RADIO
After seeing one of our three games chosen get postponed, we managed to eek out a small profit on the weekend. Despite losing to Wolves, Southampton comfortably won more corners and secured us one pick inside the opening 15 minutes. We made a small loss on the Newcastle United versus Watford game even with two of our picks coming in. Watford missed a glorious chance which would've seen us bag a profit on that game too but overall for the matchweek, we finished with a 105.5% ROI.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 77-122-12 (-11.26 units)
- Match results: 24-27
Friday, January 21st, 2022
Norwich City (+265) at Watford (+105) - 3:00 pm ET
The action gets underway on Friday with a relegation six-pointer. Watford comes into this game one point and one place above Norwich City in the coveted 17th place league position. And I'm siding with the away side picking up the three points that will see them get out of the relegation zone for the first time this season.
Norwich ended a six-game losing streak in the league by beating Everton last weekend while Watford grabbed a second-half equalizer at Newcastle United to end their own six-game losing run in the league. I remarked last week whilst watching the games that Watford looks like the most likely team near the bottom of the table to get relegated.
For the majority of their game last week, Watford looked completely disinterested and inept. Newcastle's inability to hold on to leads saw them almost panic and let Watford into the game more than Watford doing anything special to earn a point in the game.
Watford remains the only team without a clean sheet this season but they continue to find goals, scoring seven in their seven-game winless run. In their last 14 league games, their two wins came in bizarre fashion. They beat Manchester United 4-1, which saw Ole Gunnar Solksjaer finally lose his job as a result. And a 5-2 win against Everton in which they scored four goals in the final 15 minutes. Their two draws in that run both came against Newcastle United.
While Norwich doesn't instill me with much confidence and I still believe they will get relegated, I get the impression they will be more prepared for this game and ending their six-game goal drought last week should hold them in good stead coming into this one. They have only scored three away goals in ten games but Watford has conceded 22 goals at home (ten games) and if Norwich could have picked any team to play this week, I'm sure Watford would've been atop their list.
Score prediction: Watford 1 - 2 Norwich City
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Norwich City (+265) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Norwich City (+160) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-134) 1.5 units
Saturday, January 22nd, 2022
Wolves (+163) at Brentford (+203) - 10:00 am ET
Wolves continued their excellent form with a 3-1 win against Southampton last week, taking their tally to ten points from their last four games. Goals had been hard to come by with just three in their previous nine league games and this was just the second time this season they managed to score more than two in a game.
Their 17 goals scored is third-fewest in the league but they have the second-best defensive record with just 15 goals conceded (20 games). And the goal they conceded last week was a contender for the goal of the season. They've allowed in just seven goals in their ten away games so far and I can see them keeping another clean sheet this week.
Brentford lost their third straight league game on Wednesday, going down 3-1 at home to Manchester United. They've conceded ten goals in this three-game losing streak and only four teams have conceded more than the 36 they've now let in.
Goals have been hard to come by too, with eight in their last ten games and they've failed to score in three of their last six games. Wednesday's goal was a late consolation and they've gone six straight games with an xG (expected goals) of less than one.
We'll also play the corners market, something we had success with last week. Brentford is averaging just 3.77 corners a game which is the fewest in the league while Wolves average 4.35 per game. Brentford's had 47 corners in 11 home games (4.27 per game average), while Wolves have had 49 corners in ten away games (4.9 per game average).
Brentford has also taken fewer corners than their opponents in their last three home games and given their recent defensive struggles, I see Wolves being more on the attack and winning more corners than the home team.
Score prediction: Brentford 0 - 2 Wolves
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Wolves (+163) 1 unit
- To win either half - Wolves (-120) 1 unit
- Corners handicap - Wolves -0.5 (+103) 1 unit
Newcastle United (+278) at Leeds United (+101) - 10:00 am ET
Newcastle again managed to avoid winning a game by giving away a lead against Watford and need to start finding ways to win games, something they've done just once this season. They've scored first in ten of their 20 league games this season yet have just one win and nine draws to show for it.
Leeds made it back-to-back wins with an impressive 3-2 victory at West Ham United on Sunday. That also made it consecutive league games in which they've scored three goals and have managed to do so despite a lengthy list of absentees.
The mood around Leeds will be much better than Newcastle and the away team's consistent concessions of goals after taking the lead will play on their minds if they manage to take the lead this week. I'm not sure they will and I think Leeds' pace and energy will be too much for them.
One thing Leeds has really struggled with is defending set-pieces and they conceded a header from a corner again last weekend, their ninth goal conceded from a set-piece this season. The addition of Kieran Trippier by Newcastle gives them a quality option on corners and free-kicks and with Chris Wood, they have a serious aerial threat who also is facing his former club.
I can see Wood opening his account this week, even if it is in a losing effort. He had two headed efforts in his debut last week and Newcastle certainly appeared to look at that as a route to goals so will likely do the same again this week.
We're also going to play the cards market given these are the two most penalized teams in the league. Leeds 54 yellow cards are the most in the league with Newcastle's 51 being second. The referee for this one is scheduled to be Chris Kavanagh who has shown 38 yellow cards and two red cards in nine premier league games.
This has the makings of being a very combative affair and Chris Kavanagh might just exacerbate things. In his last four games in all competitions, he has awarded six penalties and 17 yellow cards. That included Leeds' game with Chelsea when he gave three penalties while showing seven yellow cards.
Newcastle has been shown three yellow cards in four of their last five games and had at least two bookings in eight of their nine away games. Leeds has had two or more bookings in eight of their last nine games and in 17 of their 20 games this season. When these two teams met earlier in the season, both teams were shown two yellow cards. The same outcome looks likely here.
Score prediction: Leeds United 2 - 1 Newcastle United
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Leeds United (+101) 1 unit
- Leeds total goals - Over 1.5 (-125) 1.5 units
- To score a headed goal - Chris Wood (+800) 0.5 units
- A penalty to be taken - Yes (+150) 0.5 units
- Total red cards shown - Over 0.5 (+320) 0.5 units
- Each team total cards - Over 1.5 (-138) 1.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
