EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 26: English Premier League

3 years ago by Jamie Steed

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It was another one of our patented "nearly weeks" last weekend, with us denied a profit by inches. Firstly, Leeds United hit the woodwork twice and if either effort found its way in, we'd have bagged a nice profit on the game. Then Aston Villa were denied an equalizer against Newcastle by the most marginal offside decision that even VAR had difficulty checking. That prevented us from another profitable game and those two near-misses turned a 114% ROI and profit into a 77% ROI and a loss. Here's hoping our luck changes for the better this weekend.

Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.

We've been cranking up the soccer content this year at RotoBaller too. We'll be bringing you DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@vdray5, @RichKingFF, @LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo) and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.

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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks

Total picks: 92-151-12 (-12.77 units)
Match results: 28-34

Saturday, February 19th, 2022

Newcastle United (+444) at West Ham United (-138) - 7:30 am ET

Newcastle made it three league wins on the bounce with a 1-0 victory over Aston Villa last time out. That's also now five games unbeaten in the EPL and two clean sheets in their last three games (just three conceded in their last five games). They did lose Kieran Trippier through injury last weekend and he's expected to miss most of the remainder of this season.

West Ham picked up a point in a 2-2 draw at Leicester City last weekend and needed a controversial injury-time equalizer to do so, with the ball seemingly going in off of Craig Dawson's arm. Their recent form has been decent with four wins and a draw in their last seven games. But closer inspection raises some concerns.

If we look at West Ham's last ten league games, they have four wins, four losses and two draws. Of the four wins, two came against Watford (19th), one against Norwich City (18th) and one against Crystal Palace (13th). The two draws came against Leicester City (11th) and Burnley (20th) while their defeats came against teams currently 4th, 6th, 10th and 15th in the league.

So while their form has been decent, it's been a pretty easy run with five games coming against the bottom six in the league and seven of their last ten games being against teams in the bottom half of the table.

The 18 goals West Ham have conceded at home this season (12 games) is more than anyone in the top half of the table and while Newcastle comes into the game in 17th place, their form is that of a top-half team themselves and I can see them springing an upset. I'm more confident of the away team getting a point than I am of them taking all three so we will hedge a bit.

Since Christmas, West Ham are averaging two goals per game in the league so I don't foresee Newcastle keeping a clean sheet, but they have improved at the back with their recent signings and look much more organized, no more so than last weekend.

Allan Saint-Maximin has been in good form lately but they miss top scorer Callum Wilson with January signing Chris Wood still seeking his first goal for the club. It feels like a case of whether Newcastle can find the net more than once which will determine whether they win or draw this game.

We'll also be playing the bookings market. Newcastle's 58 yellow cards this season is the second-most in the league while West Ham's 34 is the fourth-fewest. During their five-game unbeaten run, Newcastle has had at least two players booked in each game and have received 26 yellow cards in the 12 games Eddie Howe has been in charge.

Score prediction: West Ham United 1 - 1 Newcastle United

Betting Picks

Double chance - Newcastle United or Draw (+125) 1 unit
Draw no bet - Newcastle United (+300) 0.5 units
Both teams to score - Yes (-120) 1 unit
Most cards - Newcastle United (-105) 1 unit
Team total bookings - Newcastle United over 1.5 (-195) 2 units

Everton (+269) at Southampton (+110) - 10:00 am ET

Everton picked up a much-needed 3-0 win at home to Leeds United last weekend, but as mentioned in the intro, needed the assistance of their goalframe to seal their first win in seven league games. Southampton's unbeaten run of three league games (one win and two draws) might not seem much, but they've faced Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham in that spell.

This could be the game to watch if you want to see a closely fought game that could be filled with goals. Southampton's home record has seen them lose just once in 11 games but they have just three wins with seven draws. Both teams have scored in each of Southampton's last five home games and in each of their last eight league games.

Since Frank Lampard took over at Everton, they've won 3-0 and 4-1 (FA Cup) at home while losing 3-1 away. It's difficult to look at their form from earlier in the season too much given their recent change in manager but their clean sheet last weekend was the first one in 11 eleven league games and they had conceded 22 goals in their ten previous league games.

Southampton have yet to trail at half-time in any home league game this season while Everton have only gone into the break ahead once in their 11 away games. Southampton's struggles have come in the second half of their home games in which they've lost five and drawn four of the second halves.

Everton have been better in the second hlaf of their away games, winning four of them and drawing three so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Southampton ahead at the break before the away side mounted a comeback to leave with at least a point.

Score prediction: Southampton 2 - 2 Everton

Betting Picks

Moneyline - Draw (+264) 1 unit
Half-time/Full-time - Southampton/Draw (+1200) 0.5 units
Both teams to score - Yes (-150) 1.5 units
A goal in each half - Yes (-133) 1.5 units

Watford (+465) at Aston Villa (-145) - 10:00 am ET

Watford's troubles don't appear to have been cured by appointing Roy Hodgson as manager. They've lost two and drawn one of the three EPL games since his appointment and are still seeking their first goal. While they have conceded just three times in those three games, they've now failed to score in five of their last six league games.

Watford's 43 goals conceded is the fourth most and their 23 goals scored is the fourth-fewest. Neither end of the pitch has been working well at the same time and I expect more misery for their fans this weekend.

Aston Villa's league form has been a bit sketchy of late with just one league win in their last six games but they have been finding the back of the net more frequently. The blank in last week's game was due to the most marginal offside call of the season and was the first time they had failed to score in seven league games (since facing Liverpool).

In Aston Villa's 11 home games, they've scored in each one and have two or more goals in eight of those games. They have conceded 11 goals in their last five home league games so Watford will be confident in finding their first goal under Roy Hodgson but it's unlikely to be enough.

Phillipe Coutinho has two goals and two assists in his four EPL games (three starts) for Aston Villa and his only start at home saw him score once and assist twice against Leeds United. His other goal came at home on his debut as a substitute. I'd expect him to score or assist (if not both) this weekend.

Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 - 1 Watford

Betting Picks