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Howdy, RotoBallers! I hope you're ready to take chances, make mistakes, and get messy. We’re here to dig a little deeper into the draft room and look for players that would be wise to take a flier on in the late rounds. As of now, hope for the best in terms of baseball being played but the experience may be a middle road between 2020's 60-game season and 2021's full slate.
It can be a little difficult to differentiate "sleeper" from "flier", and there's likely to be some crossover throughout the industry. There's also the fact that since we consider these late-round types as potential high-performers, they could qualify as another's "sleeper." That's business, baby.
For today’s purposes, we’ll start the exercise with a minimum ADP of ~225 according to NFBC data from Feb. 1 to March 24.
Late-Round Fliers - Hitters
Catcher: Danny Jansen (C22, TOR) – ADP 312
Everyone wants Alejandro Kirk’s potent bat to be a thing, but Jansen is still the 1A catcher to target in Toronto’s powerful offense. We thought he was due for the bench after poor hitting in 2019, 2020, and the start of ‘21. Jansen is a strong defender but was certainly on the ropes for playing time by the time he returned from a second IL stint in late 2021 (pesky hamstrings!). Here’s the thing: Jansen was really good in September as Toronto’s primary catcher.
Jansen returned on August 31 and went 19-for-59 with a whopping 14 extra-base hits (eight doubles, six homers) while only striking out nine times. This 21-game window yielded a .322/.385/.763 slash line. When someone hits that well in a lineup as stacked as Toronto’s, they’ll likely also pick up big R+RBI tallies. Well, Jansen indeed had 34 R+RBI in those 21 games. This kind of upside is a perfect late-round flier at a position most give up on after the top names are gone. I'll also tie in this tweet from Mike Kurland regarding his success against high fastballs, with it also serving as a cheap way to get Seth Brown in our mix:
Among hitters who had at least 20 PA against Fastballs across the top of the zone - zones 1/2/3 (398 players qualified), #Athletics Seth Brown had the highest:
BA: .469
SLG: 1.313
wOBA: .703Second highest
OBP: .471 - Vlad Jr. was 1st: .475
ISO: .844 - Danny Jansen was 1st: .920 pic.twitter.com/ity6EOl3PB— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) January 7, 2022
First Base: Christian Walker (1B39, ARI) – ADP 400 / LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B32, SF) - ADP 304
Walker had looked like a suitable heir to Paul Goldschmidt’s first base job in Arizona with a .825 OPS, 29 home runs and eight steals across 2019 but disappointed at the dish in 2021. Part of that was an oblique injury that led to two different IL stints and slipped him into a funk for the season. He cited the injury as a likely catalyst for some unknown mechanics shift as his body looked to compensate for the oblique.
We wound up with an ugly .696 OPS and just 10 long balls with zero steal attempts in 445 PAs, which underscores the notion that he was searching for answers at the plate. Walker did show improved life in the second half, hitting 14 doubles and six homers over 204 PAs with a .768 OPS compared to .620 from the first half. With an offseason to smooth out his mechanics and regain that 2019 form, Walker could easily be a big profit margin as a widely-undrafted player.
Second Base: Michael Chavis (2B54, PIT) - ADP 531
Chavis’ opportunity with the Red Sox had petered out but the 2021 trade deadline saw him reunite with Boston’s old GM, Ben Cherington, in Pittsburgh. He’d had an intriguing 2019, slugging 18 home runs in just 382 PAs while showcasing his defensive versatility across the diamond, but a sprained AC joint in his shoulder ended that campaign in August and 2020 yielded a horrid .636 OPS over just 158 PAs.
The trade to a Pittsburgh team with few positions spoken for gave Chavis a chance to rebuild his confidence, as he went 15-for-42 (.357) with four XBH sprinkled in. It’s not much to go off, but that’s why he’s in this article. Chavis would also benefit from the designated hitter avenue to play alongside his competency at 1B, 2B, 3B, and the corner OF slots.
Third Base: Alec Bohm (3B23, PHI) - ADP 286 / Mike Moustakas (3B28, CIN) - ADP 333
Bohm fits the post-hype sleeper mold well and has a strong track record to fall back on, it's just a case of whether he becomes Michael Brantley with a line-drive stroke or learns to tap into more fly balls. We shall see, but the latter could mean fireworks and Brantley was good in his prime!
Meanwhile, Moustakas has battled through foot injuries in his thirties but all too recently clobbered 35 home runs in 584 PAs for Milwaukee in 2019. While it’s easy to look at the paltry .653 OPS of 2021 and assume the downward spiral is on, the designated hitter likely coming to the National League gives Moose a path to at-bats with lower stress on the body. There is nothing terribly statistical or analytical to bite into here. This is a simple gamble on health where the cost is a roster spot and the upside is 30-plus HRs.
Shortstop: Gavin Lux (SS28, LAD) - ADP 234
Lux was a one-man hype train back in 2019 thanks to a 1.197 OPS in 232 Triple-A PAs as a 21-year-old phenom. His late arrival at Spring Training in 2020 resulted in his timing on both offense and defense never clicking, seeing him sent to the alternate training site to open the abbreviated year. He joined the Dodgers in August but failed to make an impact. If he entered 2021 as a post-hype sleeper then is he a double-post-hype sleeper now?
Yes, his .242/.328/.364 slash from 381 PAs last year doesn’t inspire confidence, but he’s only 24 and finds himself on what’ll surely be a high-scoring offense. The 2016 first-round pick has the tools to go 20/10/.280 (and as that Triple-A spike showed, perhaps even more) if he can find his groove. I’m unsure even the prospect of a DH slot would have him face left-handed pitching much (18-for-107 last year, .168 AVG) as Zach McKinstry and Edwin Rios offer utility bats, but Lux has the upside worth a chase.
Top 2B in Terms of 90th% Exit Velo:
1. Ketel Marte - 107.3
2. Javier Baez - 107.1
3. Jonathan Schoop - 107.0
4. Max Muncy - 106.8
5. Jazz Chisholm - 106.0
6. Brandon Lowe - 105.9
7. Trea Turner - 105.7
8. Brendan Rodgers - 105.4
9. Jean Segura - 105.3
10. Gavin Lux - 104.9 pic.twitter.com/w1udUFMdMF— Justin Johnson (@JJ_Stats) January 5, 2022
Outfield: Mike Yastrzemski (OF78, SF) - ADP: 291
Yastrzemski entered 2021 having produced a .281/.357/.535 slash line with 31 homers, 103 runs, and 90 RBI in 636 plate appearances (161 games). Imagine getting that line here with a full season’s worth of work? The 31-year-old slogged through some bad batted-ball luck in ‘21 though, popping 25 home runs in 532 PAs but only hitting .224 thanks to a paltry .254 BABIP. Even with that baked in, his career BABIP is still .301 and I expect some regression there.
Some of that is tied to a fly-ball rate of 47%, up from 43% in 2019-20, but a .254 BABIP is still too low to expect moving forward. If Yaz can get back towards .260 with the 25-30 HRs in the last round of drafts to round out a five-man OF then I’d be thrilled.
Outfield: Clint Frazier (OF111, CHC) – ADP 400
I nearly went with Connor Joe here as his potential at being Colorado’s regular leadoff man is worth a lot, but his fantasy-relevant tools are lacking compared to someone like Frazier. The former Yankee was displeased with how he handled his post-concussion syndrome, something that I suffered with for nearly a year back in high school. Rest assured, it is crummy. Frazier appeared on a podcast this offseason and detailed his battle with neurological symptoms following a September 2020 wall collision and said he didn’t report them to the Yankees. This came after his issues with depth perception in 2019 due to a 2018 concussion suffered in spring training.
Essentially, we have only seen a healthy Frazier at work for a portion of the shortened 2020 season. His overall 160 plate appearances that year yielded eight homers, three steals, and a .267/.394/.511 slash line. Heck, he was hitting over .300 before ending on a 1-for-20 skid. The point here is that if Frazier is feeling 100% entering camp then his ability should easily win a starting role and could give us 20-plus homers with 5-8 steals and a solid average.
Outfield: Bradley Zimmer (OF115, CLE) – ADP 428
So you want a late pick with even more upside? Fine, let’s go to Cleveland see if Zimmer can put it together in 2022. He’s been derailed by injuries and plate discipline but we got 348 plate appearances out of him in ‘21 and saw eight home runs alongside 15 steals. Sure, he hit .227 and had a 35.1% strikeout rate but Cleveland doesn’t offer much competition and a hot start could let to a Cedric Mullins-esque breakout with power and speed on the table.
His 2021 max exit velocity of 113.9 mph was inside the top 10% of hitters while the 90.7 mph average exit velo was the best mark of his career. The breakout hinges on how he handles breaking pitches, which we’ll get a good sense for early. At the end of the day, his tools give him intrigue so long as he gets an opportunity to play. Mix that with being a left-handed bat in Cleveland, where he has a career .149 ISO compared to .096 on the road thanks to that park, and I’m in for the $0.01 cost.
Bradley Zimmer's quality of contact is SO good. He just needs to make more contact! 90th Percentile EV is better than Juan Soto, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Joey Gallo, and other sluggers. pic.twitter.com/rJ0N5GkdWk
— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) January 9, 2022
Late-Round Fliers - Pitchers
Starting Pitcher: Josiah Gray (P110, WAS) – ADP 286
Us savvy 2022 drafters will enjoy a discount on Gray because of poor surface stats as a rookie, with the 5.48 ERA/1.36 WHIP rooted in a problem with the long ball. In his 13 starts, he served up 19 home runs, but he’d surrender only two in his final four outings. We still wound up with five quality starts out of Gray despite a midseason trade, with his high point being a 10-strikeout showing against the eventual champions in Atlanta.
We missed a year of development out of Gray thanks to 2020’s shenanigans, but he posted 22 strikeouts against just two walks across 15 ⅔ IP at Triple-A for the Dodgers. At the lower levels prior to ‘21, Gray never posted a walk rate north of 8.5% and while he was a fly-ball pitcher, he rarely gave up home runs. That changes as you progress to the majors and hitters turn more flies into longer ones, but I am intrigued enough by a 24-year-old with four offerings and a strong prospect background. Out of 164 starters with at least 60 IP in 2021, Gray’s 13.9% swinging-strike rate was 18th-best. If he can command the zone more then we could see quite the leap!
Starting Pitcher: Tylor Megill (P119, NYM) – ADP 308
Megill offers sneaky strikeouts in a pitcher-friendly park, but even Citi Field couldn’t save him from an overall 1.91 HR/9 in 2021. We start with the good, as Megill posted a 3.92 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA underneath the 4.52 ERA in 89 ⅔ IP. The 26-year-old leaned on a mid-90s fastball over half of the time, mixing in a slider and changeup at about 20% usage each, with a rarely-used curveball in his back pocket. Per BrooksBaseball, all four of those pitches registered a whiff-per-swing rate of 20% or greater. Not a bad arsenal.
Megill had an impressive 59 K’s in 40 ⅓ IP in the minors prior to his promotion, where he tallied another 99 strikeouts. The total workload of 130 IP means reaching the 170-180 range in 2022 is well within reach, and that means 200 K’s is on the table too. The questions arise when considering the Mets’ rotation plans and how they’ll juggle arms to protect Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco types. Even if we only get 140-150 frames from Megill, I want a piece of the rookie who waltzed into Yankee Stadium and gave us 10 K’s in seven frames.
And when it comes to the home run woes, I will say that he only had four games out of 18 outings where he gave up multiple HRs. And the worst of them all was a four-homer barrage by San Francisco, who Megill had held to one run over six dynamite innings in his previous start. Giving the Giants’ hitters a second look at Megill so quickly makes for a volatile game. I’m optimistic here.
Starters with an F-Strike rate over 62% and Put-Away rate over 45%:
Julio Urias
Gerrit Cole
Aaron Nola
Zack WheelerIf you want to round up a Put-Away rate of 44.6% to 45% one more pitcher is added:
Tylor Megill pic.twitter.com/IXQ3vELM1A
— Michael Simione (@SPStreamer) January 18, 2022
Relief Pitchers:
Anthony Bender (P141, MIA) – ADP 366
Anthony Bender may be behind Dylan Floro on Miami’s closer chart, but Bender is No. 1 in my heart and nearly No. 1 on the reliever CSW% leaderboard. The former means more to me but the latter likely is more relevant to you. Bender’s 35.2% CSW rate was seventh-best out of 344 pitchers with at least 20 relief frames in 2021. We all want saves and while they may not come in spades for Bender, Floro is a 31-year-old reliever who had a 3.95 xFIP and 3.93 SIERA behind last season’s 2.81 ERA. It is not an open-and-shut case, and Floro could also be flipped midseason if Miami isn’t contending. There are many avenues for Bender to ascend and his skills make him a top-10 option should he get the chance.
Robert Suarez (P149, SD) - ADP 387
Then there’s Robert Suarez, who steps into a Padres bullpen with no clear frontrunner for closing duties. Roster Resource lists Pierce Johnson as the 1A option but why can’t it be Suarez? The 30-year-old was a strong closer in the Mexican League back in 2015 and just served as the Hanshin Tigers’ closer in 2020 and ‘21, racking up 67 saves with a 108/33 K/BB in those 114 ⅔ IP. You mathheads will notice that’s less than a strikeout per inning in Japan, which means expectations must be tempered for MLB competition. But if the strong control can hold up then we should get plus ratios and a crack at the ninth when half of the draft room is scrambling for a name that looks familiar.
Jorge Alcala (P152, MIN) - ADP 393
Jorge Alcala took steps forward in 2021 by adding a changeup and sinker to his fastball-slider repertoire, giving the fireballer four legitimate pitches that help him handle left- and right-handed bats. His heat can touch 100 mph and while the overall 3.92 ERA/0.97 WHIP looks solid, it gets even glitzier when you hone in on the second half. Alcala’s final 21 appearances yielded this line: 23 ⅔ IP, 5 ER, and 27/3 K/BB. The 1.90 ERA and 0.76 WHIP with a 31.4% strikeout rate were a delight, with his 1.94 FIP in that span popping up as sixth-best between Raisel Iglesias (1.77) and Liam Hendriks (2.02). Good company!
