Fantasy Baseball ADP Risers - Head-Scratching Trends?

Welcome to Part Two of the ADP Risers and Fallers series, where I will examine key changes from March to the present day. If you missed Part One, where I evaluated injured players and prospects, you can read it right here. Those were the easy risers and fallers.

In this article, we will delve into some other ADP movers that may not be as clear at first glance. We will look at a category called Surprise Movers. Referring to a group of players who moved up and down draft boards without clear cut reasoning, at least without some more in-depth analysis. We will also look at a trend that developed with relief pitchers and catchers moving up draft boards a bit.

It will be fun to see the changes in ADP from April/May to June once we have a locked-in plan for the 2020 season. For now, we have the March and April ADP to run through and look for edges to make us more prepared for draft season. Let’s check out the risers and fallers that might turn some heads.

Surprise Movers

With most ADP risers and fallers it was easy to determine why certain players moved. That was not the case for all players. There were a handful of players that moved for differing reasons, some that took more digging to figure out. Some of the players may thrive on a shortened season as they were usually on an innings limit. Others were just flat out head-scratchers. Let’s take a look at some of the bigger risers and fallers from a surprising standpoint. 

Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers

Old ADP 272, New ADP 246

Wood arrived to spring training this season with an increased fastball, thanks to the help of Driveline, and that new velocity had many running to draft him in March. Even with all the excitement, there were some that were still somewhat hesitant with the Dodgers’ way of toying with a pitcher's innings. Well, the shortened season could potentially change that and his draft price has gone up accordingly. That and the fact he will now be 100% healthy when the season starts. 

Before an injury-riddled 2019, Wood had thrown at least 150 innings in back to back seasons, good for almost a strikeout per inning, and some really solid ratios. He will be pitching for the heavy favorite in the National League and should be in line for wins as well. Wood is a really solid pick this season and the increase in price is justified. With that being said, I would rather gamble on Rich Hill over Wood, but no problem drafting Wood if the feeling of a big season is strong.

Starlin Castro, Washington Nationals

Old ADP 265, New ADP 249

Castro will be entering his eleventh season in the bigs yet is only 30 years old. Year after year he is overlooked in drafts but continues to put in quality production hitting 16 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons while also hitting at least .270. Castro puts up consistent production and now joins the defending world series champion Nationals. 

When Castro signed with the Nationals there were still questions of Castro playing every day. That question was answered when Dave Martinez said Castro was the every day, starting second baseman. There were some drafters still concerned with all the platoon options that the Nats had, but they don’t need to worry nearly as much with the universal DH coming into play. Castro makes for a nice later round 2B or MI options in drafts and the improved price tag still is not high enough.

Quick Hits

Jose Peraza, BOS - For some unknown reason, Peraza is climbing up the ADP charts. He is slated to platoon with Michael Chavis for the Red Sox and hit near the bottom of the Red Sox order. If he were playing every day there could be an argument as a late stolen base target, but for now the price bump makes no sense.

Teoscar Hernandez, TOR - Hernandez, and his teammate Randal Grichuk have been making their way up draft boards. Both are solid power sources later in drafts, but Hernandez has shown the ability to run a bit more than Grichuk. I would rather wait and grab Hernandez a few rounds later with his upside.

C.J. Cron, DET - Cron has been a great later round 1B option after the top targets are off the board. He will still hit for solid power with the Tigers and his price tag is still fine for the slugging first baseman. His price tag likely moved up as others are jumping on the Cron train, as well as the idea of the Tigers not playing in Comerica. Do not worry where he is playing and enjoy some Cron in your life.

Catchers

With the idea of a shortened season, the need for more consistent at-bats appears the be on the minds of many drafting. Over the last few seasons we have seen many more platoons or 65/35 type splits at the catcher position. With the idea of consistent at-bats, some catchers that would usually wait for later in the draft are moving up the draft boards. 

Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays

Old ADP 253, New ADP 243

Jansen was a popular sleeper target in 2019 and he disappointed greatly. His barrel rate dropped by four percent, his wOBA was only. 275 and his average was a horrible .207. This all seems very bad, but there is hope. He hits in a loaded Jays lineup and still managed a .358 xwOBAcon, 40% hard-hit rate, and a really nice 37.4% ideal contact rate. There is definite bounce-back potential with Jansen and at pick 243 he is worth the gamble, especially as a second catcher in a two catcher league.

Jorge Alfaro, Miami Marlins

Old ADP 218, New ADP 210

Alfaro was traded to the Marlins last season and many were concerned the offensive production would plummet in that not so hitter-friendly ballpark. No need for concern as Alfaro hit .262 for the second straight season with 18 home runs and even threw in four stolen bases. It gets even better as Alfaro had career highs in barrel rate at 11.5%, hard-hit rate at 44.8%, and a .452 xwOBAcon. Alfaro continues to improve offensively each season and is still being drafted outside the top 10 at the catcher position. Do not miss out on another solid offensive season from Alfaro.

Quick Hits

Travis d'Arnaud, ATL - d’Arnaud joins the Braves and for some reason people are all over him in drafts. He can hit for some power but is a massive average liability. Besides those concerns, the major concern is being a catcher for the Braves who are notorious for having a near 50/50 platoon split at catcher, and Tyler Flowers is still on the team.

Relief Pitchers

With a shortened season there will likely be more of a push for secure counting stats. The saves stat has already shown some volatility in recent years and a shortened season may enhance that volatility. With fewer saves to be had, more reliable closers or drafting more closers may be the answer. We can see in the ADP changes that a lot of closers, regardless of just how good they are, are moving up draft boards.

Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles

Old ADP 308, New ADP 268

Harvey is the biggest ADP riser and it makes sense. Right before the stop of the season, Harvey was announced as the likely closer for the Orioles. The young flame thrower showcased some back of the bullpen upside at the end of 2019 and he is leaving fantasy owners with some high hopes for 2020. Even at his current price he is a solid RP3 on your roster, but be careful as wins will be very hard to come by for the Orioles, so there will not be a ton of save chances, to begin with.

Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays

Old ADP 137, New ADP 124

Anderson took the fantasy world by storm in 2019 by just dominating hitter after hitter. His dominance has led many to anoint the 29-year-old as the full-time closer for the Rays. He deserves to get his shots and will get many, but this is also the Rays. They love spreading saves around their bullpen and have many qualified candidates to share the wealth with. Diego Castillo and Jose Alvarado will get their fair shake as well and at a much lower draft price than Anderson.

Quick Hits

Hansel Robles, L.A. Angels- Robles took over closing duties in 2019 and never looked back. His pitch mix changes made him a lethal closer and he is still being drafted too late. He’s a great RP2 or even RP1 if you wait on saves.

Giovanny Gallegos, STL Cardinals- Seems everyone is running to draft Gallegos as the Cardinals closer, without worrying about the other options in the bullpen. The Cards will be getting their regular closer Jordan Hicks back as well as other talented options in the pen. Just be careful when reaching for Gallegos.

Conclusion

As you can see there were many changes from the stop of spring training to the new shortened season propositions. The next set of changes will take place when the new season is announced and the three-division format is put in play. Until then, we will keep preparing with the data we have and look to find edges wherever we can find them.