RADIO
We can't sugarcoat it in any possible way: it's been a rather slow start to the 2022 calendar year when it comes to UFC events. Yes, we got UFC 270 and another event in Vegas prior to that, but we were coming off a month-long hiatus and we have now waited two weeks instead of one to have top-tier MMA back in our schedules. But here it is, and it is here to stay. There are eight consecutive weeks with a UFC event on tap including the next two numbered ones in UFC 271 and UFC 272 until we go into another two-week break after March 26.
Get ready, because there are tons of fights coming our way, folks. And we're starting this weekend in Vegas with the main card headlined by Hermansson and Strickland, both top-7 Middlewighters vying for an eventual shot at Israel Adesanya down the road--because no, Adesanya is just not dropping the belt. Throw a bunch of up-and-comers into the mix, and we're in for a nice appetizer to what will come during the next couple of months. Let's get it popping!
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 47: Hermansson vs. Strickland on 02/05/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Sean Strickland, $8800 - vs. Jack Hermansson
With Hermansson sitting as the sixth- and Strickland as the seventh-best man in the MW division, this is a huge battle between the two contenders. Only Derek Brunson sits between these two and Adesanya when it comes to fighters without a title fight against the current champ, so whoever gets the W this weekend is probably just one step away from fighting for the gold. Hermansson is a 9-3 UFC fighter doing it since 2016, while Strickland boasts an 11-3 since his debut in 2014.
All that said, the fighting profiles are quite different. Strickland has won five in a row including four in the past 14 months finishing one of those last four opponents (second-round KO). Hermansson is 6-1 from 2018 though the's only put on 16:18 minutes of fighting time in the past 18 months compared to Strickland's 61+ minutes. Not calling Hermansson rusty, but still. Also, Strickland ( is a volume-beast compared to Hermansson and his quick-finishing prowess (he's gone to a decision just three times in 12 fights). Strickland has never gotten submitted and three-plus years for Hermansson without KO'ing an opponent. I'd bet on a 25-minute fight here, and in that case, I'd side with Strickland because of his SSA volume and not-horrid TD numbers.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Nick Maximov, $7600 - vs. Punahele Soriano
It's hard to kick a career off better than Punahele Soriano did after signing with the UFC and debuting back in Dec. 2019: two fights, two wins, two KOs, just eight minutes inside the octagon, and never more than 4:48 in a single fight. Jeez. Soriano, though, ate an L his third time out against Brendan Allen last July dropping a decision and sitting now at a good-not-great 2-1 that could have looked marvelous had he defeated BA. Nick Maximov is just a freshman doing it for the second time in the UFC after debuting with a W last September. The numbers say it all: 40 SSA in a 15-minute decision victory... to go with 15 (!) TD attempted, 4 TD landed, and a couple of reversals to bulk that fantasy score.
You get the idea. Punahele is going for the killer hit while Maximov is about them grappling/takedown moves all day every day. Whether one of those strategies works for them this weekend is still to be seen, but the contrast in styles is more than obvious here. If Soriano can hit Maximov square, it could very well be over for the latter. If Maximov can bring the fight to the mat, well, Soriano might be in for a long and tough bout here. The truth is, removing bonus DKFP for early victories, both Soriano and Maximov have averaged pretty much the same FP per fight so far in their careers--scores in the 33-to-44 clip. I'd go Maximov and his sky-high ceiling if he can land a bunch of takedowns while dodging KO-inducing strikes from Soriano, making this a 15-minute fight in which he should get his second UFC victory while relegating Punahele to an even 2-2 record in the promo.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Shavkat Rakhmonov, $9000 - vs. Carlston Harris
Brothers and sisters, salute the magnificent Carlston Harris because though the sample is tiny (two fights) he's put the UFC on DEFCON-1 notice since debuting last May. Harris submitted his first opponent in just 2:52 minutes without landing any of his three attempted takedowns, and he then proceeded to KO his second foe four months later with a 2:38 first-round KO landing 24-of-46 SSA. His average DKFP tally is currently at 102.3 and that has Harris in the 98th percentile of fantasy UFC fighters--active and retired.
Only... wait a second, is that Shavkat Rakhmonov right there on the other corner? Uh, oh, this fight. If you love Harris you'd do Rakhmonov too. The Kazakhstani is also 2-0 in his short UFC tenure having debuted in Oct. 2020. The results? Easy subs to the tune of a first-round one in his debut followed by his second in just 7:10 eight months later and the last time we saw him doing it inside an Octagon. Just for context, he's a 96th-percentile fighter nearly at the level of Harris on that front (91 DKFP per fight so far adorn Rahmonov's resume). This is a freaking loaded bout and a goddam tossup if you ask me. Harris has a massive edge in experience, yes, but Shavkat is only 27 years of age and already a perfect 14-0 pro-MMA fighter... who has finished all 14 of his foes, 7 via KO + 7 via submission. Whether Rakhmonov ends fulfilling his potential is yet to be seen, but it can't get much better (if at all) than it has already gone. Jesus Christ.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Steven Peterson, $7000 - vs. Julian Erosa
Erosa won and lost and everything in between before officially debuting in the UFC back in March 2016... only to drop that one to Teruto Ishihara lasting barely five minutes before getting rocked. After that, Erosa went on a rebuilding path in which he took two years and a half to convince Dana of his worth and a second shot in the UFC, one that came to happen in 2018. Since then, Erosa is 3-4 in the promo but he's gotten things more right than wrong of late with a 3-1 since Jun. 2020 winning those three via either submission (x2) or KO (once).
Peterson's path was different in the storyline but similar in results: three consecutive losses in his first three fights only to rebound in his last two scoring himself a KO and a decision victory. Truth be told, though, Peterson was much better than Erosa in his losses, throwing stunning amounts of SSA and also getting to a total of 7-of-20 landed takedowns in his three Ls. Interestingly enough, he only attempted (and landed) one combined TD in his two victories. Erosa has always been prone to getting KO'd (four times in his UFC career) while Peterson has gone to a decision four of his five times inside an Octagon. If I had to guess, I'd say this is going the distance. And in that case, I'd bet on Peterson getting the bigger DKFP bounty and ultimately the victory given he's as good at grappling as Erosa and that will limit the upside to get an early finish via sub. from the latter.
