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Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
A humbling Friday brought us down a tick, after posting a solid 5-0 record in the days prior. Still feeling strong about the mindset I’m in this far with picking plays, and hoping to get back into the positive and stay there! Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Tuesday, May 18. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 4-4 (-.18u)
- O/U Record: 9-8-2 (+.15u)
- Runline Record: 4-4 (+0.45u)
- First 5 Record: 6-4-3 (+.73u)
- Prop Record: 2-5-1 (-2.71u)
- 2021 Total Record: 25-25-6 (-1.56u)
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
O/U: 8 | CWS -110 MIN -105
Chicago: Lance Lynn; Minnesota: Michael Pineda
Lynn is off to a fantastic start, allowing just five earned runs over his first six starts (34.2 IP). Those five runs came in just two start, and he now hasn’t allowed a run in his last two outings. It’s no fluke, as his xERA and xwOBA, among other metrics, rank in the top tier of the leagues arms. The lineup behind him has been surging of late, and they’re strong against RHP, posting a .326 wOBA and 112 wRC+. They dropped 16 Monday night and have now scored nine or more runs six times in May.
After a strong open to the season, Pineda has taken a few steps back. Over his last four starts (20.2 IP), he’s allowed 10 earned runs, including six long balls, with a 22/7 K/BB. As a team in general, the Twins have really been struggling, going just 2-8 in their L10. However, their issue hasn’t been hitting RHP, as they’re slashing .252/.329/.416 since the beginning of May. It’s backed up by a .325 wOBA and 108 wRC+, so there are definitely better days ahead for this lineup.
The White Sox average the most runs through the first five innings in all of baseball, with 3.9 per game, and they actually average 4.2 F5 runs per game on the road. Lynn gives Chicago an advantage on the hill as well, making this a perfect mix for some first half value.
Pick: Chicago F5 ML (-110, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Milwaukee Brewers at Kansas City Royals
O/U: 7.5 | MIL -195 KCR +165
Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff; Kansas City: Kris Bubic
The Brewers have been playing .500 baseball of late, but they get a nice pre-game boost with Woodruff on the bump. The Brewers’ ace hasn’t allowed more than three runs since opening day and has only allowed two or more runs twice in eight starts, so to say he’s dominant is an understatement. One thing to note is he’s allowed a home run in each of his last three outings, but also has a 27/4 K/BB in that same span. Offensively, the Brewers have some work to do, but on the road against LHP, they’ve caused some problems. As a team, they host a .348 wOBA, a .198 ISO, with a 119 wRC+ as visitors against southpaws.
Bubic makes his first start of 2021 after throwing 12.2 innings of relief work. The southpaw has done well, allowing just two earned runs with a 10/7 K/BB. He’s thrown 11.2 straight scoreless innings, heading into Tuesday. The Royals are averaging 4.1 rpg but are slightly better at home, scoring 4.3 rpg. They don’t strike out much against RHP (21 K%), but will get put to the test against Woodruff. Their .318 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against righties at home out them slightly above or about league average.
Banking on another solid day from Woodruff here and hoping the Brewers’ lineup lives up to the task of mashing lefties on the road.
Pick: Milwaukee -1.5 (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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