Is Aaron Judge Worth The Draft Risk?

On September 18, 2019, Aaron Judge suffered a stress fracture in his rib while attempting to make a catch in right field. Judge played through the injury, but he was forced to take a break from hitting in early March thanks to shoulder and pectoral discomfort.

Judge recently began swinging again, and GM Brian Cashman is optimistic that the outfielder will be ready for Opening Day, but the uncertain nature of Judge’s injury and the potential for setbacks and flare-ups make Judge’s timeline unclear. As a result, fantasy owners should price a risk-related discount into Judge’s draft price.

Furthermore, his status as a single-category-reliant fantasy asset makes him riskier than other fantasy outfielders. That is especially true in a 60-game season when a relatively minor slump can have significant fantasy implications.

What Is A Fully Healthy, Well-Performing Aaron Judge Worth?

To set a baseline for Judge’s value, here’s his expected 2020 production based on RotoBaller projections: 

Unsurprisingly, Judge is expected to rank near the top of the league in home runs with a 6.5% home run rate that would have ranked 11th among qualified hitters last season. Judge’s OBP is also expected to be high at .378 thanks in part to a career 16.1% walk rate. That combination of a high OBP and elite power makes Judge one of the best pure power hitters in baseball and worthy of an early-round draft pick when healthy.

According to Nick Mariano’s Expected Draft Value research and Judge's projected 2020 production, Judge is worth something around the 45th overall pick in drafts. Importantly though, that’s with Judge projected for 540 PA per 162 games. If he were truly fully healthy, fantasy owners could expect 650 PA out of the outfielder. With that in mind, Judge’s fully healthy, projected-performance expected draft value (EDV) is something around the 30th overall pick in drafts.

Working In Injury and Performance Risk

Judge has already batted against live pitching without reporting discomfort (publicly, anyway), so he's likely to avoid setbacks between now and the start of the regular season. Still, the Yankees may elect to bring Judge along slowly given their tremendous outfield depth, and his rib may become an issue again during the season.

As long as Judge can avoid surgery (a likelihood at this point), he should have a PA-floor of about 150. That PA total would bring Judge's projected home run total down to 10, and his EDV down to around 125. However, based on the fact that Judge was reportedly pain-free after facing Gerrit Cole in a simulated game, he seems likely to achieve his 200 PA projection. At 200 PA, Judge is worth the 45th pick in drafts.

But there's more to Judge's risk than injuries alone. Judge once went 15 consecutive games without a home run and without stolen bases or a strong batting average likely to buoy his value; a HR slump could demolish Judge's fantasy value. Judge's consistency helps mitigate that concern as he posted an OPS above .900 in all but one month last season, but even a one-point drop in his home run rate would take his EDV down to around 65.

Conclusion

Judge's risk has diminished significantly over the past few weeks, but injury-related playing time concerns and the possibility of a slump make the 28-year-old particularly risky this year. Given that level of risk and Judge's realistic ceiling as the 30th pick in drafts, Judge is an appropriate pick around and slightly below his 40 ADP.

Fantasy owners who choose to be especially risk-averse this year should avoid drafting Judge before the 50th pick in drafts. Fantasy owners relying on a more aggressive strategy can reach as high as the low 30s to draft Judge, but drafting Judge before the 30th pick in drafts is very optimistic.

Even with extremely conservative estimates for playing time and production, Judge is likely always worth drafting by the 125th pick in drafts. Allowing Judge to slide past pick 100 is probably excessively risk-averse. As a result, a reasonable pick range sits between 30 and 100 on the extremes, with most fantasy owners finding him worthwhile between picks 40 and 55.

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