RADIO
Many fantasy owners fall into the trap of thinking that upside wins leagues -- it doesn't. Profit, or getting more production than you paid for, wins leagues. The upside of a top prospect can be one way of securing profit if they pan out right away, but there are other, more reliable forms of profit available on a typical draft board.
For example, Kyle Gibson posted a strong 2018 and a very similar '19 outside of luck metrics, yet he seems to be a forgotten man in most drafts. Owners seemingly collectively decided that they hate the Astros now, so several Houston players project to provide considerably more value than their draft-day cost. Michael Brantley is a good example of this.
While shiny prospects certainly have their place on fantasy rosters, the analysis below should show you the value of differentiating your portfolio to include other forms of profit.
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Kyle Gibson (SP, TEX)
ADP: 341.3
Gibson posted a 13-7 record and 4.84 ERA over 160 IP last season, but his 3.80 xFIP was right in line with the 3.62 ERA and 3.91 xFIP that he posted in 2018. His 22.7 K% last year was also a career best, though fairly modest by fantasy standards. The reason for optimism for the 32-year-old is a deep repertoire of secondary pitches and a move to an organization that has had a knack for turning pitchers into fantasy assets in recent years.
The chart below highlights the performance of all of Gibson's offerings in 2019:
Both his slider and his changeup serve as excellent put-away pitches that are easily good enough to post a K% around 30, but Gibson has never reached those heights because his fastballs leave much to be desired. A 42.3% Zone% on a vanilla four-seamer is woeful, and his sinker's 52.7% rate isn't high enough to reliably set up his secondary offerings. Opposing batters hit .302 with a .460 slugging percentage against the sinker and .343 with a .598 SLG against the fastball, so it's not like they offer contact suppression either.
Mike Minor and Lance Lynn were similar in that they had a couple of standout offerings amidst a pool of mediocrity, and the Rangers helped both develop into reliable fantasy assets. Furthermore, the Rangers were a much better defensive unit in 2019 (-2 Outs Above Average as a team) than the Twins (-20), suggesting that Gibson will benefit from superior defensive support. Globe Life Field is a complete unknown in terms of ballpark factors, but it has to be better for pitchers than the old one.
If you get the Gibson from the last couple of years, you'll have a volume arm who should easily return a profit on a modest draft day investment. If the Rangers can help Gibson rack up the K's that his secondary pitches seem capable of, you're talking about league-winning profit potential. Quite frankly, investments this good shouldn't be available once 200 -- let alone 300 -- players come off of the board.
Verdict: Champ (based on superlative secondary stuff and low price tag)
Michael Brantley (OF, HOU)
ADP: 121.6
Brantley enjoyed a very strong debut in Houston, slashing .311/.372/.503 with 22 HR and three steals. His power spike may have had something to do with the home run proliferation last year, but his average, OBP, and role in Houston's lineup should make him a highly desirable fantasy asset even if he regresses to 15 HR or so.
The heart of Brantley's profile is outstanding plate discipline skills. He walked (8 BB%) nearly as often as he struck out (10.4 K%) last season, and both figures are in-line with his career norms (7.9% and 10.6%, respectively). His 4 SwStr% was microscopic, while his solid 25.9% chase rate was a career-worst. The 32-year-old should be expected to avoid strikeouts, take his fair share of walks, and prop up his fantasy team's BA and OBP.
Brantley also has a line-drive swing (23.9 LD% last year, 23.2% career) that helps him beat the league-average BABIP consistently (.320 last year, .315 career). He doesn't hit many fly balls (30.8% last year, 30% career) or popups (3.2 IFFB% last year, 5.8% career), further boosting his BABIP potential. While opposing teams shifted him in 319 of 491 opportunities last season, his 54.1 Pull% on ground balls and .340 batting average against the shift suggest that fantasy owners don't need to worry about it.
That said, Brantley's power numbers last year were likely a mirage. He paired his low FB% with league-average airborne exit velocity (92.5 mph) and a below-average rate of Brls/BBE (5.8%) last season. Worse, Brantley actually improved to those numbers, as he was below-average in both numbers in 2018 (91.9 mph, 3.7% Brls/BBE). Brantley pulls his flies (22.3% last season, 21% career) and Minute Maid Park can help marginal power play up, but you shouldn't expect more than a 15 HR pace this year.
Brantley had previously swiped at least 10 bases in every season of his big league career save 2009 (121 PAs) and 2016 (43), and this author sees the Astros running more to curtail all of the HBP other teams throw at them. He's also projected to hit third in Houston's potent lineup, a slot that is likely among the best in the league for counting stat opportunities.
Add it all together, and you get a player who figures to make a meaningful contribution in all five standard fantasy categories. Most of the players taken around Brantley either have success in very small sample sizes (Zac Gallen 120.6, Dinelson Lamet 125.6) or considerable downside risk (Edwin Diaz 121.2, Madison Bumgarner 120.21), making Brantley a great choice at his current ADP.
Verdict: Champ (based on premium contact skills, role, and affordable price tag)
