A Tale of Two Months: Third Base

With over two months now in the books, and many players having played nearly as many games as they did in 2020, it's time to take stock on the truth behind various hot starts and slumps.

However, we shouldn't do so just for our own edification, as there is good instruction to be had. Knowing who to target and who to trade away; who can be relied on for the future and who you need to have backup plans for. Don't wait until right before the trade deadline to start making moves. The time is now.

With that in mind, we're going to go around the positions, using the biggest differences in wOBA between April and May as our jumping-off point. And since we're now a week in, we might as well include June too. After covering first base and second base, it's time for the hot corner. Let's find some truth in spring advertisements, shall we?

Third Base wOBA Changes

First, a few parameters and explanations. We'll use a minimum of 50 PA in each of April and May (and June) as our cutoff and players will be sorted according to change in wOBA. Values mentioned are from the FanGraphs auction calculator, using settings for a 12-team league with: C (1) - 1B (1) - 2B (1) - SS (1) - 3B (1) - OF (5) - MI (1) - CI (1) - UT (1).

Regardless of whether a player's wOBA has gone up, down, or stayed the same, that change doesn't tell the whole story, so we'll try to get a better sense of the whole picture using fantasy value breakdowns and a variety of advanced stats. And pictures, too!

Speaking of:

The Good

Yoan Moncada, 3B, CHW ($12.0, 3B 10)

243 PA: 5 HR - 30 R - 30 RBI - 0 SB - .294/.424/.431

Posting a .897 OPS and an elite .400 wOBA, Moncada seems poised for a big summer. His wOBA on contact has been just as good, with a .501 wOBAcon and .534 xwOBAcon since May 1 that is up from a .423 wOBAcon and .425 xwOBAcon in April.

Just as impressive has been the improvement in his plate discipline, at least in his ability to work counts and walks. His strikeout rate has stayed steady but Moncada has gone from a 12.0% BB% to 19.6% since May 1, with 20.7% Chase% that's his lowest since 2018 and down nearly seven points from 2020.

While Moncada only has five home runs on the year, he's at least had the distance for a few more. Here are all of his fly balls in 2021, overlayed at home:

The more impressive thing might be how much consistent Moncada has been with the quality of batted balls. Let's look at his spray chart from 2020 (130 bbe), taking note of how many balls were weakly hit with either negative launch angles or ones over 45-degrees, at lower exit velocities. In other words, weak grounders and cans of corn:

And here's Moncada in 2021 (132 bbe):

The tighter grouping of balls hit at angles and velocities that have the best chance of success is apparent. Moncada isn't yet seeing the fruits of his labor but when you hit balls hard and at good angles, good things tend to happen.

The White Sox are a top-five offense and Moncada is right in the middle of it, batting third in every game since April 17. He's getting on base more, posting a career-high (by over 50-points) .424 OBP, and both his damage on and expected damage on contact are both running elite. Even better, he still only has five home runs and no other stats that jump off the page, making him a prime buy-low candidate.

Austin Riley, 3B, ATL ($15.8, 3B 6)

218 PA: 10 HR - 31 R - 25 RBI - 0 SB - .305/.390/.513

From a buy-low to a sell-high, there might be some fantasy pain on Riley's horizon, even as his wOBA, OPS, ISO, SLG, and wOBAcon are all up from what they were in April. But hear me out. For one, his excellent .396 wOBA since May 1 is backed by a just above-average .362 xwOBA. Honestly, though, that's a little nit-picky, considering that he has a .567 wOBAcon since May 1 backed by a .508 xwOBAcon.

That's the thing, I believe in Riley's pop. His average exit velocity on balls in the air is back up to 95.1 mph, as it had dipped all the way down to 92.0 mph in 2020 after averaging 95.5 mph in 2019. And his Air% (100+mph) has gone from 36.2% in 2019, to 33.8% in 2020, to now 44.1% so far in 2021. The boom in his stick isn't the problem, though, when it comes to overall fantasy value.

That problem lies with the .305 AVG that is propping up much of Riley's value so far, and that average is propped up by a .398 BABIP and .258 xBA. He had a .226 AVG in 2019 (.293 BABIP, .225 xBA) and a .239 AVG in 2020 (.280 BABIP, .258 xBA).

Bad news, everyone, Austin Riley is not suddenly a .300 hitter. He's a .240-.250 hitter and it's only a matter of time before the man comes around to collect. In fact, he may already be heading down the road:

Looking at the breakdown of his value by category (not including positional value), a big drop in average will not behoove him:

See what I mean about his value being propped up by a suspect batting average? It's not that I think that he's going to drop off a cliff but if his batting average starts going back to where it seems headed, he's going to need a lot more power production to keep him from being value-sink (relative to what he's been so far).

Maybe Riley being a sell-high is more a team-specific thing, as you might need all the power you can get and let batting average be damned. But for those who need to stay more balanced, moving on from Riley might be in your best interest.

The Bad

Evan Longoria, 3B, TB  ($13.8, 3B 7)

186 PA: 9 HR - 28 R - 30 RBI - 1 SB - .280/.376/.516

A quick moment to pour one out for the resurgent Longoria, who will be on the IL for 4-6 weeks after a collision with teammate Brandon Crawford left him with an SC Joint dislocation  - not a common injury in baseball. Hopefully, his return will fall on the shorter end of that timetable, as it did with the most recent comparable injury, when Kevin Pillar returned in less than three weeks, after an initial diagnosis of 4-6 weeks. Because while his wOBA and OPS since May 1 had dropped over what they were in April, tracking with Rafael Devers is a good way to put into context just how good Longoria had been.

Now, don't confuse wOBA and OPS for fantasy value, as Devers' large advantage in counting stats makes him the top third baseman - and by a large margin over Longo. But Longoria's renaissance is backed by marked improvement across the board, both in his results, expected results, and overall authoritative ball-striking. His 15.1% Brl% (top-9%) and 61.3% Hard% (top-1%) are both easily career highs, as is his average exit velocity of 95.9 mph (top-1%).

With the new baseball, exit velocity increases are less trustworthy than in years past but the magnitude of Longoria's increases should be noted, with his 98.8 mph average EV on balls hit in the air placing him in 15th among batters with a minimum of 100 batted-ball events.

Despite being the seventh-best third baseman in 12-team leagues, according to the FanGraphs auction calculator, Longoria was less than 50% rostered on ESPN and Yahoo, with that number sure to drop more during his recovery. Just don't forget about him once a clearer timetable for his return emerges.

Matt Chapman, OAK, 3B (-$3.2, 3B 18)

241 PA: 5 HR - 22 R - 23 RBI - 1 SB - .205/.311/.330 

Good grief, what an all-around disaster. Like a reverse Longoria, Chapman's results expected results, and exit velocities have all taken as big of a nosedive as his fantasy value in 2021, coming in well below replacement level in 12-team leagues. And he's somehow been even worse since May 1 as he was in April, posting a .598 OPS and .273 wOBA that are among the lowest you can find among everyday starters.

Those thinking Chapman is a good buy-low candidate might want to take a step back, at least until his exit velocities show signs of life. His 87.7 mph average exit velocity is down from 93.6 mph in 2020 and his average exit velocity on balls in the air has dropped from 95.6 mph last season to 91.7 mph in 2021.

I want to believe in a bounceback given what we've seen in the past, I'm just having a hard time finding reasons to justify buying unless the discount is massive.

Justin Turner, LAD, 3B ($16.3, 3B 6)

237 PA: 9 HR - 37 R - 30 RBI - .270/.363/.451

Now, this is how you fall off of a cliff, with Turner falling from the highest high to way down low. But while a .650 OPS and .298 wOBA are brutal, Turner has at least scored 20 runs since May 1 (17 R in April). However, he's only hit three home runs, compared to six in Apri, and gone from 20 RBI to 10 RBI, with the bottom falling out of his .330 AVG in April, to a . 218 AVG since.

Batting in the middle of the Dodgers order will keep him full of opportunities but it's hard to imagine he'll continue to bat third if this precipitous fall continues.

The Meh

Anthony Rendon, 3B, LAA (-$5.5, 3B 23)

161 PA: 3 HR - 15 R - 22 RBI - 0 SB - .236/.311/.347

Rendon's wOBA and OPS may not have changed much between April and now but that just means he's been consistently terrible through the first 9 weeks of the season. The lack of counting stats is bad enough but when exactly did Rendon forget how to hit? Because a .236 AVG is highly unusual for someone who can seemingly roll out of bed and hit .300. While a .263 BABIP and .251 xBA speak some unluckiness, it's still not enough to explain the big dips.

It could just be that Rendon is trying to do too much, with his 31.4% FB% up from 24.1% in 2020 and his 24.8% LD% representing a career-low. Taking a look at Rendon's plate discipline, a pattern of increased impatience seems to emerge:

Career-highs in first-pitch swings and chase-rate jump out, with Rendon's contact on balls out of the zone also up from 2020 (though in line with other seasons). And while he's swinging more at balls in the zone, he's also making less contact. Given all of that, it's no surprise that Rendon is seeing a career-low of pitches on the edge, with pitchers expanding their zone for the now wilder Rendon.

While there's not much positive going on with Rendon, I'd be willing to bet on his pitch selection (and batting average) getting turned back around. I'm obviously hunting for a big discount but he's a solid buy-low candidate, as a return to normal batting average (and eventually Mike Trout) should get his fantasy value back kicking for the summer.

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