RADIO
We had some excitement for Thursday iteration my MLB picks. Oakland plated the go-ahead run in the top of the ninth to cash the moneyline, then we pushed on the under in the Philly/St. Louis game that only pushed because it went to extra innings. It obviously could have been a loss, so we'll take the push, but it just goes to show it was the right play. Onto Friday!
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
As mentioned, it's been a tough start to the season in betting terms, but the team here at RotoBaller is here to give you top-notch analysis. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, April 30. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-2.25u)
- O/U Record: 8-3-2 (+4.28u)
- Runline Record: 2-4 (-2.1u)
- First 5 Record: 3-3-3 (-.44u)
- Prop Record: 2-4-1 (-1.05u)
- 2021 Total Record: 17-18-6 (-2.84u)
Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8 | MIN -139 KCR +130
Kansas City: Brady Singer; Minnesota: Michael Pineda
Singer has really smoothed things out after his first outing, allowing just two earned runs over his last three starts spanning 18 innings. Scattering just 12 hits with a 20/3 K/BB, the 24-year-old is shining for this Royals rotation. Offensively, this Royals lineup isn't exactly exciting. Before the 9-6 win Wednesday over Pittsburgh, they had scored just 11 runs over the previous four, though they are 4-1 in the L5. They hit RHP well, but not on the road, carrying just a .278 wOBA, .117 ISO, and 81 wRC+ into this series.
All things considered, Pineda has been solid through four starts this year. He did let up four runs in just 4.1 IP last time out, and he's also served up four homers so far. The 32-year-old hasn't exactly displayed dynamite stuff, but he does have just two walks in the last three starts, paired with 17 strikeouts, so the upside is there. Offensively, this Twins lineup should be built for lopsided outputs, but they're just not doing it right now, scoring four or more just once in the last two series' (sans Wednesday's 10-2 victory). Oddly enough, they're terrible against RHP at home, holding a .595 OPS, .263 wOBA, .119 ISO, and a 70 wRC+, all some of the worst numbers in the league.
This should be a sneaky pitchers duel. Both have the ability to work into the latter innings, and for the most part are in solid form against struggling offenses. I like it to be low scoring throughout, but I'm going to focus on the starters getting the job done.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-115, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | BOS -160 TEX +150
Boston: Nathan Eovaldi; Texas: Kohei Arihara
Eovaldi is coming off his worst start through the first five of 2021, allowing four earned runs in five innings with just three strikeouts. He hasn't surrendered a homer through 28.2 IP, which is legit based on the 6.8 degree average launch angle the .354 xSLG. The 31-year-old is the ace of this staff right now and with just five walks, he seems to be ready to continue this pace. The Red Sox lineup is dangerous, though they'll be without J.D. Martinez (illness) Friday. As a unit, they carry a .767 OPS with a 114 wRC+ against RHP, numbers that get a nice boost on the road. Despite missing Martinez, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts, among others, mash righties.
The Rangers have been pleasantly surprised with Arihara in his MLB debut season. His last start was a real clunker, lasting just two innings while allowing five runs; however, his two start prior he didn't allow a run and scattered just five hits over 11.1 IP. Although taking a look at his Statcast metrics, the platform is expecting more blowups like his last start, ranking below the 10th percentile in almost every itching category. Offensively, Texas will have their hands full with Eovaldi, and while they've been better against RHP following a slow start, when they're at home things aren't good. They average just 2.6 runs per game at Globe Life Park, the lowest in MLB and add in they carry a .272 wOBA with just a 76 wRC+ against righties at home and things aren't pretty.
Eovaldi is in pretty good form right now, while Arihara is fresh off a blow up outing and we have no idea how he will respond. The Boston starter should have enough run support to work into the latter half of the game only to be backed up by a strong bullpen with a 3.07 ERA.
Pick: Boston -1.5 (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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