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Welcome back RotoBallers to my ongoing series about NFBC late-round targets - today, we take a look at outfielders. We are in February and that means Fantasy Baseball draft season is ramping up in hopes of a resolution to the lockout.
In previous years, many players would participate in mock drafts to get their feel for the player pool; in recent years, that has changed with Best Ball and Draft and Hold drafts (DnH). Things have also changed quite a bit with the growth of the NFBC platform. The NFBC runs some of the best contests for fantasy baseball players and has different price points for your average fans and higher stake players.
The beauty of the best ball and DnH drafts is no weekly FAAB/waiver wire process. The main difference between the two formats is that the best ball is just drafting and walking away while DnH is still drafting but still setting your weekly lineups. They are similar to mock drafts; there is not much left to do after the draft, but a little skin in the game keeps the players drafting focused and on the up and up.
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NFBC Draft and Hold Strategy
For the next few weeks leading up to the season, I will be writing a series of articles looking for draft values. For this time of the year, I will be focusing on DnH leagues, and I will go over some later-round targets at each position. In the NFBC, there are NFBC 50’s, which are 12-team leagues, and Draft Champions (DC), which are 15-team leagues. The ADP used in these articles will be for the DC’s. You can find the ADP for all formats on the NFBC website.
The outfield position is very deep, but that does not mean you should wait on the position. You will also need to roster five outfielders each week, and most teams will want to leave with nine or 10 outfielders rostered by the end of your draft. There will still be a significant need for later-round options by needing so many outfielders. There are quite a few, so I will highlight some of my main targets, but there are more to go around if need be. Suppose you are curious about more, feel free to ask away.
Some of these later-round values are boring veterans that will play nearly every day. At-bats are kind and are harder and harder to find later in drafts. Some of these targets are players looking to bounce back or strong side platoon players that should get you the stats you need as a deep value. Some values will also be young players who do not have a role with the team yet but could be an excellent late-season addition to your team by the season’s end. Let’s look at some of the late-round outfield values I target in DnH drafts.
Tyrone Taylor, Milwaukee Brewers
NFBC ADP: 402
Taylor has showcased an excellent power and speed combination throughout the minors and even during his short time in the major leagues. Last season, he received his most playing time in 93 games, suitable for 271 plate appearances. Over those 93 games, he hit 12 home runs and stole six bases to go with a .247 average—solid numbers for Taylor in his first extended stint in the bigs.
He heads into the 2022 season with higher expectations. The Brewers should utilize Taylor in the DH role and starts in the outfield as Lorenzo Cain is not likely to stay healthy all season. The ATC projections have Taylor playing 103 games, racking up 383 plate appearances with 15 home runs and six stolen bases. That brings a nice floor with the potential for even more playing time, bringing Taylor closer to 20 home runs and sneaking towards 10 stolen bases. He makes for a good depth outfield piece with plenty of upside in your DnH leagues.
Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins
NFBC ADP: 452
Cooper's 2021 season was cut short due to a sprained left elbow which required surgery. Before the injury, Cooper had hit nine home runs while hitting .284 over 71 games (250 plate appearances). Cooper also improved his walk rate to 12%, which is the best of his career. In addition, Cooper hit 15 home runs in 2019 and has hit at least .280 in each of the last three seasons. As a result, there has always been hope of big fantasy production from Cooper.
The tweet above shows Cooper is already back in the cage and ready to roll for the 2022 season. Recovery time for the surgery was estimated at three to four months, so Cooper is on schedule. Roster Resource has Cooper platooning between the outfield, first base, and DH. Even if he platoons, which I do not think he will do a ton, he will still play plenty at all of those positions. That will also lead to excellent positional flexibility. He should play well over 100 games, and I am leaning towards 130 games. The ATC projections have Cooper playing in 106 games and hitting 15 home runs. That is still a decent floor, but I am projecting more. Cooper is a big-time target in DnH formats and even as a late-round dart in 15-team redraft leagues.
Anthony Alford, Pittsburgh Pirates
NFBC ADP: 464
Alford has been a trendy name in the DnH streets this early draft season. Of course, it helps that Alford is projected to start every day for the Pirates and should hit in the middle of the order. Last season, in 49 games with the Pirates, Alford hit five home runs and stole five bases while hitting .233. The power and speed showcased in his small sample leave fantasy managers quite intrigued.
There are other reasons for intrigue since Alford has showcased a little power but a lot of speed in the minors. From 2015 to 2019, Alford had stolen at least 17 bases each season, and last season between Triple-A and the Pirates, he stole 14 bases to go with 19 home runs. If Alford can play every day and hit for some average, which has been a problem, he could be an excellent late-round pick. The ATC projections have Alford playing 101 games and hitting 12 home runs while stealing 12 bases while only hitting .225. There is a ton of upside with a lot of risk with Alford.
Harold Ramirez, Chicago Cubs
NFBC ADP: 478
Ramirez had an enjoyable 2021 season with Cleveland. He played off and on until mid-August, then he suffered a hamstring injury before playing sporadically in September. All in all, Ramirez played in 99 games where he hit seven home runs, stole three bases, and hit .268. The overall production does not jump off the page, but a deeper dive makes things look even more intriguing for Ramirez.
Last year, Ramirez saw his barrel rate improve to 6.3%, with a career-best maxEV of 114.8 mph and a career-best hard-hit rate of 46.9%. Ramirez showed glimmers of significant production, but it did not all pan out. 2022 could be the time for Ramirez to shine. He is now a member of the Cubs and looks to platoon with Jason Heyward, but that could always change as Heyward continues to regress. If Ramirez could walk into regular playing time, he would become a steal at his current ADP, making for a great DnH value.
Josh Naylor, Cleveland Guardians
NFBC ADP: 562
Naylor was in the midst of an excellent 2021 season before a nasty on-field accident led to a fractured ankle and the end of his season. At the injury, he had played in 69 games, where he hit seven home runs with a .253 average. The production was in line with a career-best 7.4% barrel rate and 41.8% hard-hit rate. The once-heralded prospect was beginning to show signs of fantasy goodness, but we would have to wait a little longer.
Early reports say Naylor is progressing nicely through his rehab and should be ready by early spring training. If Naylor returns healthy and can reassert himself into the Guardians' lineup, he becomes a steal at this draft price. There are still a lot of health concerns, which is leading to the deflated ADP, but I am willing to gamble. He will be outfield-eligible and will likely gain first base eligibility. Do not be scared to draft Naylor as one of your last outfielders in your DnH drafts.
Stephen Piscotty, Oakland Athletics
NFBC ADP: 662
Sure, a lot can change with the A's as they are selling everyone, and Piscotty is one of the elder statesmen on the team, but his ADP is head-scratching to me. In 72 games last year, he hit five home runs while hitting .220. That is not great, but he is still projected to be the starting right fielder for the A's and will likely hit in the middle of the batting order. The projections have him playing 114 games and hitting 13 home runs. That seems to be the low side of his production. If Piscotty plays nearly every day, he becomes a massive draft value. Sure there is a risk, but Piscotty is one of my favorite late outfielders to target in drafts.
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