ADP Champ or Chump: Jon Berti

Ever since the shortened season's rules were announced, it seems like fantasy owners obsessed over what it would mean for their pitching staff. Will my pitchers throw enough to get wins? Will teams use openers regularly? These are all valid questions, but owners would be wise to remember that pitching is only one-half of standard roto leagues. The advent of a COVID IL with no minimum number of games missed will encourage teams to IL anybody who needs a test, forcing fantasy owners to turn to their bench frequently.

The solution to this problem is to roster bench bats who can fill in at multiple positions and provide fantasy-friendly production. Jon Berti of the Miami Marlins is one example of the type of guy you should be looking at. He slashed a respectable .273/.348/.406 with six homers and 17 steals over 287 PAs last year, but owners are leery of his 25.4 K% and .360 BABIP. He's also 30 years old and was drafted 559th overall in the 2011 amateur draft, two factors that almost certainly played a role in his current 276.4 ADP on FantasyPros. Furthermore, Berti doesn't have a defined role heading into the season.

That last problem is the easiest to solve. According to Joe Frisario of MLB.com, Berti could play "5-6 times per week as the Marlins super-utility player during the compacted schedule." That's pretty much everyday reps even if they don't come at a set position. Berti's peripheral stats and MiLB resume also suggest that he'll be a viable speed play in fantasy with the potential to help in batting average, OBP, and runs as well.

An Extensive MiLB Career

Berti had a brief taste of the big leagues with Toronto in 2018, but we only have 302 total PAs at the MLB level to evaluate him on. As you might expect from a 30-year-old, that number increases considerably if you look at minor league stats. The sheer volume of data affords us the luxury of considering only stops with at least 100 PAs.

Berti stole an impressive 56 bases with a 75% success rate at the High-A level in 2013, forcing the Blue Jays to give their non-prospect a shot with Double-A (New Hampshire) the next year. It went well, with Berti slashing .270/323/.373 with seven homers and 40 SB in 594 PAs. He was thrown out on the bases 15 times for a solid success rate of 73% after rounding, suggesting that he knows how to steal a base. His 13.8 K% was also excellent, allowing Berti to make the most of his .305 BABIP.

Berti returned to New Hampshire to begin 2015, slashing .262/.345/.336 with a homer and 19 steals over 297 PAs. He was only caught stealing four times for a success rate of 83%. Berti also demonstrated an increased willingness to walk, as his 8.8 BB% improved his prior mark of 5.9% by nearly three full percentage points. His K% also fell to 12.8% while his BABIP held steady at an even .300.

The Jays decided to reward Berti with a taste of Triple-A (Buffalo) in 2015. Berti's BABIP cratered to .262 at the higher level, leading to a disappointing slash line of .228/.307/.302 with two homers and four steals over 166 PAs. His 15.1 K% and 8.4 BB% both suggested that Berti was adjusting to more advanced pitching, and 166 PAs is way too small of a sample to trust BABIP. Still, the Blue Jays sent him back down to New Hampshire to begin 2016.

Berti was good again for New Hampshire, hitting .254/.358/.364 with two homers and 29 steals in just 319 PAs. He was only caught nine times on the bases, posting a strong success rate of 76%. His BB% also increased to 11.3% at the cost of a slight uptick in his 17.6 K%. Perhaps most importantly, his BABIP rebounded to .312.

Unfortunately, Berti only managed a .256 BABIP over 237 PAs for Buffalo in 2017, producing a substandard .205/.271/.321 line with three homers and 23 steals. His K% also jumped to a career-worst 22.4%, though he still walked (8.4 BB%) and posted an 85% success rate on the bases (four CS). The Blue Jays again decided to try to let Berti figure out his BABIP issues in New Hampshire in 2018.

If Berti was good at Double-A before, he was great in 2018. He slashed .314/.399/.498 with eight homers and 21 steals over 316 PAs, increasing his BB% to 9.2 while simultaneously getting his K% down to 14.6. His 70% success rate on the bases wasn't the best, but his .354 BABIP suggested that he didn't have a BABIP problem. The Blue Jays decided to sell high to the Indians, who promptly traded him back to Toronto after just 73 PAs in their system. Toronto called him up for a handful of PAs before designating him for assignment, allowing him to sign with Miami as a minor league free agent.

Berti finally hit at Triple-A last season, slashing .290/.430/.500 with four homers and five steals in 79 PAs for Triple-A (New Orleans) before heading to the Show. His .292 BABIP was still a hair below-average, but it's an easy problem to overlook when your 19 BB% is greater than your 13.9 K%.

Berti's 2019 in Review

So, what does all of that mean? Berti hasn't had a strikeout problem at any point in his career, with a 22.4 K% at Triple-A in 2017 his worst mark by far. He's great on the bases, and can work a walk even though opposing pitchers have every incentive in the world not to let him. Berti's fantasy-friendly 2019 line seemed to come out of nowhere, and owners generally don't get excited about players on teams projected to be as bad as the Marlins. That said, he did a lot of good things in MiLB that fantasy owners would be remiss to overlook.

Many of his major league peripherals also support his performance. Berti's 25.4 K% masked a solid 8.4 BB%, further supporting the notion that he has a plus eye. The sample size is admittedly small, but Berti also posted a very good 25% chase rate with the Marlins last season. Berti's primary job in fantasy is to steal bases, so a walk is nearly as good for his owners as a single.

Similarly, Berti's 9.5 SwStr% was considerably better than his 25.4 K% might suggest. His 41.6 Swing% was on the low side, so he can get too patient at times and strikeout more often than we would otherwise expect him to. Still, nobody with an 85.7 Z-Contact% and 25% chase rate should be expected to K a quarter of the time, to say nothing of the contact skills Beri demonstrated on the farm. Shave his K% down to 20% or so, and Berti's average can probably withstand some BABIP regression.

Berti won't post a BABIP of .360 again, but he legitimately profiles as a plus-BABIP guy. Speedsters can beat out base hits that other players can't, so it makes sense for them to post favorable BABIPs on ground balls. Berti hit .278 on his ground balls last year, a mark he should sustain as long as he maintains his elite 29.8 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed. His 20.8 FB% was also very low, giving him a batted ball profile designed to make the most of his legs.

Berti's 26.2 LD% would be great for his BABIP if he could sustain it, but he didn't possess any line drive skill on the farm. LD% is a notoriously fickle stat, so it's probably best to project Berti for a league-average mark around 21 percent. That's going to hurt considering that Berti enjoyed a .729 BABIP on liners last year, but his ground ball tendency and a lower strikeout rate should still give him a workable average.

For the record, Berti doesn't offer any power potential at all. His 3.8% rate of Brls/BBE and 2.4% Brls/PA were both well below-average, as was his overall average exit velocity of 86.6 mph. His 92.1 mph average airborne exit Velo wasn't terrible, but the fact that his xSLG was only .378 tells you all you need to know about Berti's nonexistent power.

Final Thoughts

Berti made at least 20 appearances at SS, 3B, and OF last season, giving him eligibility at all three in most formats. The Blue Jays used him exclusively at 2B during his brief 2018 callup, suggesting that he could expand his eligibility in 2020 and beyond. The Marlins also used Berti to leadoff in 44 of his 72 games last season, suggesting that he'll have an important lineup role whenever his name appears.

His K% should improve as his BABIP regresses, giving Berti all the opportunity he needs to wreak havoc on the bases. In fantasy, Berti is like Mallex Smith except that he won't cost as much and qualifies at more positions. Who wouldn't want that for free on draft day?

Verdict: Champ (based on strong SB potential at a very cheap price)

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