ADP Cost Analysis – Aaron Nola vs Lance Lynn

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft value as possible. But how do we judge value in drafts?

It’s not possible to say “Player X has good value as he should be drafted 20 spots higher” since his value isn’t quantifiable as an individual. If you believe Player X should be drafted 20 spots higher than his ADP and then you draft him 20 spots higher than his ADP, you’ve just drafted all of the value out of him you claim he had. Said Player X might be drafted 30 spots higher than his ADP in one league and 30 spots lower in another and on each occasion, he might offer good value depending on how the draft was going at the point he is selected. Drafts are dynamic things that change and evolve throughout.

While value can be fluid and isn’t exclusively linked to a single player's ADP, we can compare players' ADP to give us a true reflection of who is offering value in drafts. If two players have similar projections and put up similar numbers, you’d expect them to have a similar ADP. That’s not always the case as we will see here.

The Numbers

Aaron Nola and Lance Lynn are separated in ADP on NFBC by 73 picks (Nola 54, Lynn 127). The lowest Nola has been taken in an NFBC draft this year was 92^nd overall while the highest Lynn has been drafted was 98^th, based on 331 drafts.

When comparing their Statcast profiles 2019 (below), you’d be forgiven for thinking I have their names the wrong way around. Despite going much later in drafts, last year Lynn had significantly better ratings in fastball spin rate, hard-hit rate allowed, and exit velocity allowed. Lynn also edged Nola with a greater fastball velocity, xwOBA (expected weight OBA), xSLG (expected SLG) and xBA (expected AVG). The only stat in Nola’s favor was his higher curve spin rate.

Did Lynn’s better Statcast ratings equal better results too? Albeit only marginally, they did as Lynn put up better numbers in all categories. Both pitchers threw over 200 innings while Lynn managed to get more wins, more strikeouts, a lower ERA, and a lower WHIP. A higher strikeout rate (K%) and lower walk rate (BB%) also belonged to Lynn, further questioning why Nola finds himself being drafted 73 picks before Lynn on average.

Lynn putting up a better season than Nola may have come as a surprise but if we delve deeper into their career numbers, Lynn’s season shouldn’t really have shocked anyone. In his last seven seasons dating back to 2012 (Lynn missed all of 2016 after having Tommy John Surgery), Lynn has posted a sub-4.00 ERA in all but one year (2017) and thrown 175+ innings in all but one (2018 when he threw 156.2 innings after a short stint in the Yankees’ bullpen).

2018 was Lynn’s worst season in the majors; meanwhile, Nola was having a career year. The former first-round draft pick put up outstanding numbers and looked every bit the top end starting pitcher. Below are the two pitchers' 2018 numbers.

Unlike last year, there is a clear difference between Nola’s and Lynn’s numbers. Only a year removed from such polarizing numbers, we can see Nola has set a very high ceiling while Lynn established a low floor. As mentioned, Lynn did miss all of 2016 after having TJS and although his return in 2017 looked impressive with a 3.43 ERA, it masked some issues. Lynn had a 4.82 FIP, 4.74 xFIP, a .244 BABIP and a career-low 7.39% K%. All that suggests Lynn’s 2018 wasn’t that surprising after all. Prior to Lynn’s TJS however, he had shown himself to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball. Below, we compare Lynn’s career numbers with Nola’s.

Although Lynn had a better 2019, the career numbers and their 2018 seasons support Nola being drafted ahead of Lynn. It is worth noting however that 2019 was Lynn’s first year as a Texas Rangers pitcher and his average fastball velocity (94.6 MPH) did increase from his previous high of 93.7 MPH set in 2018 (according to Statcast data going back to 2015). Lynn’s fastball saw a significant improvement in allowed wOBA, dropping from .346 in 2018 to .297 in 2019. If these gains were a result of Lynn’s new environment, his 2020 could look a lot more like his 2019 than most projections believe it will be.

Below are RotoBaller’s Nick Mariano projections for Nola and Lynn.

You will do well to find two pitchers with closer projections than Nola and Lynn. With the two projected so closely together an ADP difference of 73 doesn’t seem to make much sense. To give you an idea of what the difference should be for pitchers with their current ADP, we can use Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values (EDV) research (exclusive to RotoBaller). If we plug in the numbers from the EDV based on each pitcher’s ADP, this is the difference we’d be looking for.

We can see that at their current ADP, Nola and Lynn should have a greater difference in their numbers. Their career numbers and 2020 projections do not support a difference of 73 in their respective ADP.

Their situations aren’t too dissimilar either. Both are pitching for teams in a division with one weak opponent and three other teams with playoff aspirations. They both have new variables that we can’t predict the impact of too. The Phillies have a new manager in veteran Joe Girardi and the Rangers have a new ballpark, although given their old one was one of the most hitter friendliest in baseball, it’s hard to believe the new one will do Lynn any harm. Neither of these can really be factored into our draft decision making until we have any sort of sample size of their impacts.

Conclusion

When comparing Nola’s and Lynn’s numbers, it’s difficult to justify taking Nola 73 picks before Lynn.  Nola’s 2018 does give him a greater ceiling and tempts us into drafting him at his current ADP. Especially when we look at Lynn’s 2018 and the low floor it suggests he has. Lynn’s body of work outside of 2018 implies that it was an outlier of a year and the same could be said of Nola.

Even taking into count the ceilings and floors of them, 73 picks difference in ADP is still excessive regardless of the format you’re playing in. So when analyzing their current costs, Nola would need to outperform his projections by some margin to offer value for money in drafts. Lynn can offer greater value at his ADP by merely matching his projections, making Lynn the better value for money play this draft season with the distinct possibility of just outperforming Nola.

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