EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 10: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

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We got back to winning ways last weekend. Although we correctly predicted the Burnley and Southampton game would be a draw, only the bookings bet came in. But Crystal Palace and Newcastle made it a break-even Saturday following their 1-1 draw in which both goals came in the second half and Newcastle received the most bookings. Then on Sunday, we swept all the picks in the Manchester United versus Liverpool game with Liverpool running riot en route to a 5-0 win in which Mo Salah scored a hat-trick. That resulted in a 153% ROI for the matchweek.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

Total picks: 38-38-3 (+15.76 U)
Match results: 13-8

Saturday, October 30th, 2021

Brentford (+175) at Burnley (+181) - 10:00 am ET

Burnley comes into this game still searching for their first league win of the season. A 1-1 draw at Southampton last weekend means they have only lost one of their last four EPL games but will need to pick up a win soon if they are to avoid being cut off from the teams above the relegation places. They didn't win a game until matchweek 9 last season and managed to finish 17th but they might be digging themselves into a hole they can't escape from this season.

Newly promoted Brentford has performed above expectations with three wins, three draws and three defeats so far. They come into this week following two straight defeats after losing to Leicester City 2-1 last Sunday. They've built a solid base defensively with no team outside the top-3 having conceded fewer than the nine Brentford have allowed.

At the other end of the pitch, Ivan Toney was expected to be their top scorer and his goals would be the best chance they have of avoiding relegation. Toney has just two goals in nine games so far, while Bryan Mbeumo also has two goals and has scored in both of Brentford's previous away games. He's had 11 shots in four away games so far and his technical and physical abilities might be better suited to away games.

In four away games, Brentford has scored in the first half on three occasions, although they have just one second half goal in those games. The only blank came in their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and if they do get anything from this game, they will likely need to get off to a good start with Burnley in need of a win and probably having to chase the game late if they aren't in front themselves.

One thing Brentford has lacked this season is corners with just 33 total taken ranking 20th in the league. Burnley has had 46 corners, which ranks 10th, of which 29 have been in their four home games with just 17 in five away games. In those home games, Burnley has taken more corners than their opponents in three games with the other being a tie. That's despite being winless so Burnley isn't reliant on winning games to have the most corners in a game.

We'll back the draw although I do think Burnley can pick up their first win. The draw no bet being odds-on doesn't really appeal, however, if it drifts out to +100, I'll bite on it. Burnley should win the corner market even if they don't win the game and we'll add in a higher odds prop bet in the form of Mbeumo scoring.

Score prediction: Burnley 1 - 1 Brentford

Betting Picks:

Moneyline - Draw (+230) 0.5 units
Most corners - Burnley (-132) 1.5 units
Team to score first-half - Brentford (+132) 1 unit
To score anytime - Bryan Mbeumo (+210) 0.5 units

Southampton (+135) at Watford (+228) - 10:00 am ET

Southampton followed up their first win of the season with a 2-2 draw with Burnley last weekend and will look to secure their first away win of the season. Watford scored four goals in the final 15 minutes last weekend to stun Everton 5-2 and pick up their first win under new boss Claudio Ranieri.

The most noticeable pick for this game is the bookings market. The referee appointed for this game is Peter Bankes who has brandished 25 cards in his four EPL games so far, with five yellow cards the fewest he's shown in any game. He's also refereed four cup and championship games this season, showing 18 cards in those.

The one game Bankes refereed featuring either of these teams was Watford's 2-0 defeat against Wolves in which he showed both sides three yellow cards. The two teams have combined for 36 yellow cards in their nine games and there have been a total of 39 in Watford games and 34 in Southampton games.

Another noticeable stat from these two sides is the number of goals they concede in the second half of games. In Watford's four home games, seven of the ten goals they've conceded have come in the second half. While Southampton has conceded just one first half goal in four away games, but allowed in seven in the second half.

In all league games, Watford has scored eight of their twelve goals in the second half and Southampton has scored five of their eight in the second half. It certainly looks like the second half will be the most exciting when these two meet and that's where we will focus some picks on as well.

Score prediction: Watford 2 - 1 Southampton

Betting Picks: