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The end of the NBA season is a double-edged sword. The closer we get to the finish, the more the games either do, or don’t matter. Sounds dumb, but depending on where exactly you are in the standings, some games simply don’t matter. Tonight, every game carries some type of weight, even a matchup between the Eastern Conference’s 13th and 14th seeds, the Pacers and Pistons. Indiana’s new rotation was one of two teams to beat the surging Celtics in the month of February, and even a small win streak could turn a 7.5 game deficit behind the 11th place Wizards into a much closer race.
Friday’s nine-game slate features Trae Young, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Nikola Jokic in extremely favorable positions. When the biggest concern is whoever you bet on might play so well that they put the game out of reach, that’s a sign of good things to come even if your premonition does come true. The Rockets are currently the “worst” team in the league and are still putting up fights on a nightly basis. The same goes for teams like Orlando, Detroit, and Oklahoma City, so with so much on the line tonight, late-game offense is going to be key, even for contenders.
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CLE @ PHI
Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 29.5 Points – Darius Garland (CLE) MORE 20.5 Points
Joel Embiid has dominated this frontcourt for over 40 points twice this season and there’s absolutely no way you take the under here. Given the small sample size playing alongside Harden, Embiid is taking less shots, although the 76ers are winning. This likely won’t be a high-scoring game with how both teams like to play on the slower end, but any game featuring three all-stars has a ton of upside. Even if for just those three. The 76ers are playing on the first night of a back-to-back and this will be the toughest two-game stretch for Embiid, who has to play Jarrett Allen tonight, followed by Bam Adebayo tomorrow.
Looking more specifically at Darius Garland lining up against Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Matisse Thybulle, he clearly will have a lot on his hands, especially being the only scoring option in the Cavs’ backcourt. Regardless, it won’t keep him from getting over 20 shots up, so his floor remains fairly high even when the rest of the team is at a disadvantage.
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ATL @ WAS
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 27.5 Points – Kyle Kuzma (WAS) MORE 19.5 Points
This has to be one of the favorite wagers for most bettors tonight. Kyle Kuzma is a shooter that can thrive from any-level depending on what the defense gives him, and the Hawks try to funnel opposing offenses towards Clint Capela or force them to engage in shootouts against the Hawks backcourt. Kuzma is more likely to pull up from mid-range or try to isolate mismatches in the post, and there not much a solid defensive game plan can do against that. Kuzma has also been the one carrying this offense with no shortage of opportunities, he just has to hit the shots he creates for himself.
With how much hype was being put into Kuzma’s scoring tonight, double can be said for Trae Young against the Wizards guards. There is an injury tag next to Young’s name on MKF, but can’t seem to find that same info elsewhere. Either it’s a scare tactic or it hasn’t been updated, because Young will more than likely play tonight and rest over the weekend before the Hawks play again Monday.
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IND @ DET
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 19.5 Points – Tyrese Haliburton (IND) MORE 18.5 Points
How much defense can there possible be in a game like this? That’s not to say you should take the over without hesitation here, but the two best players are not going to see much resistance, if any. Not only will both Jerami Grant and Tyrese Haliburton score tonight, but they are likely going to be able to involve teammates at an uncommonly high-rate. Haliburton has already built a reputation on his ability to have high assist totals, but Grant will never post more than five assists on any given night. Grant has scored 26 points the last three games and even though he still won’t be the primary playmaker, expect a few extra assists to magically find their way into his box score by way of dump-off passes.
With so few defensive playmakers, the serious worry is whether or not Buddy Hield will take away most of the scoring away from his Pacer teammates. Haliburton naturally gets to his spots, but he isn’t as demanding when it comes to putting up points and will inherently make the winning play. If that means passing to Hield or Oshea Brissett all game, so be it, Haliburton will still find a way to get his 20-points by way of drives or just pulling from deep when the chance comes.
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HOU @ DEN
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 26.5 Points – Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 19.5 Points
There’s not much to say about Nikola Jokic that hasn’t been said already. He’s going up against the worst frontcourt in the league and he’s about to put up so many stats that they’re going to need to use the scoreboard in Houston to keep up. This is the game where Jokic breaks his record for the fastest triple-double in history and only has to play a total of 18 minutes. Hopefully not, but you get the idea… he has some upside tonight. For Christian Wood, it’s the opposite.
The Rockets have their nights where they play well, but the Christian Wood project has seemed to be a failure from the start. From physically walking away from the team to drilling an unaware fan with an errant pass, there’s been laughs to say the least, but consistency and point production wouldn’t exactly describe this season for him. It’s safe to say that when a bad defense is faced with their toughest challenge, especially when it’s one player, things tend to go poorly. In the first game between these teams, Jokic scored 28 points on 15 shots, and in the second matchup, he put up 24 points on 12 shots in 25 minutes. Both times Wood either didn’t play or played poorly, zero points in eight minutes the most recent matchup, 12 points on 11 attempts when they played earlier in the season.
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