ADP Cost Analysis – Robbie Ray vs Trevor Bauer

With fantasy baseball draft season in full swing, those of us who partake in this joyous game are now looking through as much draft data as possible in a bid to find players we love who have lower average draft positions (ADP) than we believe they should. All this to eke out as much draft value as possible. But how do we judge value in drafts?

It’s not possible to say “Player X has good value as he should be drafted 20 spots higher” since his value isn’t quantifiable as an individual. If you believe Player X should be drafted 20 spots higher than his ADP and then you draft him 20 spots higher than his ADP, you’ve just drafted all of the value out of him you claim he had. Said Player X might be drafted 30 spots higher than his ADP in one league and 30 spots lower in another and on each occasion, he might offer good value depending on how the draft was going at the point he is selected. Drafts are dynamic things that change and evolve throughout.

While value can be fluid and isn’t exclusively linked to a single player's ADP, we can compare players' ADP to give us a true reflection of who is offering value in drafts. If two players have similar projections and put up similar numbers, you’d expect them to have a similar ADP. That’s not always the case as we will see here.

The Numbers

Robbie Ray and Trevor Bauer are separated in ADP on NFBC by 71 picks. A look at their 2019 Statcast profiles offers up little in the way of difference between them.

Both pitchers have similar ratings in fastball velocity, with average xwOBA (expected weight OBA) and xSLG (expected SLG) along with good xBA (expected AVG). Bauer has much higher spin rates and a lesser hard-hit rate but also allows a higher exit velocity. While both pitchers have excellent strikeout rates, Ray does have the edge there. If last year’s Statcast profiles have the two evenly matched, what about their actual numbers from 2019?

As their Statcast ratings suggest, Ray and Bauer had similar seasons. Although Ray had a better strikeout rate (K%), Ray's higher walk rate (BB%) meant Bauer accumulated more total strikeouts due to going deeper into games. In this case, volume matters. In leagues counting quality starts (QS) which requires the starting pitcher to complete six innings, Bauer has the edge with 25 starts of six or more innings while Ray only recorded 15 such starts. The two of them were evenly matched last year and while Bauer has a slight edge, the 71 picks between their ADP seems excessive based on last year.

If we go back further to incorporate both players’ best seasons (Ray’s 2017 and Bauer’s 2018), the two are still very close statistically. Since 2017, their total numbers the last three seasons are as follows:

The numbers since 2017 tell a very similar story to last year’s. A similar ERA while Ray has a better strikeout rate. But an elevated walk rate limits Ray’s volume meaning Bauer has a higher accumulation of Ks and wins. Bauer’s 2018 was staggeringly good (2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 221 Ks all ranked in baseball’s top-10). Ray’s 2017 wasn’t quite that good but his 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 218 Ks were all top-15 in baseball. Perhaps the recency bias gives Bauer the edge but consider this; Bauer’s 2018 season was the only time in his career he’s posted a sub-4.00 ERA. Ray has achieved that three times. Given all that, Bauer appears to be the one with greater upside. Again though, that doesn’t justify 71 picks between their ADP.

Steamer doesn’t project a whole lot of difference between the two either. Their 2020 Steamer projections are;

The projections are a familiar tale. Bauer with a marginally better ERA and the greater volume giving him the edge in total Ks. The reason the differences between the two are so important comes into play when we compare them to Nick Mariano's Expected Draft Values (EDV) research, exclusive to Rotoballer. Looking at the EDV of a pitcher drafted 80^th overall and one drafted 151^st, these are the numbers they’d need to produce to offer value at their current ADP:

Although the EDV research can’t duplicate their projections, we can compare the differences in their EDV at their ADP as well as the differences in their Steamer projections. Looking at the two differences, we can see that Ray projects to put up numbers closer to Bauer than their ADP would suggest and their difference in EDV is also closer than the 71 ADP difference they currently have.

Comparing the two pitcher’s situations gives Ray an edge over Bauer this year. Defensively, the Arizona Diamondbacks ranked better than the Cincinnati Reds in 2019. Last year, Arizona had the second-most defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2019 with 117 and whilst Cincinnati ranked sixth, their 58 DRS was less than half of the Diamondbacks’. The effects of Arizona’s humidor, although still relatively new, has helped pitchers and home run rate have declined at Chase Field since its introduction.

On the other hand, Bauer’s in-season move from Cleveland to Cincinnati means he now has to pitch in one of the most hitter friendliest ballparks in the league. Both the Diamondbacks and the Reds have playoff aspirations this year and have improved offenses than in 2019. Ray will have to face division foes the Dodgers and the much-improved Padres this year whilst likely starting at Coors Field at least once. Bauer’s divisional opponents aren’t exactly walkovers with only the Pirates offering an easy matchup.

Conclusion

When comparing Bauer’s and Ray’s numbers, it’s difficult to justify taking Bauer 71 picks before Ray. Bauer’s numbers do give him a slight edge in their rankings and his 2018 offers the greater potential upside despite it being a bigger outlier than even the most favorable projections would offer. Bauer’s greater volume of work does give him a slightly bigger edge in rotisserie leagues where the accumulation of stats carries greater appeal than in head-to-head leagues.

The 71 picks difference in ADP is still excessive in rotisserie formats. So when analyzing their current costs, although Bauer is projected to have a better season, at their current ADP, the greater value for money in the draft is projected to be Ray.

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