able to answer the bell now that Carey Price is out with a concussion? A lot of DFS players will try to go to that well once more. The other likely higher-owned goalie will be whoever starts for Vegas against San Jose.
The matchup that generates some intrigue is the Minnesota Wild vs. Arizona Coyotes. From a hockey standpoint, this would not move the needle. However, from a DFS perspective, this might be a bit more interesting. Can Darcy Kuemper bounce back after giving up four goals on 23 shots Monday?
NHL DFS Power Play Analysis
The "temptation" to heavily stack Edmonton is quite real on a four-game slate. Given how Edmonton ran over Montreal in the third period on Monday, it would be hard to stay too far away from that.
It will be a bit more challenging on this slate to stack lines, but also more likely to do game stacks in some form or another.
Does any game have the potential to feature a goalie duel? It would appear no on the surface. None of these four games seem to appeal that way.
Finally, this main slate is more like a balanced Wednesday slate much like the compressed schedule should be.
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NHL DFS Core Plays
The Core plays below are the players that you should focus on incorporating into your cash game builds and tournament builds. When it comes to cash games, you want guys that offer high floors that rack up peripheral stats (shots, blocks, etc).
When it comes to tournaments, it is best to take a core play and see who their linemates are and build line stacks based on that. I will give 2-3 plays (varies on slate size) at each position at different pricing ranges so that you can have a variety of plays to choose from when building your cash builds. Today's slate will be kept simple again but more plays available on social media as line changes and goalie confirmations roll in later in the day.
NHL DFS Center Picks
- Connor McDavid, EDM ($9,100 DK / $9,100 FD) - The falloff from McDavid to anyone else tonight is like a cliff. Now, if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins plays, that will help some and as far as stacking. Again, will Nugent-Hopkins play (missed four games due to an "upper-body" issue). McDavid got energized and played with an edge. He has to keep doing that as the games get more intense. Montreal will try to get physical with him but the feeling is short of Josh Anderson, few will take him to task. When the speed and edge are there, few can slow down McDavid. With the Edmonton pivot expected to be heavily owned, it will be about stacking other players. Does one look at a value play like Ethan Bear on defense for example along with Jesse Puljujarvi for example? Stacking creatively may be key on Wednesday. Be a little different compared to the normal, standard fare.
- Chandler Stephenson, VGK ($4,700 DK / $4,600 FD) - We are a little way down and the idea of stacking Stephenson with a Max Pacioretty has some value because of using the center with a high-volume shooter. Again, Stephenson-Pacioretty-Martinez has some upside in a C-W-D alignment. Stephenson can block some shots as he has six in the previous four games. His point total can be infuriating but he has a nicer floor on this slate than most. It is a way to backdoor some DFS points and the matchup against San Jose expects to be a physical one where a netfront presence could lead to a potential assist or goal.
This is again a more typical Wednesday slate. As we mentioned above, it is okay to look at value players because the slate dictates looking at more than the usual suspects. Someone is going to go off unexpectedly which is inevitable but the case that some middle-six lines could in multitude. Watch for some line shifts -- especially with Vegas and Los Angeles. Looking to the Montreal power play is a contrarian risk but plausible. Maybe looking at a Tomas Hertl or Logan Couture perhaps. But, that's it from this group.
NHL DFS Wing Picks
- Kirill Kaprizov, MIN ($6,900 DK / $6,000 FD) - Kaprizov may have more FanDuel value because his price is right around FanDuel's average price per player ($6,111 by the way). The Calder Trophy candidate has a nice streak going again with six goals and nine points in his last nine games. This is all while averaging right around three shots a game and three scoring chances a contest. Arizona had a tough time slowing him down in game one of their miniseries. Kaprizov's off-wing acceleration, in particular, caused Arizona's wingers and Oliver Ekman-Larsson a lot of problems. Minnesota's suddenly hot power-play (43% last ten games) is a viable stacking option even. Okay, maybe we take the suddenly out of the equation. That power-play could be a backdoor lower-owned stack like on Monday.
- Alex DeBrincat, VGK ($7,100 DK/ $7,100 FD) - Max Pacioretty was mentioned already and DeBrincat gets the nod here because this is like playing high-stakes chicken. Who implodes first? Nashville or Chicago or both? The Patrick Kane-DeBrincat duo connected once on Monday and that may be all it takes for DeBrincat to hit value. Lately, when the cheaper Chicago winger hits three shots, he scores. It is crazy but that has been the last three times. So, if numerology was a theme, we look for the three. With Vegas facing the worst DFS defense for wingers in San Jose, the higher-owned plays will be heavily tilted to Vegas and maybe Leon Draisaitl from Edmonton as players gamble. DeBrincat in a game that Chicago needs to keep pace playoff bubble-wise is a decent bet.
Eeli Tolvanen (if he plays) and Josh Anderson are the inevitable value choices tonight that are around $4,000 on FanDuel and even DraftKings for tonight. Please understand that there will be some inevitable in-game shifts particularly if there are any goalie changes in the later games. These are situations to keep an eye on. Simply watch to see line shifts in the later games. On social media and Slack, we will try to spot some of these possible buy-low candidates.
Something else we should add is to stay away from players like Conor Garland who are battling nagging injuries. There is the inevitable game-time decision (on larger slates, it may be okay to risk but not here). So many players are just not 100% and it is our job to try and spot them which is why social media is so vital.
NHL DFS Defenseman Picks
- Alec Martinez, VGK ($5,400 DK / $4,700 FD) - So, the point here was to save a little money. It could be okay to go with Shea Theodore but the blocked shots bonus potential and floor of Martinez is hard to overlook. He is priced below player average on DraftKings by a whisker still. Martinez even has six points in his last nine games and had seven blocked shots two games ago. With the DFS slump of Jeff Petry, Martinez becomes the easier choice. Does the idea become to look at maybe a lesser option that again has been overlooked much like he was on Monday night???
- Alex Goligoski, ARZ ($4,200 DK / $3,700 FD) - Let's keep this easy. His price is too damn low and his usage is as well. The problem most argue is his defensive acumen. That is somewhat because it is Arizona and the price structure was the same on a player like Jakob Chychrun for a long while. Actually, it is more due to Goligoski's age and mileage. While he is on a point streak, one must attack. Goligoski has an ability to get shots on net and block a decent amount of shots. The goal streak is at two and the Arizona defender has 4+ blocks in three of his previous six contests.
Rostering players against the grain a bit may pay off tonight. Take advantage of it! Value plays are very hit and miss tonight because of how this slate is set up. Keep that in mind as one is looking at stacking lines and creating lineups. Players like Mario Ferraro and Jonas Brodin carry some intrigue from the value tier. Minnesota's defensemen are under-priced on this slate somewhat.
NHL DFS Goalie Picks
- Many apologies will be needed for what we have to say. First, see below.
Goalies to consider: WAIT FOR CONFIRMATIONS (the shorter slate and risk are high tonight).
Note: If you do roster a goalie that seems higher-risk to you, it is sometimes best to make different lineups in tournaments. Watch to see who starts for Vegas tonight whether it be Fleury or Lehner. Also, Mike Smith is projected to start for Edmonton tonight as his dream sequence I mean season continues. Smith is actually in some conversations as a possible Vezina finalist. The key tonight may just be patience in waiting to see who starts and does not start. Confirmations on social media should come for the later games closer to that 7:00 pm EDT lock. Could Cam Talbot be one to look at on the road against Arizona? He should see a good volume of shots.
Favorite NHL DFS Line Stacks
- EDM 1
- McDavid/ Puljujarvi/ Bear/Nurse from the D (do watch a line shift here).
- VGK 1
- Pacioretty/ Stone/ Martinez from the D? (center add on)
- MIN PP 1
- Kaprizov / Bonino / Fiala(Spurgeon, D-men add on)
Other Stacks to consider: SJS 1, ARZ 2, CHI 1, MTL 2, NSH 2, VGK 3 (Watch to see what shifts in the late games especially in Edmonton and Vegas).
Key Abbreviations:
xGF/60= expected goal for per 60 minutes of ice time
GF/60= goals for per 60 minutes of ice time
SC/60= Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ice time
If you have any additional questions, make sure to reach out to me on Twitter or in our NHL room at the RotoBaller slack chat!
