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Although the All-Star break is still a week away, Major League baseball has crossed into the second half of the schedule. Rather than focusing on one metric, it might be useful to examine leaderboards for all expected statistics in the Statcast realm.
In this iteration of Statcast hitter analysis, I will review the top players in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. You'll find the usual suspects near the top but I will discuss the surprising players who appear in order to determine their fantasy value going forward.
All Statcast metrics are current as of July 4, 2021 and data/graphs are taken from BaseballSavant.mlb.com.
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xwOBA Leaders
I'll admit that expected weighted on-base average isn't the most exciting stat, even for us baseball nerds, but it is one of the most telling. The top of the 2021 leaderboard is filled with the elite offensive players you'd expect to see... plus a couple of surprises.
It's been another year of frustration for those who rostered Byron Buxton in hopes of a breakout for the former top prospect. This time, it isn't his performance to blame but a continuation of injury problems. Buxton is on the shelf for a second time this season, currently due to a hand fracture known as a boxer's fracture that could keep him sidelined for another month. Our MLB injury guru broke this down last week. Buxton appeared to be on his way to putting it all together as an early MVP candidate (if there is such a thing in May) so those who are perennial optimists may consider acquiring him shortly after the ASB and stashing for the stretch run.
Evan Longoria continues to rank among the leaders in all Statcast areas but despite his return to relevance this year, he hasn't quite been a fantasy stud.
As we know, metrics like HardHit% and Exit Velocity can be misleading because scorching worm burners resulting in groundouts don't lead to base hits. His .300 xBA is excellent but his .280 average doesn't move the needle as much in roto leagues. His 13.4% walk rate boost his xwOBA but again, this doesn't help fantasy managers. Longo is certainly worth starting in 12-teamers and might see his power numbers increase if the barrel rate is maintained but this might be a case where he underachieves his xStats all year long.
George Springer is back! We can't read too much into such a tiny sample but it's nice to see him off to a fast start with five homers in 53 at-bats. He's already achieved a career-best 116.4 max exit velocity and has a .456 xwoBACON. The re-injury risk is always there but he could finally pay off handsomely for those who held steady.
xBA Leaders
What Michael Brantley lacks in power these days, he more than makes up for in average. Brantley saw his xBA fall down to .260 last year so there were concerns that the 34-year-old was on the decline. However, he and the entire Astros offense were down in 2020 and have bounced back stronger than ever. As a career .299 hitter, there should be no doubt he can keep this up. The 20-HR seasons may be over but the weight he carries in the average category alone makes him a must-start.
Ketel Marte wouldn't make this leaderboard with a cutoff of qualified batters only. I lowered the minimum PA threshold to 50 in order to show players who have been held back because of injury because they have a chance to be impact players when on the field. Marte had an outstanding 2019 and followed it with a massively disappointing 2020, so there was a great deal of debate about which one was the real Marte. So far, we're seeing an even better version of Marte with a .341 xBA that ranks second to only Brantley. He's also posting a career-high 91 MPH average exit velocity and .439 xwoBACON. Marte seems to be the real deal after all.
Aaron Judge is no stranger to these leaderboards and finds himself fourth on the expected slugging list, as expected. Did we think he'd be third in xBA though? Between Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Shohei Ohtani homering nearly every night, Judge has somehow flown under the radar and is putting together his best season since his breakout 2017. Can a slugger with a career .243 xBA maintain a .324 xBA throughout the season? That remains to be seen but it's certainly possible he holds close to .300 since he's trimmed his strikeout rate a second straight season down to 25.8%.
xSLG Leaders
At one point in late May, Tyler O'Neill had homered in four of five games since returning from the IL and became the hottest waiver wire add around. He didn't keep that pace, obviously, but has a solid .279/.333/.562 slash line compared to a .285/.403/.624 expected slash line. Notice the discrepancy, particularly the 62-point underachievement in SLG-xSLG. O'Neill ranks in the 98th percentile in Barrel rate and Sprint Speed, which is the type of power/speed combo that reminds one of Ronald Acuna Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. It's doubtful he'll ever reach those ranks but O'Neill is still worth hanging onto based on his massive ceiling. One day, that K% will start to drop just enough.
Bobby Bradley is slowly gaining steam but is only rostered in 15% of Yahoo leagues as of this writing. The .235 average is a concern but his .262 xBA and 26.2% K% shows that he isn't a three-true-outcome player. Cleveland isn't the best spot for counting stats but Bradley has the potential to binge on power and is stream worthy in an AL Central that is still weak on pitching.
Patrick Wisdom cameo! Wisdom is in some lofty company with an expected slugging rate up there with Nelson Cruz Jr. Problem is he did nearly all his damage over a two-week span in June and his 11 HR brought in just 19 RBI. This 29-year-old boasts a ridiculous 63% HardHit% but also a 40.6% K% and is usually no higher than sixth in the batting order for the Cubs. Enjoy your 15 minutes of fame on the Statcast leaderboard, Pat.
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