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Hey, don't blame me for spoiling you with packed cards and then putting together events such as this weekend's, folks! It's Dana here handling everything. I'm just another blogger writing from his mom's basement. Anyway. The UFC will be back in Vegas for the 25th time (quite the number!) but after what the promo put together just last weekend, well, let's say that this one was always going to feel like a little bit of a letdown even if it had included a tittle fight. That's right, mostly because there were three belts on the line last Saturday in Florida. Insane.
While we wait for UFC 262, which will take place next May 15 in Houston after a couple of Vegas events, we kick off the waiting period with a card headlined by Light Heavyweights Dom Reyes, who will try to get back to the winning column after dropping two consecutive championship fights, and Jiri Prochazka, who is just 1-0 in the UFC but whose impressive 5:49-minute KO in his debut made the rounds last December. Let's get to the full breakdown!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA value picks for UFC Vegas 25: Reyes vs. Prochazka on 05/01/21. You can check out our DraftKings/FanDuel MMA DFS overall-lineup picks as well, in which we take all fighters into consideration. These DFS value picks, though, are focused on lower-priced fighters on both FanDuel and DraftKings pools of fighters. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dominick Reyes, $7900 - vs. Jiri Prochazka
Dom Reyes looked great--until he didn't. Reyes debuted all the way back in June of 2017 with a resounding 29-second KO of Joachim Christensen. No big name, I know, but still a great way to kick it off in the UFC. He went on to score five more wins from that moment to Oct. 2019, and all that seemed to be left for Reyes was a shot for the gold: enter Jon Jones and UFC 247. Enter, too, a loss to Jones followed by another loss in another title fight to Jan Blachowicz in Sep. 2020...
Jiri, much like his foe this weekend, started his UFC tenure with a bang less than a year ago when he dropped Volkan Oezdemir in 5 minutes and 49 seconds of fighting time with a second-round KO. That's what they call a small sample, but so far so good for the sophomore.
That being said, I'm betting of Reyes to pull off the comeback W here and hand Jiri his first loss in twice as many fights under the UFC banner. The discount is steep, and although the last two outings didn't go too good for Dom, let's not forget his absolutely dominant 6-0 run leading up to that two-fight losing streak spanning a little over two years.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Giga Chikadze, $8600 - vs. Cub Swanson
Giga Chikadze and his five-fight UFC career is getting put against Cub Swanson and his impressive 19-fight log that gets all the way back to Nov. 2011. That's correct. Swanson debuted on a FOX broadcast against Ricardo Lamas almost a decade ago, went on to lose that fight, but then rebounded with a great six-fight winning streak. He actually went 10-2 in his next 12, but those were the good old Swanson days. Cub is 2-4 in his last fight since Dec. 2017, although those two wins account for his last two outings, which bodes well for the veteran.
Chikadze, on the other hand, has been inside the Octagon just five times prior to this weekend. But it is not that he could have done much better than he has as he's a perfect 5-0 fighter these days with four decisions and one KO to his name, the latter happening last November in his last time out there in the wild against Jamey Simmons. All of 3:51 minutes is what it took Chikadze to drop his opponent back then, and a grand total of 8 SS landed. Yikes.
While Swanson is on a winning streak of late, the truth is that his prior four losses aren't that encouraging... He dropped two decisions and got subbed twice, and while Giga is not an artist on the mat nor goes after foes via takedowns more than once a fight, he throws great volume and lands above 42% of his SS. High price but high chances of getting his sixth W in a row here, too.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Jacoby, $8000 - vs. Ion Cutelaba
Dustin Jacoby's story is quite the one, folks. He debuted in the UFC back in 2011 and went on to lose two fights before Dana got full of him and cut him from the promo with an 0-2 record attached to his name. Now, a freaking 9 years later, Dustin Jacoby finds himself fighting under the UFC banner once more and is currently holding a two-fight winning streak. Talk about a comeback.
Cutelaba isn't new to the promo himself, with eight fights under his belt already... but definitely no real belt to show for them. Cutelaba is an even 4-4, but he lost his two 2020 outings (both to Magomed Ankalaev) via first-round KOs in the span of eight months. Not only did he got rocked then and there, but actually every time he's lost a fight it's been either by the way of KO or submission. Nothing to hate, though, has he's made up for those with three KO wins himself (all first-rounders) and a decision (though this happened in his second fight all the way back in Oct. 2016).
This looks like a short one. These two guys have combined for 10 early stoppages in their 13 total fights. If this doesn't end before the final bell then I don't even know... On that front, Cutelaba feels like the fighter at risk here having eaten a couple of KOs of late with Jacoby handing one himself to Justin Ledet six months ago in just 2:38 minutes of fighting time. Vegas has this one as a close one, but I'm favoring the slightly cheaper Jacoby to get his third win in a row and keep trolling Dana.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sean Strickland, $9200 - vs. Krzysztof Jotko
This fight can have it all. Both fighters have ongoing winning streaks of three Ws and no losses in their last three outings, both can do it on the ground and standing (Strickland is the higher-volume striker, though), and both have eaten a KO in the last three years, making for a good what-if possible outcome to watch for come Saturday.
Strickland hasn't lost since 2019 with three wins via decision in that time. Jotko has two ins in 2020 (one KO, one decision) and another one back in 2018 (KO) the last time he fought prior to those two (it must be said, though, that Jotko lost the prior fight via first-round KO himself).
Oddsmakers are pegging Strickland as the massive favorite here with a -250 ML compared to Jotko's 195, and they're giving Strickland a massive 72% winning chance. The distance is pretty much insane, as Strickland projects to almost double the fantasy points of Jotko for this weekend. I know you hate to pick the favorite, but the dog on this one looks a little too doggy as to bet on him safely.
DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Merab Dvalishvili, $9000 - vs. Cody Stamann
Is there any fighter out there looking as good as Merab these days? Probably, but it is not Merab's foul. Dvalishvili started his career dropping two straight in a span of five months ending in April of 2018... and knows no defeat since then leading up to last year when he went 3-0. Merab is now on a five-fight winning streak and, well, looking dangerous.
Cody Stamann has been quite more shaky of late, going 2-2-1 in his last five after winning his first three fights in the UFC. Stamann will face a man that is averaging 150 SS attempts per fight compared to his lower 120, and most of all is going against a takedown artist in Merab: Dvalishvili has attempted a monster 124 TDs on his seven fights for an average of almost 18 TD per fight (!!!) landing an even more impressive 46% of those. Bananas.
This bout will go the distance. That, I can guarantee. And if it does not, it will only be because of an early stoppage because of a lock by Merab that puts Cody closer than he's ever been to fainting inside an Octagon. Merab is as favorite as they come here and it'd take pretty much a miracle to watch Stamann's fist raised this weekend. Merab (94) projects to almost 100 DKFP this weekend and at the time of this writing is part of a freaking 52% of lineups. Wisdom of the crowd, folks.
