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An 11-game Friday rounds out what has been an extremely fun week of basketball. The Pacers beat both the Warriors and Lakers on their west coast road trip, and now Golden State hosts Houston for the third matchup of their seven-game homestand. With Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala already ruled out, the weight Stephen Curry needs to carry tonight increases, but at least he’s not facing an imposing defense.
Additionally, Bryn Forbes will make his Denver debut tonight and the Nuggets are also giving DeMarcus Cousins a 10-day contract try and help the Nuggets bench production. All season, Nikola Jokic has put his team in optimal position to stay competitive and win games, then he needs to come out and everything falls to complete shambles. Cousins and Forbes might not be the perfect fix but, literally, nothing could be worse than what is currently happening.
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OKC @ CHA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) MORE 23.5 Points – Miles Bridges (CHA) MORE 20.5 Points
We’ve seen Miles Bridges go on a similar run earlier this season, where it looked like he would be Charlotte’s go-to guy when it came to scoring and finishing off possessions, but that consistency also ended just as quickly as it began. For right now, this momentum is more the result of Charlotte playing well as a team and simply freeing up their best wing. You’ll notice his percentages haven’t been that good, so in all honesty, it’s surprising to see him here over someone like Terry Rozier or LaMelo Ball. With his current five-game trend of taking nearly 20 shots each game, most of his attempts tonight will be easy buckets around the rim.
If the Thunder can keep the game close or somehow win, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will easily score 20-25 points against any defense. However, getting blown out by the Spurs really takes all that confidence you have in betting on any Thunder player and throws it out the window. The last time the Thunder beat Charlotte and Gilgeous-Alexander scored 24 points, Al Horford and George Hill were both playing for Oklahoma City and the Hornets were starting Bismack Biyombo and giving Caleb Martin and LaMelo Ball equal minutes. Given my assumption that the Hornets will win handily and Gilgeous-Alexander won’t get the chance to score 24 points, Shai is going to score 25 his first shift and the Thunder will be down 30 by halftime.
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MIA @ ATL
Trae Young (ATL) UNDER 28.5 Points – Jimmy Butler (MIA) UNDER 21.5 Points
It’s not clear whether or not Clint Capela will be playing, but either way, the Heat are nearly at full strength, and at the very least, their best defenders are healthy. Guards have been struggling against Miami’s backcourt all season and even though this is Trae Young, isolating him on defense makes it nearly impossible for him to get any offense going. There’s no doubt he will make some shots, but this is something the Heat have done all season to opposing guards and it’s was extremely effective when they were missing Bam Adebayo to help clog the paint. Young will get shots and he is one of the few guards to score over 20 points against this backcourt, but you can bet he’s the one dreading this matchup, not the Heat.
Without any key defensive playmakers outside of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, the Hawks are left with just DeAndre Hunter to guard Jimmy Butler. Hunter is easily the Hawks best option for this task, but that doesn’t really mean much with how Butler plays. No Tyler Herro means Miami needs to put an emphasis on their starters scoring, but we’ve seen the opposite of that from Butler. He might have increased his assist production, and the only thing promising about his recent games is that the last time he scored over 21 points was against the Hawks. Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro were also available that game, and surprisingly both being out doesn’t help his case.
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CHI @ MIL
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL) MORE 30.5 Points – DeMar DeRozan (CHI) MORE 26.5 Points
The Bulls had everything going for them. Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan were both playing well, their non-existent power forward problem wasn’t game-changing most nights, and their bench production was doing more than enough to keep their starters fresh when the minutes piled up. Then an outbreak happened and the Bulls are just now starting to recover from when the NBA was half made of up of G-League players and no less than 20% was out due to COVID alone. The Bulls starting lineup is rough, but lately those players have been playing well despite some inconsistencies. This just means that their offense is more predictable than ever, so although this is where someone like me would indulge in DeRozan’s assists overs, don’t listen to me, take the points.
Sadly, Chicago’s defense is going to have their hands full dealing with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Add in Khris Middleton playing well and there’s only so much offense the Bulls can muster up to try and compete with the Bucks tandem. Since Antetokounmpo can basically run as a center, Middleton utilizes him as such and usually when one’s points total increases, the other’s stats see a benefit as well. The only downside here is that this is the first night of a back-to-back, but even then, if there was a bet for Giannis to have two 30-point games on two consecutive nights, it’s almost a given.
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MEM @ DEN
Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 27.5 Points – Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5 Points
This is the game to watch tonight. Nothing against Steven Adams, and how can you not like that guy, but this is not a good matchup for him. Nikola Jokic, historically, has extremely productive games in this type of matchup and he’s only gotten better since they’ve last played. It’s also surprising that Ja Morant’s point total is higher than Jokic’ given how the latter is averaging 30 points per game over the last week compared to the former’s 25 points per game. Even then, neither team is bringing enough defense to the table for these specific matchups and it’s going to be of production-bonanza.
Not that two players posting triple-doubles in the same game is all that interesting, but when it comes to betting, that type of upside in a high-scoring matchup works in more facets than just MonkeyKnifeFight betting. DFS, prop betting, point totals, everything. The upside is maximized when these two teams play and the Nuggets playing Bryn Forbes only increases the amount of potential this game has. With the Nuggets desperate for backcourt support, Forbes is one of those few players that has made his career off of turning a zero-point outing into a 15-point night in a matter of minutes.
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