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Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. This week I will focus on the rate of barrels per batted-ball event a pitcher allows (Brls/BBE %).
Barrels are batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to at least a .500 batting average and a 1.500 slugging percentage. Brls/BBE % tie in several metrics I have looked at previously, such as exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit rate. In general, the higher percent of barrels a pitcher allows, the more likely they are to see unsuccessful outcomes.
It is important to note that pitchers can still allow hard contact without allowing barrels (see the specifications of the definition above). However, at this point in the season, fantasy managers would prefer to see pitchers avoiding barreled batted balls. Every start or sit counts as the fantasy playoffs get ever closer, so let's try to identify some pitchers to trust and some to avoid. As I have done throughout this series, I will not focus on obvious fantasy studs for this article.
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Brls/BBE % Studs
All stats current as of Sunday, August 15, 2021.
German Marquez, Colorado Rockies
(10-9, 3.77 ERA, 4.3% Brls/BBE %)
This first pitcher has been an anomaly in fantasy baseball over the past several seasons in that he has been a successful pitcher who pitches his home games in Coors Field. German Marquez has been solid once again this season, compiling a 3.77 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 25.5% strikeout rate through 24 starts. With the air being so thin in Coors Field, it is paramount that pitchers avoid hard contact in the air. Marquez has managed this with a 4.3% Brls/BBE % that is in the 91st percentile of baseball and is the third-best among qualified pitchers. How has he achieved this success, and should fantasy managers expect it to continue?
As I mentioned at the top of the article, the two main components of barrels are exit velocity and launch angle. Taking a look into this, Marquez has done an above-average job of limiting hard contact. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 63rd and 58th percentiles of baseball, respectively. Further, he has done a nice job of keeping the ball out of the air with a 5.4-degree launch angle. This generally fits the bill for avoiding barrels. Looking deeper, his slider and curveball have been well-located this season and have yielded great results. His fastball has also yielded decent results with a .249 batting average against. However, he has left the pitch in the middle of the plate too often and has a .310 expected batting average and .479 expected slugging percentage with the pitch. These sorts of results could lead to an increase in barrels, but they obviously have not yet caught up to Marquez. The other positive sign here is that Marquez has simply avoided contact in general. His 72.1% contact rate is 10th-lowest in baseball, so he has limited the chances to give up barrels.
Marquez has performed as fantasy managers have come to expect this season, and has even overachieved in some facets. The key is that he has avoided damaging contact and contact in general. His 3.90 SIERA aligns well with his current ERA, which adds validity to his results. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get punished a bit more by his fastball, but there is a large-enough sample size of him beating expectations with the pitch at this point for me to be content with relying on Marquez in most matchups, even at home.
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies
(7-9, 3.93 ERA, 5.5% Brls/BBE %)
This next pitcher is a rotation-mate of Marquez's and has performed well this season. However, he has been highly inconsistent through his career. Jon Gray has had a good season so far in 2021, compiling a 3.93 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 22.6% strikeout rate. He also has a 5.5% Brls/BBE % that is 14th-best among qualifying pitchers. Given his inconsistencies over his career, should fantasy managers trust him down the stretch?
Gray's underlying situation is actually pretty similar to that of Marquez, just not quite as good. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 52rd and 61st percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 7.3-degree launch angle is not as low as Marquez's, but is still solid for pitching his home games in Coors Field. Gray mostly relies on a four-seam fastball (47.1% usage) and a slider (37.9% usage). Like Marquez, his slider has been very effective, as he has pounded the low-outside corner with it for right-handed hitters. Unlike Marquez, his fastball has not been as successful with a .318 batting average against and .485 slugging percentage. However, his .284 expected batting average and .440 expected slugging percentage with the pitch indicate that he has gotten unlucky. Gray's 4.33 SIERA is a bit higher than his ERA, but is still decent for a back-end fantasy starter.
Gray's overall numbers are not as encouraging as Marquez, but he has done a solid job to this point. My concern with Gray is that he has alternated seasons of pitching well and struggling, and it wouldn't surprise me to see inconsistencies throughout the rest of this season. To this point, Gray has actually pitched much better at home this season (3.27 ERA) than on the road (4.56 ERA). All in all, Gray has produced some solid metrics this season, but not everything backs them up. I would be hesitant to trust Gray in tough matchups down the stretch despite his strong Brls/BBE %, but would start him in other matchups.
Brls/BBE % Duds
All stats current as of Sunday, August 15, 2021.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
(8-10, 4.10 ERA, 13% Brls/BBE %)
Tarik Skubal is one of the handful of intriguing young pitchers for the Tigers. The 24-year-old has had varying results this season, but has ultimately put together a respectable 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 25.6% strikeout rate over 21 starts. One stat that has not been so good is his 13% Brls/BBE %, a mark that is the highest among qualifying pitchers. He is currently rostered in 36 percent of leagues, which indicates that some single-season fantasy managers are trusting him and that he is available as a potential streamer. Is Skubal someone fantasy managers could roster to their benefit?
Skubal's underlying metrics paint a pretty straightforward picture in terms of an answer. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom-15 percent of baseball, and his 16.3-degree launch angle is too high for comfort. Combine that with the fact that he allows a fairly high amount of contact at 76.4%, and his Brls/BBE % makes sense. His 4.07 SIERA does suggest that his ERA is in line with his batted-ball profile, but the other underlying metrics make me nervous. Skubal's strikeout rate is pretty decent, but most of his Statcast metrics are towards the bottom of baseball.
Skubal certainly is an interesting pitcher in dynasty and keeper leagues, and the success he has had this season is nice to see for those fantasy managers. However, there are too many warning signs under the hood for me to trust him in single-season leagues with playoff spots on the line. His last two starts have been good, but he has allowed a good amount of hard contact in the air, and his Brls/BBE % reflects that. His SIERA may suggest that his batted-ball profile is ok, but I would be too nervous to put my fantasy future in his hands now.
Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers
(6-6, 3.66 ERA, 10.5 % Brls/BBE %)
Our final pitcher is one of those young, intriguing Tigers pitchers I just mentioned. Casey Mize has spent the season with Skubal in the rotation and has found a good deal of success, posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 19.2% strikeout rate over 22 starts. Like Skubal, however, Mize has allowed a high Brls/BBE % of 10.5%. He is currently just 45% rostered, but has likely provided a good amount of fantasy value for some managers over the course of this season. Should those managers keep their faith in Mize given the number of barrels he has allowed?
Mize's numbers are somewhat similar to Skubal's, but the difference between his realized outcomes and projected outcomes are more concerning than with Skubal. For instance, his batted-ball profile is okay, with an exit velocity in the 52nd percent of baseball, a hard-hit rate in the 29th percent, and a launch angle of 8.2 degrees. This batted-ball profile corresponds to a 4.39 SIERA, which is much higher than Mize's ERA compared to Skubal. Mize also hasn't shown the strikeout potential of Skubal but has given up more contact at 78.9%. Finally, his Statcast profile is almost as bad as Skubal's, which simply does not inspire confidence, despite his peripheral numbers.
In sum, I have probably slightly less confidence in Mize for the rest of this season than I do in Skubal. His underlying metrics are about the same, he does not have the same strikeout numbers, and the fact that he has overachieved all of that makes me think that regression would be harsher to Mize if it were to happen. I do understand that it may be hard for fantasy managers to turn away from Mize if they have relied on him so far this season, but there are too many underlying issues, including allowing barrels and damaging contact, that make me think it is the right decision.
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