RADIO
The first two rounds in your fantasy draft can be challenging because each available player is tremendously skilled with significant upside. Every pick looks desirable, so it’s important to try to determine which player has a greater likelihood of producing superior fantasy production. This can be accomplished by examining overall production and team context.
This ADP Showdown features Anthony Rendon and Rafael Devers, two players coming off career years, ranking as a couple of the best third basemen in baseball. They are similarly priced in NFBC leagues - Rendon has a 21.74 ADP, while Devers has a 22.84 ADP. When evaluating these two players, it seems as if there’s no clear choice - but after diving deeper, a clear winner emerges.
Let’s take a closer look at the preferred option at third base for the 2020 season. Both players have strong fantasy outlooks, but only one can be victorious in this ADP Showdown!
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Overall Production
The first factor to consider is the overall production of these two players. We’ll start with the counting stats.
Counting Stats
| AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Rendon | 0.319 | 0.412 | 0.598 | 117 | 34 | 126 | 5 |
| Devers | 0.311 | 0.361 | 0.555 | 129 | 32 | 115 | 8 |
It’s clear that Rendon had the better fantasy season in 2019, beating out Devers in AVG, OBP, SLG, HR, and RBI. However, it’s important to consider Devers’ slow start - the young third baseman did not hit his first home run until May 1st. Take a look at these splits:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Pre-May 1 | 0.294 | 0.385 | 0.373 | 15 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| Post-May 1 | 0.314 | 0.356 | 0.589 | 114 | 32 | 107 | 4 |
Devers essentially delivered a season’s worth of strong production post-April. It’s rare to see a talented hitter go homerless in April, so we could have seen an even better season out of Devers were it not for his early struggles. Let’s now compare the plate discipline between the two hitters.
Plate Discipline
| BB% | K% | SwStr% | O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% | |
| Rendon | 12.4 | 13.3 | 5 | 23.8 | 77.8 | 70.1 | 93.2 |
| Devers | 6.8 | 17 | 12 | 40.5 | 71.9 | 76.2 | 82.6 |
It’s clear that Rendon has a more refined approach with superior contact ability and plate discipline, but this picture would not be complete without examining the significant improvements made by Devers this past season.
| BB% | K% | SwStr% | O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% | |
| 2018 | 7.8 | 24.7 | 13.1 | 37.3 | 63.6 | 73.6 | 82.7 |
| 2019 | 6.8 | 17 | 12 | 40.5 | 71.9 | 76.2 | 82.6 |
Devers cut his strikeout rate by 7.7% by being more aggressive at the plate - he began swinging at more pitches outside of the zone and this worked well for him. As he enters his age-23 season, we can likely project continued improvements for this young slugger.
Batted Ball Profile
| Brls/ BBE% |
Brls/ PA% |
HardHit% | Avg Exit Velo (MPH) | Max Exit Velo (MPH) | GB% | FB% | LA° | |
| Rendon | 12 | 8.7 | 46.6 | 90.4 | 107.7 | 33.3 | 30.1 | 19.5 |
| Devers | 9 | 6.8 | 47.5 | 92.1 | 115 | 44.8 | 22.8 | 10.3 |
Rendon is able to barrel the baseball more often. He also has a superior flyball rate and launch angle with a lower groundball rate. However, Devers has a better HardHit% and Exit Velocity, which seems to indicate some untapped power potential. Perhaps if Devers raises his launch angle, he will be able to hit more flyballs and less groundballs, resulting in an increase in home runs. Conversely, it’s also possible that Rendon can hit more home runs, due to his ability to generate hard contact through the air.
Let’s move on to expected statistics:
Expected Statistics
| xBA | xSLG | xwOBA | xwOBAcon | |
| Rendon | 0.319 | 0.599 | 0.418 | 0.445 |
| Devers | 0.295 | 0.519 | 0.360 | 0.413 |
Rendon’s expected statistics indicate that he could have produced an even greater power output last year, in what was a career season. Devers’ xStats show that his surface numbers outperformed his peripherals.
After viewing their overall production for the 2019 season, it’s clear that Rendon is the superior hitter. However, we need to consider that the age-gap - Rendon is six years older than Devers. It’s worthy to note that last year was the first time Rendon exceeded thirty home runs, in what was his seventh season in the big leagues. Devers was able to accomplish this feat in his second full season. Both players have prospect pedigree, but Devers has made a greater impact at a younger age, which bodes well for his future outlook. Let’s check out their team context.
Team Context
Rendon had a career season in his contract year, resulting in a hefty payday for the veteran third basemen with the Los Angeles Angels. While playing with a generational talent like Mike Trout is highly appealing, the shift in league and ballpark is concerning. Rendon goes from Nationals Park to Angel Stadium, where he’ll face unfamiliar pitchers in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark. Recent history with sluggers changing leagues is concerning for Rendon’s 2020 outlook:
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Machado | 2018 | 0.297 | 0.367 | 0.538 | 84 | 37 | 107 | 14 |
| 2019 | 0.256 | 0.334 | 0.462 | 81 | 32 | 85 | 5 | |
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Stanton | 2017 | 0.281 | 0.376 | 0.631 | 123 | 59 | 132 | 2 |
| 2018 | 0.266 | 0.343 | 0.509 | 102 | 38 | 100 | 5 | |
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Pujols | 2011 | 0.299 | 0.366 | 0.541 | 105 | 37 | 99 | 9 |
| 2012 | 0.285 | 0.343 | 0.516 | 85 | 30 | 105 | 8 | |
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| M. Cabrera | 2007 | 0.320 | 0.401 | 0.565 | 91 | 34 | 119 | 2 |
| 2008 | 0.292 | 0.349 | 0.537 | 85 | 37 | 127 | 1 |
Even the best hitters have down seasons after career-best production. The first year of a long term deal is always challenging because of the increased pressure from the new contract. Going to a new team and new league, facing pitchers you haven’t seen before makes this even more difficult.
Devers remains in hitter-friendly Fenway Park in Boston, albeit on a team that just traded away its best hitter in Mookie Betts. We can project a dip in run-scoring opportunities due to this loss, but Devers has shown enough growth that this should not be too much of an issue.
ATC Projections:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | R | HR | RBI | SB | |
| Rendon | 0.291 | 0.379 | 0.525 | 97 | 29 | 104 | 4 |
| Devers | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.538 | 106 | 32 | 104 | 7 |
Verdict
We need to expect a bit of regression in Rendon’s production due to this change of scenery. Devers also should maintain similar production because of familiarity in Fenway and the AL East, as well as continued growth due to his youth. Rendon seemingly had a career year last season, while the best might be yet to come for Devers. Draft Devers over Rendon with confidence.
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