ADP Cost Analysis – Kris Bryant vs Josh Donaldson

Spring training is officially underway, which means baseball season is finally upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position decisions.

Third base is a fairly deep position for fantasy baseball heading into 2020, so there can be quite a bit of value throughout the draft. You want to make sure to draft your third baseman wisely and not reach for stats in early rounds that you may be able to acquire later in the draft, if at all possible.

In this article, we will take a look at two top-flight third basemen who are being drafted nearly four rounds apart: The Chicago Cubs' Kris Bryant (early ADP 48, sixth 3B) and the Minnesota Twins' Josh Donaldson (early ADP 95, 14th 3B). We will take a look at each player's history and advanced metrics to determine which of the two provides the most value at his current ADP.

Status Quo for Bryant?

Kris Bryant has had some ups and downs over his short five-year career. The ups include thee All-Star appearances (2015-2016, 2019), a Rookie-of-the-Year award (2015), and an NL MVP award (2016). The downs consist mostly of injury problems in 2018 when he only played in 102 games due to shoulder inflammation. After the injury-riddled 2018, Bryant bounced back with an All-Star performance in 2019 by slashing .282/.382/.521 with 31 HR, 77 RBI, 108 R, and 74 BB in 543 ABs. It was a solid season as noted by his All-Star selection, but a couple of questions remain entering the 2020 season. The first is whether or not he can repeat or improve upon these numbers, and the second is if a season like this makes him a solid value in the fourth round. A look into his advanced metrics and the overall landscape of 2020 fantasy drafts should give us some insight into these questions.

Bryant derives most of his value from his power and ability to hit home runs and drive in runs as well as his ability to get on base. In 2019, Bryant had an 87.4 mph exit velocity, .460 xSLG, and a hard-hit rate of 34.1%. These ranked him in the 23rd, 55th, and 25th percentiles, respectively. They were also below his career averages as was his barrel rate of 9.3%. These low metrics make you wonder if the shoulder injury was still bothering him or could continue to bother him in the future. He helped his value by adding in a walk rate of 11.7%, which was below his career average but was still very solid. The 22.9% strikeout rate is not ideal but can be forgiven if he continues to walk and hit for power.

Is he going to be worth a mid-to-late fourth-round pick in 2020? Well, in 2019, he finished the season ranked 52, which is very close to his current ADP, so you are not gaining much value by drafting him here and might be losing a couple of spots of value. He is also projected to hit leadoff for the Cubs in 2020, which could also affect his value. His ability to get on base will help him here and he will be more likely to score runs, however, opportunities to drive runs in will be less likely from the leadoff spot. Bryant also isn't a superb baserunner as the most bases he has stolen in a season is 12 and his sprint speed only ranks in the 76th percentile, which was good for 135th in the league.

Overall, Bryant's ADP is likely very close to the actual value you should expect him to return, which is not the most ideal situation. You want to try and draft someone who will provide more value than his current ADP and that could be the case with our next player.

Raining Value?

Josh Donaldson has had some ups and downs throughout his nine-year career as well. The downs mostly consist of a nagging calf injury he suffered through in 2017 and 2018, which limited him to 602 at-bats throughout those two seasons. The ups consist of basically everything else. He won the AL MVP in 2015 and has finished in the top-10 of MVP voting three other times in his career (2013-2014, 2016). He has put together four seasons of 30-plus home runs and has had five seasons of 90-plus RBI. He is also a master at drawing walks as his career walk-rate sits at 14.0%, which is nearly six points higher than the league average of 8.3%.

In 2019, Donaldson put together a solid bounce-back season after an injury-plagued 2018 in which he hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 HR, 94 RBI, 96 R, and 100 BB. While the season was not vintage Donaldson as far as batting average and strikeout rate were concerned, it was a very respectable output for the 34-year old. Is he able to repeat this performance in 2020? A deeper look into his advanced metrics may give us the answer

Much of Josh Donaldson's draft value is based on his power production, so that seems like the best place to start. In 2019, Donaldson had a barrel rate of 15.7%, an exit velocity of 92.9 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 50%. Each of these were career-highs. The fact that he was able to reach career highs in these power metrics at the age of 34 is a good sign that the power shouldn't drop off much (if at all) in 2020. These power metrics also translated into 37 home runs, which is tied for the second-most in his career and is another sign that he may have put the calf injury behind him and is capable of a similar performance in the upcoming season.

Donaldson also had a solid xwOBA of .387, which ranked him in the top six percent of the league. A big aspect of this lies in Donaldson's continued ability to draw walks. The 100 he put up in 2019 were the second-most in his career and placed him seventh in all of baseball. His ability to get on base at such a high clip should result in an increased total of runs scored seeing as he will be dropped in the middle of a lineup that scored the second-most runs in baseball in 2019.

At the end of 2019, Donaldson ranked inside the top 50 overall in most fantasy leagues. The fact that he is now going over 40 spots later in drafts after having such a strong season and seemingly placed the calf injury in the rearview means he should return plenty of value in 2020. This is a former MVP we are talking about who was close to a 40/100/100 season. If he can improve upon his average and get it closer to his career .273 mark, he could have a tremendous season. He is projected to hit fourth in a lineup that was sixth in baseball as far as OBP is concerned. This means he should have ample opportunities to drive in runs.

The Verdict

While Kris Bryant should be in line for a solid season, he likely will not return the ADP value at pick 48 overall that Josh Donaldson will return at pick 95 overall. Donaldson finished the 2019 season ranked inside the top 50 in most mixed fantasy leagues, yet is being drafted more than 40 picks later heading into 2020. Donaldson's pedigree and advanced metrics tell us that another strong 2020 season could very well be in store and he should be going much higher in drafts. If Josh Donaldson is available to you at the end of the seventh round or early in the eighth round, you should not hesitate to draft him as he should return plenty of value.

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