RADIO
No, it isn't a Saturday and you've lost three days of your life. I'm filling in for Steve today and hopefully have a bit more luck than I did Saturday. Two big first innings destroyed us with Andrew McCutchen being nutmegged by a line drive and costing us two runs. The under missed by two runs. And the Giants gave up three runs in the first, fought back but came up one run short in the fifth to cover. Taillon did hit the over in strikeouts to avoid us being blanked. The prop bets have been kind to us so we'll continue finding value with them as often as possible.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-2 (-1.13 U)
- Runline Record: 0-3 (-2.0 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-2 (-0.63 U)
- Prop Record: 5-2 (+3.15 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 7-10 (-1.11 U)
Chicago White Sox at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS +120, CIN -130
CWS: Dallas Keuchel | CIN: Sonny Gray
The White Sox took Tuesday night's interleague game 9-0, with the Reds being shut out at home for the first time all season (four shutouts on the road). The Great American Ballpark has been living up to expectations as a hitters park and has seen 210 runs scored in 16 games so far this year (13.13 runs per game). Only once this year has there been fewer than nine runs scored at a Reds home game.
Those runs have been aided by the Reds' atrocious bullpen which sports a 5.81 ERA (second-worst in MLB) and gave up another five runs in 6.2 innings last night. Sonny Gray is making just his fourth start of the campaign following an IL stint to start the season. He currently has a 5.93 ERA, a 1.76 WHIP and has allowed a homer in all three starts. He'll likely be stretched out far enough by now to go deeper in games but he labored to 5.2 innings on 95 pitches last time out so the Reds bullpen will likely be called into action for at least three innings. The Reds offense ranks second in SLG (.441) and wOBA (.333) and has scored more runs than 27 other teams (only the Dodgers and Diamondbacks have scored more).
Dallas Keuchel is struggling to start the season too with a 4.65 ERA from his six starts. He's not a strikeout pitcher (16 K in 31.0 IP) and has allowed three or more earned runs in four of his six starts. The White Sox bullpen is pretty mediocre and has a 4.27 ERA (ranks 18th best in MLB). The White Sox offense has been pretty potent, ranking sixth in runs scored (143 in 28 games) and fourth in wOBA (.327).
As if the ballpark needed more assistance in helping offenses, the weather forecasts an 11 MPH wind blowing out to center field. It's a day game, the sun will be shining and I expect the ball to be flying.
Pick: Over/Under total runs - Over 8.5 (-103) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
The Orioles' offense ranks 26th in runs scored (114 runs in 30 games). Despite struggling to put runs on the board, they don't strike out excessively. Collectively, they have 24.4% K% against left-handed pitching (LHP) which is the 14th highest in MLB. They're due to face Yusei Kikuchi who has 27 K in 30.1 IP this year (five starts) and a 21.8% K%. Kikuchi has faced the Astros (twice), Red Sox and Giants, all of whom rank in the five lowest teams for K% against LHP. Despite that, he recorded ten strikeouts against the Giants and seven in his last start against the Astros, while striking out six against the Twins. Against softer opposition such as the Orioles, I expect Kikuchi to hit the over.
Pick: Kikuchi over 5.5 K (+100) 1 Unit
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