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Welcome back to another MLB betting picks article here at RotoBaller! We have a full slate of MLB action on tap today and some games that definitely grab my attention with some elite spots for both hitters and pitchers. I usually play pretty light in DFS on Sunday and focus more on betting - especially since that's the focus of my research for this article every week!
If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! I will be doing these picks for you every Sunday going forward this Summer. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks
Last Week: 2-1
Season to Date: 9-5
Last week the Jays got us two wins with their team total and the game totals both going over while the Mets were our lone loss as they failed to take advantage of a good matchup against Patrick Corbin. I still feel pretty good about a 9-5 record going into this week, let's see if we can find a few more winners today.
Atlanta Braes @ Cincinatti Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CIN -157
ATL: Kyle Muller | CIN: Tyler Mahle
The Reds look to take three out of four here if they can win today, which they badly needed to do after getting swept in a four-game series in San Diego last week. The Braves are scuffling a bit of late, going 4-5 over their last nine games and their offense has really dropped off as they're only averaging 2 runs per game over that stretch.
The pitching matchup stands out here to me as a huge advantage for the Reds. They're sending arguably their best starter (or the guy who is at least having the best year on their staff) to the mound today in Tyler Mahle. Meanwhile, the Braves are going with rookie Kyle Muller - a 23-year old rookie southpaw. Muller certainly has some long-term upside, but just hasn't pitched much at AAA or at the big league level yet and had some worrisome walk numbers in the minors.
This Reds offense is good at home and even if Muller survives, the Braves bullpen has been subpar this year. I like Mahle to pitch well against a struggling Atlanta lineup and for the Reds to give him plenty of run support here. If you are feeling bold, you can get the Reds -1.5 at plus odds, but for now, I am going to stick with the moneyline (the Reds bullpen always makes me nervous, too).
Pick: Cincinnati ML (-157 DraftKings Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
L.A. Angels @ Tampa Bay Rays
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TBR -139
LAA: Patrick Sandoval | TBR: Ryan Yarbrough
Let's get a little riskier with our second bet today, it's no fun picking all favorites, right? We are bucking some trends here today as the Angels have lost five in a row and got demolished by this Tampa team 13-3 yesterday. But I have learned over the years to expect the unexpected on Sundays in Major League Baseball. I think we see the Angels pull one out today and it starts with their starting pitcher, Patrick Sandoval.
Sandoval started the year in the bullpen but has made six starts now and has been very impressive with a 25% strikeout rate and 53% groundball rate. He's shown some flashes of his potential before, but it might be the year that he finally puts it all together. Can he be a stopper here and shut down a Tampa offense that put up 13 runs yesterday, giving this depleted Angels lineup a chance to score enough runs to win?
I think so. Tampa is a team that has struggled against LHP all season and they come into this one with a 28% strikeout rate, .291 wOBA, and .139 ISO against them this year.
Yarbrough isn't a bad pitcher, but he does come into this game in poor form, having allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts.
It could be tight, but I like Angels to pick up the win and I love the value we get with them at plus odds on the books. In Sandoval we trust, let's get it.
Pick: L.A. Angels ML (+118) DraftKings Sportsbook
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