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Jon Anderson's Third Base Tiered Rankings and Projections

We're really getting close to the draft season now, and we're firmly on our way through the different positions, ranking and tiering off the top-300 or so players.

Today, we look at third base. Typically, this has been a pretty heavy position full of big-time hitters. The top of the ranks is still that, we have a few of the game's best hitters here. What we don't have is many steals or much depth. After the top three tiers, you really aren't able to feel super confident with your pick. You can only cover so many positions with your first handful of picks, but third base does seem like a good place to get someone early.

Let's break down the third base fantasy baseball rankings tiers and see what we have to work with!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

 

Tier One - The Elite

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Jose Ramirez 1 4 633 100 35 99 25 .270

The lone man on top. Ramirez is one of only two players at this position projecting for more than 20 steals. He does that while also giving you a great supply of runs, homers, and RBI. The one slight hole in his game is the batting average, but you can see the "median" projection of .270 here is still pretty good in today's league. J-Ram is elite.

 

Tier Two

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Manny Machado 2 22 650 93 32 101 10 .275
Rafael Devers 3 16 647 99 39 106 5 .281

And just like that, the steals are gone. You can still get 5-10 from these two names, but the real appeal here is that these are two of the league's top power bats, and they both manage strikeouts very well. They can put up a really good batting average with some BABIP luck, and both are great bets for 35 homers and an easy 100 RBI.

 

Tier Three

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Austin Riley 4 46 618 86 31 94 0 .271
Nolan Arenado 5 63 644 83 31 97 2 .258
Kris Bryant 6 88 587 84 23 72 7 .257
Alex Bregman 7 86 611 84 25 84 2 .268

I nearly put Riley in Tier Two; I think he's pretty darn similar to Machado and Devers. The thing that kept him out of there was the lack of sample size and the full lack of steals. It is really tough to get a steals projection of zero, you don't see it very often.

The rest of those three names are pretty similar. All were previously first-round guys in fantasy, but have struggled a bit in recent years. Arenado is great for power numbers, but won't steal and will probably hit below .270 for the rest of his career outside of Coors Field. Bryant has more upside than the rest of the group with some steals ability, and Bregman is a fine consolation prize at this price - although there are real questions about his power potential these days.

 

Tier Four

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Anthony Rendon 8 104 574 76 23 81 1 .272
Ke'Bryan Hayes 9 140 600 77 16 63 12 .267
Adalberto Mondesi 10 62 493 65 16 55 42 .244
DJ LeMahieu 11 108 645 85 14 64 4 .282

Rendon could certainly have a bounce-back healthy season and end up in Tier Two next year, but he has really struggled since joining the Angels. Not only has he struggled to stay healthy, he just hasn't been a great power source with them. You can see that evidenced by his low 23 homer projection. He's just not a game-changing fantasy bat with the lower power output and no steals.

The upside bats are Hayes and Mondesi, but honestly, I'm not sure why you'd want to mess around with Mondesi at this point - but I get it if you get absolutely no steals early on. LeMahieu is a fine source of runs and batting average but really does not have much else in his game.

 

Tier Five

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Luis Urias 12 150 547 68 19 65 5 .251
Justin Turner 13 156 549 77 23 78 2 .280
Yoan Moncada 14 141 616 79 19 70 4 .260
Josh Donaldson 15 202 565 79 28 77 1 .248

I much prefer this tier, relative to price, as compared to Tier Four. I think Urias is a guy that will really have a nice year here with his contact and power abilities, but the ceiling is relatively low. Turner had one of his best years at the plate at age 36, showing off really great power while still hitting for a great batting average. Eventually, age will catch up with him, but I'm not sure it's this year. Donaldson hit plenty of lasers last year, but isn't quite an everyday player at this point and has had all kinds of troubles with injuries. As for Moncada, he's pretty much a "blah" player right now - but there's still hope for some upside to be realized at just the age of 26.

 

Tier Six

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Eduardo Escobar 16 186 590 71 23 79 2 .243
Ryan McMahon 17 161 582 76 25 81 5 .254
Matt Chapman 18 181 613 77 29 78 3 .223
Eugenio Suarez 19 192 551 73 32 82 1 .229
Abraham Toro 20 257 486 57 15 57 7 .249
Jeimer Candelario 21 230 607 71 20 70 1 .257

You're really giving up batting average with most of these names, but you can get some homers from this group. Chapman and Suarez have been all-or-nothing bats for a few years now, and the rest of these guys just don't do anything particularly well. It's not a tier you want to fill your starting spot with, but some fine utility or bench options here.

 

Tier Seven

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Gio Urshela 22 261 485 54 15 59 1 .265
Alec Bohm 23 284 487 59 13 56 5 .264
Luis Arraez 24 303 551 67 5 50 3 .299
Cavan Biggio 25 298 484 60 15 51 7 .229
Jonathan Villar 26 292 451 56 13 43 16 .247
Yandy Diaz 27 378 473 58 12 54 1 .272
Mike Moustakas 28 365 441 54 21 61 1 .240
Joey Wendle 29 355 457 55 8 45 8 .254
Patrick Wisdom 30 315 508 63 26 69 5 .218

And here's "the rest". There's some upside with young guys like Bohm and Biggio, and some boring but steady producers in Diaz and Moustakas. I don't think any of these are start-worthy fantasy players, but you can pick them for your bench and hope for the best.

 

My Third Base Strategy

Ramirez is my #3 overall player right now just because of the steals. I like Riley quite a bit as well as I think he's going to end up really close to Devers and Machado this year and is much cheaper. I also still like the buy-low on Rendon and Bregman.

As for late-round picks, there's no one I'm really excited about, but I do expect to have some shares of Urias and Donaldson in the middle rounds. I'm also not opposed to grabbing a lottery ticket on Bohm or Biggio very, very late. Thanks for checking out the third base tiers!



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