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MLB Hitter Studs and Duds - Advanced Metrics Leaders for Plate Discipline (Week 20)

brendan donovan fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

Unless you play in a points league, you may not care enough about walks and strikeouts for hitters to dig into such metrics. I'm here to tell you that plate discipline is the foundation of a skilled hitter and it leads to fantasy baseball goodness.

This week, we'll take a gander at the BB/K leaders by focusing on second-half surgers who have turned things up a notch since the All-Star break. The stats listed below only include games played since July 21st.

After you're done here, check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball at RotoBaller, including our weekly Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds articles each week.

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Second-Half Plate Discipline Leaders

Name Team PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OPS
J.P. Crawford SEA 114 10.5% 5.3% 2.00 .230 .580
Juan Soto SDP 120 24.2% 15.0% 1.61 .270 .903
Lars Nootbaar STL 95 21.1% 14.7% 1.43 .296 .949
Adley Rutschman BAL 116 19.8% 15.5% 1.28 .326 .994
Albert Almora Jr. CIN 56 19.6% 16.1% 1.22 .200 .646
Freddie Freeman LAD 124 12.1% 10.5% 1.15 .321 .884
Brendan Donovan STL 50 16.0% 14.0% 1.14 .317 .781
Stephen Vogt OAK 45 17.8% 15.6% 1.14 .139 .539
Jesse Winker SEA 91 19.8% 17.6% 1.13 .208 .793
Sean Murphy OAK 112 15.2% 14.3% 1.06 .277 .946
Vinnie Pasquantino KCR 111 10.8% 10.8% 1.00 .316 .908
Yandy Diaz TBR 105 12.4% 12.4% 1.00 .228 .769
Jake Cronenworth SDP 119 15.1% 15.1% 1.00 .240 .732
Mauricio Dubon HOU 49 10.2% 10.2% 1.00 .233 .678
Jonah Heim TEX 100 17.0% 18.0% 0.94 .229 .746
Alex Bregman HOU 123 8.9% 9.8% 0.92 .336 1.044
Austin Nola SDP 68 16.2% 17.6% 0.92 .250 .707
Austin Hedges CLE 68 14.7% 16.2% 0.91 .180 .604
Tony Kemp OAK 89 9.0% 10.1% 0.89 .288 .815
Rowdy Tellez MIL 99 16.2% 19.2% 0.84 .265 .950
Alejandro Kirk TOR 94 10.6% 12.8% 0.83 .268 .694
Andrew McCutchen MIL 109 12.8% 15.6% 0.82 .234 .809
Aaron Judge NYY 128 19.5% 24.2% 0.81 .333 1.268
Jose Altuve HOU 130 10.0% 12.3% 0.81 .284 .801
Jorge Polanco MIN 96 13.5% 16.7% 0.81 .195 .595

 

Notable Players

So J.P. Crawford just doesn't strike out. Good to know, but not good enough for roto leagues. He is making contact at an insane 92.4% clip in the past 114 plate appearances but it's so weak (84.5 avg. exit velocity) that it doesn't matter. He is hitting .257 on the season and that figure is down to .233 in the second half. The walks are great in deep points leagues but otherwise he can be ignored.

Lars Nootbaar is walking more than anyone not named Juan Soto since the break. But he's doing far more than that, sporting a .399 xwOBA in the second half, good for 14th-best in that span. Even better is a .442 OBP, seventh-best. He has become a five-category contributor, helping out with three HR, 13 RBI, two SB, 20 runs, and a .297 average in the past 100 PA.

In case you missed that last part, he has scored 20 times in the second half. He just went deep on Sunday afternoon, continuing his hot hitting ways. He ought to be rostered in far more than 10% of fantasy leagues by now.

Adley Rutschman is already displaying the type of outstanding plate discipline that made him worthy of the top overall pick in 2019. Rutschman has a walk rate in the 96th percentile as a rookie, contributing in large part to an 84th percentile xwOBA. At some point, he'll need to get more aggressive in order to help fantasy rosters. For now, enjoy the fact we could be seeing the development of the next Buster Posey.

Brendan Donovan is yet another Cardinal with outstanding plate discipline. He has an 88.2% Contact% and 12.7% BB%. Unlike Crawford, he is finding the gaps and hitting for a .297 AVG. There could be negative regression based on a .260 xBA, 52% GB%, and low exit velocity. He's mainly feasting off fastballs, which pitchers are happy to send his way as a non-power bat at the bottom of the order. Donovan is more useful in real-life for his versatility and can likewise be employed at almost any position in fantasy but he profiles more like Luis Arraez than anything.

Sean Murphy would look to be emerging as an offensive threat at the catcher position. But then the A's went ahead and promoted prospect Shea Langeliers to the majors. Funny thing is that it doesn't impact Murphy in any way.

On Sunday, the A's had three catchers in their starting lineup - Murphy at DH, Langeliers behind the plate, and Stephen Vogt at first base. That says a lot about the state of that offense. Murphy shouldn't see any reduction in at-bats down the stretch and may even perform better with less wear-and-tear on defense. Not known to hit for average much, he's batting .277 in the second half and has provided solid power with seven HR, 16 RBI. Don't let Langeliers scare you away from Murphy.

Vinnie Pasquantino has lived up to expectations so far. He has a 49.7% Hard% and 2.6% K-BB% on the year. He's kicked it up a notch in the second half, batting .304 with 10 extra-base hits. The only knock on his profile is the lack of RBI opps due to team context.

Jake Cronenworth has been a dud all season long after an outstanding sophomore campaign. Although he still maintains a very low whiff rate, his expected average is down to .217 this year after posting an xBA of .282 and .323 the previous two years. The culprit seems to be an elevated launch angle of 19.9 that has led to a fly-ball rate increase of 13 points from last season. Fewer line drives are falling in for base hits as a result. Cronenworth remains a patient, contact-oriented hitter, but one whose lack of power is finally catching up to him.

Andrew McCutchen isn't done yet. His season-long 8.9% BB% is the lowest of his career but it's seen an uptick in the second half as his K-rate has consequently fallen. Cutch is also providing power and has scored 19 runs since the break. The speed is gone and he won't help your batting average but there's still enough left in the tank to make this former MVP fantasy-relevant.



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