RADIO
If you were here on Wednesday when I covered for Steve, you'd have read about how I'm leaning more to the prop bets which have been kind to me so far. What happened on Wednesday? The prop bet came in but the over/under pick did not, making it a break-even day. The over/under was a complete disaster. In 15 of the Reds' 16 home games this year, there had been nine or more runs. The two starting pitchers had a combined ERA of over five, it was a sunny day game with winds blowing out to centerfield, yet the game ended 1-0. Sometimes, baseball is completely unpredictable.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-3 (-2.13 U)
- Runline Record: 0-3 (-2.0 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-2 (-0.63 U)
- Prop Record: 6-2 (+4.15 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 8-11 (-1.11 U)
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CWS -170, KCR +150
CWS: Lance Lynn | KCR: Daniel Lynch
The White Sox enter this weekend in first place of the AL Central following a shutout win over the Royals on Friday night. Their starting pitching currently has the lowest ERA (2.77) and Lynn is a big part of that with his 1.82 ERA from four starts. Offensively, they have struggled a bit and losing Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez is a big reason why. Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu and Yasmani Grandal haven't contributed much offensively yet this year. In May, the White Sox have scored 19 runs in five games (3.8 per game) and have been shut out twice. In six of their last nine games, they have failed to score more than three runs.
For the Royals, last night means they've been shut out in back-to-back games and have scored just 17 runs in their last six games since beating the Twins 11-3 last Saturday. The Royals are sending Lynch to the mound for his second MLB start. His debut stat line from Monday might not have seemed very impressive (4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 3K) but that doesn't tell the full story. Rotoballer's very own Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) did a great video breakdown of Lynch's debut earlier this week which you can go and watch by clicking here.
Neither team's offense really looks likely to put up big numbers right now and when Lynn faced the Royals earlier this year, he pitched a complete game shut out. The main concern with the line is the Royals bullpen which has the fifth-highest ERA (5.03) so if Lynch doesn't go deep, they could be called into early action. The first five innings over/under is set at just four which is a bit tight but also worth considering as a safety net in case the Royals bullpen does get lit up.
Pick: Over/Under total runs - Under 9 (-120) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians
It's always a little scary picking a game the day after a no-hitter but Wade Miley's no-no was the second one against the Indians this year. The Cleveland offense just hasn't got going yet in 2021 and has scored 127 runs in 31 games (4.1 per game) which is tied-seventh fewest in MLB. Yesterday's loss came on the back of five straight wins which included a four-game sweep of the Royals so will have come as a surprise but also a timely reminder of their offensive struggles. Against right-handed pitching (RHP) they have the tied-ninth highest strikeout rate (K%) at 25.4%. Their walk rate (BB%) of 7.7% versus RHP is tied-sixth lowest in MLB.
Luis Castillo has been a big disappointment so far this season with a 6.07 ERA in six starts. A large part of that was from his Opening Day disaster (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings) but since then, he's put up a 4.10 ERA and has a 3.20 xFIP in those five starts. The strikeouts have been a bit lacking with a 17.9% K% so far which is well below his career 26.5% K%. Following yesterday's no-hitter, I expect the Indians to try and be as patient as possible. After being no-hit by Carlos Rodon earlier this year, the Indians tallied 14 strikeouts the next day and saw 150 pitches in nine innings as they tried to go deeper into counts. That's something Castillo could take advantage of here.
Pick: Castillo over 5.5 K (+105) 1 Unit
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
Carlos Martinez is having a solid season as a starter again with a 3.72 ERA from his six starts. The one thing he has lacked is strikeouts (20 K in 36.1 IP). Going back to the start of 2020, Martinez has a 14.7% K% in 11 starts and despite going at least five innings in every start this year, he's only topped four strikeouts once. That was against a Philadelphia team with the fourth-highest K% versus RHP (27.0%). As bad as the Rockies have been this year, they have the 13th lowest K% against RHP at 23.7% and in yesterday's contest, Jack Flaherty only picked up six strikeouts in seven innings against them. Flaherty's 25.8% K% this year is considerably better than Martinez's.
It's not easy picking the under on smaller lines but this one still seems like there's enough meat on the bones to offer value.
Pick: Martinez under 4.5 K (-110) 1 Unit
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