ADP Showdown – Trevor Story vs. Trea Turner

Pitchers and catchers have officially reported and position player workouts are getting underway, which means baseball season is officially upon us! Maybe you haven’t started prepping for your drafts, but fortunately for you, there have already been plenty of drafts, which means that fantasy players out there have already started dealing with tough draft position decisions.

Shortstop is a relatively deep position in 2020 but there are a few standouts at the top, so finding the best producer is going to be crucial. You do not want to swing and miss if you can help it.

In this article, we will take a look at two top-end shortstops who are going very close together in early drafts: The Colorado Rockies' Trevor Story (early ADP 11, shortstop 3) and the Washington Nationals' Trea Turner (early ADP 11, shortstop 4). These two are being drafted almost interchangeably as noted by their ADP, but does one offer more upside and value than the other? We will take a look at each player's history to determine which of the two you should take around ADP 11.

A Well-Written Story

Trevor Story has been superb since he burst on the scene in 2016, finishing fourth in Rookie-of-the-Year voting. In the previous three seasons, Story has two All-Star appearances and has finished in the top-12 of NL MVP voting twice. He has shown a rare power/speed combo that gives him plenty of value in fantasy drafts. In 2019, Story put up an All-Star season by slashing .294/.363/.554 with 35 HR, 85 RBI, 111 R, 58 BB, and 23 SB in 588 at-bats. It was an all-around superb season from Story, who finished as a top-20 fantasy player. He set career highs in AVG, OBP, BB, R, and OPS (.917). Will he be able to continue his ascension in 2020? A deeper look into his metrics as well as other factors like home ballpark and lineup placement should help us determine this.

In 2019, Story put up solid power metrics.  He had an 8.6% barrel rate, 90.9 mph exit velocity, .463 xSLG, and 45.8% hard-hit rate. The exit velocity was a career-high and he was within .2% of his 2018 career-high for hard-hit rate, which is a great sign for future power. He also tied a career-high for walk rate with 8.8%, which is very important for him as it pertains to getting on base and scoring runs. His ability to hit for power and get on base is what makes him a very attractive early draft selection. The fact that he has also stolen 50 bases over the past two seasons to go along with 72 home runs, makes him an elite shortstop option. He does not appear to be slowing down either as his 2019 sprint speed ranked him in the 95th percentile. Therefore, we could certainly expect to see him equal or improve upon his home runs and stolen base totals in 2020.

Aside from the previously mentioned metrics, Story finds himself in a great situation in Colorado as far as his home ballpark and lineup is concerned. As we all know, Coors Field is a very friendly ballpark for hitters. Since 2016, it has ranked in the top five for park factors as far as both runs and home runs are concerned. Story is also projected to move between the leadoff spot and number two spot in the lineup depending upon the pitcher. He is expected to bat leadoff vs lefties and second vs. righties. This is great news as he will be more likely to run and score runs from the leadoff spot and will be more likely to drive in runs from the number two spot. This is also a lineup that scored the ninth-most runs and had the 12th-highest on-base percentage in 2019.

Turner Turning to Power?

Trea Turner has been highly-touted in each of the last two seasons, and rightfully so. He has provided fantasy players with plenty of speed and paired it with some decent power en route to being a top fantasy asset at the shortstop position. In 2019, Turner made himself a top 75 fantasy player by slashing .298/.353/.497 with 19 HR, 57 RBI, 96 R, 43 BB, and 35 SB in 521 at-bats. He missed roughly six weeks with a broken index finger, so the counting stats could have been a bit higher. A lot of hype surrounds Turner entering 2020 as he is expected to increase his power numbers. There has been a lot of talk about Turner hitting third in the Nationals lineup in 2020. If this is the case, can we expect those numbers to increase enough to make him a top-12 fantasy selection? A similar look into his metrics and lineup situation should help us make that determination.

The best part of Turner's profile is his speed. In the previous three seasons, Turner has managed to swipe 124 bags, which averages out to approximately 41 per season. Although he tailed off this average in 2019 with his 35 stolen bases, his speed did not decline as noted by his 30.4 ft/sec sprint speed. This ranked him second in the league behind only Tim Locastro of the Diamondbacks. This leads us to believe that the steals could easily grow to 40-plus again in 2020. especially with a full season of games. However, if he does end up hitting third in the Nationals lineup, the steals may fall off a bit seeing as he will be more relied upon to drive runs in. If this is the case, we should examine his power metrics to determine how well he could perform in this role.

In 2019, Turner had a 6.8% barrel rate, 90.3 mph exit velocity, .454 xSLG, and a 41.5% hard-hit rate. The good news here is that each of these was a career-high for Turner. Expecting him to increase his home run totals significantly is a stretch. If you extrapolate his total out for the time he spent on the IL, you would still be looking at 25 home runs, which isn't exactly elite given the way the ball carried in 2019. If he does end up hitting third in the lineup and changes his approach to hit more long balls, he will lose opportunities to steal bases, which is where he has helped his value in previous seasons.

It is also important to note why he may be asked to hit third in this lineup. Turner may be asked to hit third because the Nationals lost All-Star and MVP candidate, Anthony Rendon, who spent 515 at-bats in the three-hole in 2019. The loss of Rendon in this lineup cannot be overstated. It was a lineup that scored the sixth-most runs in baseball in 2019 where Rendon contributed by hitting .319 with 34 HR, 119 R, and drove in 126 RBI. He will now be replaced by a combination of Carter Kieboom and Asdrubal Cabrera, who are not nearly the producers Rendon was. One positive here is that Turner will have Juan Soto hitting behind him, but the overall production of the lineup is bound to decline with Rendon's loss.

The Verdict

Overall, both players bring solid value to the shortstop position, however, Trevor Story brings exactly what you would hope for as far as a first-round fantasy draft pick is concerned. He provides a plethora of power mixed with speed. He also hits for a solid average and will score plenty of runs hitting at (or near) the top of a lineup that scored the ninth-most runs in baseball in 2019 and played in the No. 1 park as far as run factor is concerned. Unless you know you want speed early in drafts and Turner is expected to continue to hit from the leadoff spot, fantasy players should feel comfortable taking Story as their top shortstop with an ADP around 11.

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