RADIO
We're back after a short hiatus due to the PL taking a short break followed by the FA Cup Fourth Round ties at the weekend. We also have a shortened matchweek with just nine games on due to Chelsea's participation in the World Club Championship. But there's still some intriguing games to get through. Back in matchweek 23, we made nice gains in the Norwich City at Watford and Wolves at Brentford games. But gave it all back with Newcastle United earning a surprise win at Leeds United, leaving us with a break-even week.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 82-129-12 (-11.29 units)
- Match results: 26-28
Tuesday, February 08th, 2022
Everton (+178) at Newcastle United (+168) - 2:45 pm ET
New Everton manager Frank Lampard got off to a winning start in the FA Cup against Brentford, winning 4-1. That was without new signings Dele Alli and Donny van de Beek, both not featuring at all. Newcastle haven't played since their surprise 1-0 away win at Leeds over two weeks ago.
The gloom around Everton was lifted when they sacked Rafael Benitez. They showed what they are capable of on Saturday and I expect that "feel-good feeling" to continue into midweek. Lampard should bring an attacking element to Everton and their transfer window dealings do suggest that is an area of focus.
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last three league games and haven't conceded more than once in those three games. A win on Tuesday would leave them just a point behind Everton. They invested heavily in January and looked to strengthen a defense that has conceded 43 goals in 21 games.
Normally, it's quicker to get your attacking changes to work out better than defensively which is what I'm banking on here. Newcastle are slowly improving and I do feel they'll avoid relegation so we'll not go too heavy with this game but just look to set us up for the remainder of the week.
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 - 2 Everton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Everton (+168) 0.5 units
- Draw no bet - Everton (-105) 1 unit
- Total team goals - Everton over 1.5 goals (+140) 0.5 units
- Team to score 2nd half - Everton (-135) 1 unit
- Everton highest-scoring half? - 2nd half - (+160) 0.5 units
Wednesday, February 09th, 2022
Crystal Palace (+119) at Norwich City (+250) - 2:45 pm ET
Norwich comes into this game on the back of two straight league wins, which has seen them get out of the relegation zone for the first time this season. Their last league win was a comprehensive 3-0 victory against Watford, a win we actually predicted. They also advanced to the FA Cup Fifth Round on Saturday with a 1-0 win against Wolves.
Earlier in the season, Norwich also had back-to-back league wins which were then followed by two draws and I see a similar scenario playing out here. Norwich are the league's lowest scorers with just 13 goals in 22 games and just seven goals in 11 home games. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace are in between a top half push and being dragged into a relegation battle.
Crystal Palace have drawn nine of their 22 league games this season and their only away win this season came at top of the table Manchester City, a 2-0 win which is also their only away clean sheet on the season. They've drawn four of their other nine away games. The five away defeats all saw Crystal Palace fail to score and when they have scored in an away game, they've got at least a point.
Norwich's home struggles can be attributed to their dire second-half performances. In 11 home games, they have only scored twice after the interval and conceded 13 goals. But they have only trailed at the break on three occasions in their home games.
In their ten away games, Crystal Palace only have four first-half goals and six in the second-half of those games. This game feels like it'll be a draw and we'll also have a small nibble on some long odds of the game following the pattern of Norwich starting well but failing to hold on to a lead.
Score prediction: Norwich City 1 - 1 Crystal Palace
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Draw (+245) 1 unit
- Both teams to score - Yes (-110) 1 unit
- Half-time/Full-time - Norwich City/Draw (+1400) 0.5 units
Southampton (+475) at Tottenham (-160) - 2:45 pm ET
Both teams come into this game on the back of FA Cup wins at the weekend, with Southampton needing extra time to see off Championship side Coventry City while Tottenham dispatched Brighton 3-1. When these two teams met back in December, it ended in a 1-1 draw but I don't expect a similar result here.
Tottenham have been in good form recently when not playing Chelsea, who have accounted for all three of their losses since December 01st in all competitions. Their upturn in form has been in part due to Harry Kane finding his scoring boots again, with four goals in his last six league games and he bagged a brace on Saturday.
Kane has had plenty of success against Southampton throughout his career with 11 goals and six assists in 13 EPL games. Southampton's defensive struggles away from home also leads me towards backing Kane finding the net again on Wednesday.
In 11 away games, Southampton have conceded 24 goals (second-most) and in nine of those games, have conceded two or more. The other two away games saw Southampton keep a clean sheet. The odds suggest Tottenham will win and should have no problem scoring two or more in doing so.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2 - 0 Southampton
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Tottenham (-160) 1.5 units
- Team total goals - Tottenham over 1.5 goals (-146) 1.5 units
- Single-game parlay - Tottenham to win & Tottenham over 1.5 goals (-110) 1 unit
- To score anytime - Harry Kane (-110) 1 unit
Leeds United (+327) at Aston Villa (-120) - 3:00 pm ET
No sooner had Leeds looked like they were pulling themselves away from relegation trouble with back-to-back wins, they then lost at home to Newcastle United last time out and now sit in 15th and seven points above the relegation zone. Leeds' struggles have largely been down to defensive troubles with 40 goals conceded (21 games), 23 of which have been conceded in ten away games. They have just one clean sheet on their travels.
Aston Villa comfortably sits in 11th place in the league and continues to show signs of improvement under Steven Gerrard. They've lost four of their ten home games this season but all of them came against teams currently in the top eight positions.
Aston Villa's January addition of Phillipe Coutinho adds an extra attacking threat and summer signing Emiliano Buendia has started to show the form Villa fans were expecting from him. If they are both firing, the home team should have too much for Leeds.
This game also sees two of the most penalized teams face each other. Leeds have received more yellow cards (58) than anyone else this season while Aston Villa have the tied fourth most (45). The referee is scheduled to be Jarred Gillett who has shown 17 yellow cards in his four EPL games this season (4.25 per game average).
In two games that both finished 3-0, Gillett showed two and three yellow cards respectively and in the other two games (which ended 1-1 and 2-1), Gillett showed seven and five yellow cards. I expect this to be a tighter game than a three-goal winning margin and it should be somewhat feisty so there should be a few bookings shown.
Leeds United have had at least two bookings in nine of their ten away games, while Aston Villa have had one or fewer bookings in five of their ten home games. I expect Aston Villa to control possession so Leeds United picking up more bookings also appeals.
We'll also lean into the combative nature of these two for our final pick of there being a penalty taken in the game. Both teams have seen a total of six penalties in their games this season and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw one awarded on Wednesday. Gillett has awarded one penalty in his four EPL games this season already.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Leeds United
Betting Picks
- Moneyline - Aston Villa (-120) 1.5 units
- Total cards - Over 3.5 (-163) 1.5 units
- Team most booking points - Leeds United (+100) 1 unit
- A penalty to be taken - Yes (+150) 0.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
