EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 3: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

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Last weekend offered much-promised but ended in disappointment. After banking a profit on Saturday from Aston Vila beating Newcastle and Leeds United drawing with Everton, Manchester United failed to beat Southampton on Sunday so all that profit evaporated and we ended up breaking even. It could have been a whole heap better as Manchester United dominated the game but went behind from a deflected shot and missed a multitude of chances, easily enough to have seen us bank a nice couple of winners.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

Total picks: 5-8-2 (-1.05 U)
Match results: 3-3

Saturday, August 28th, 2021

Southampton (+188) at Newcastle United (+157) - 10:00 am ET

Newcastle's looking for their first points of the season after following their opening game 4-2 defeat against West Ham with a 2-0 loss at Aston Villa last week. As we mentioned, Southampton secured a point at home to Manchester United last weekend to get their season up and running.

Both teams had midweek EFL cup fixtures and had mixed fortunes. Playing much-changed sides, Southampton ran out 8-0 winners against lower league Newport County while Newcastle lost on penalties after a 0-0 draw with Burnley.

This fixture produced one of the games of the season last time out with Newcastle prevailing 3-2 despite playing 40 minutes with 10-men. Given Newcastle's newfound desire to play attacking football (especially at home), I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat. I certainly expect goals.

Both team's strength lies in their attacking players and both have strikers capable of scoring goals but they also both have big question marks defensively. Last season, Southampton ranked 19th in goals conceded while Newcastle ranked 16th. Neither team has done much to address that with new personnel. I feel more confident about Southampton's ability to outscore Newcastle so if I had to pick a winner, I'd go with the away side.

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 2 Southampton

Betting Picks:

Both to score/total goals - Yes and over 2.5 (+118) 1 unit
To score 2+ goals - Southampton (+138) 1 unit
Goals & corners - A goal in each half and 3+ corners each half (+125) 1 unit

Leicester City (-105) at Norwich City (+340) - 10:00 am ET

Leicester's 4-1 defeat at West Ham on Monday didn't quite tell the full story. They were unlucky to be reduced to 10-men when one-nil down and they managed to stay in the game late, trailing 2-1 with ten minutes to go before West Ham took advantage of being a man up.

Newly promoted Norwich couldn't have asked for a tougher start to their Premier League return. After losing their opening game to Liverpool 3-0, they were resoundingly beaten by Manchester City last weekend 5-0. They'll want to head into the international break with something to show for their start to the season but it's difficult to make a case for them to get anything here.

Leicester had a much better away record (38 points) than home record (28 points) last season and their only three away defeats came against teams who finished in the top-6. They beat the three newly promoted teams away 2-0, 3-0 and 4-1. Only the two Manchester clubs won more points away from home than Leicester last season.

Norwich did beat Leicester at home 1-0 when they were last in the Premier League two seasons ago, before losing their final ten games of the season and getting relegated with just 21 points. It's hard to tell how much (if at all) better equipped they are this season to avoid relegation because their start has been so difficult. I don't think this game will tell us much either but the early going hasn't really given us much confidence they can pick up a win here.

Score prediction: Norwich City 0 - 3 Leicester City

Betting Picks: