Analyzing Value in the Rookie RB Class (Beyond Saquon Barkley)

This article will take a look at the current state of the 2018 rookie running back class and determine which players are potential “value” draft picks in accordance with their average draft position (ADP).  A value pick is generally perceived as a player that will outperform his draft slot.  Last year, for example, Kareem Hunt and Alvin Kamara had ADPs of 18 overall and 142 overall, respectively.  You probably don’t need a reminder but it’s worth a quick look back.  Hunt finished the year as the NFL’s rushing leader 1,327 yards, adding eight rushing touchdowns, 455 yards receiving, and three receiving touchdowns.  Alvin Kamara set the fantasy football world on fire with 728 yards rushing, 826 yards receiving, and 13 total touchdowns despite having a cloudy role to start the season.  Hunt finished the year at ninth overall (RB4), Kamara finished fourth overall (RB3).

Last year wasn’t the first time we’ve seen a rookie running back have a monster fantasy year (Zeke’s 2016 comes to mind).  Clearly, finding value in rookie running backs can play a huge role in a successful fantasy football season - so let's take a look at some big-name rookies not named Saquon Barkley.

All ADP data is from fantasyfootballcalculator.com, updated 8/27/18.

Evaluating Rookie Runners

Royce Freeman, Denver Broncos (ADP: 33 OVR, RB19)

Make no mistake, the Denver Broncos drafted Royce Freeman with the seventh pick of the third round with the vision of him taking hold of the starting role as the team’s primary running back. At 6’ and 235 pounds, he is a bruising back who playerprofiler.com feels best compares to long-time stud Steven Jackson. Freeman played for four years at Oregon, averaging an impressive 5.9 yards per carry and totaling 60 rushing touchdowns (most in Pac-12 history). Devontae Booker has been largely anemic in his two seasons in Denver (3.6 yards per carry and six total touchdowns), and he serves as Freeman’s only real competition for the starting job.

The Broncos made a sensible move in the offseason with the signing of quarterback Case Keenum, which should result in the passing game returning to a respectable level. This should mean fewer boxes stacked against the run, and what should be a solid offensive line will have an easier time opening up running lanes. Fantasypros.com has the Broncos offensive line ranked 16^th coming into the year with the signing of tackle Jared Veldheer and the expected improvement from first-rounder Garett Bolles. Freeman has outperformed Booker thus far in the preseason, and while Booker could serve as a change-of-pace or passing down back, this is Freeman’s backfield without a doubt. Don’t let the equal touch-share in the preseason fool you, please try to remember that it's preseason and don't read too much into it. Only Saquon Barkley has a clearer path to a starting role among the rookie class, and he was taken with the second overall pick in the NFL Draft.

Recommendation: Take Royce Freeman with confidence at his current draft price as he is absolutely dripping with value at RB19.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions (ADP: 54 OVR, RB25)

The Detroit Lions selected running back Kerryon Johnson with the 11^th pick of the second round, making him the fourth running back selected after Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, and Sony Michel. Johnson had a solid three years as an Auburn Tiger, rushing for over 2,400 yards at 4.8 yards per carry and 34 total touchdowns.  The issue with Johnson’s fantasy outlook has nothing to do with his skill set - it’s about his opportunity. The Lions, exhibiting a knee-jerk reaction to having an awful rushing attack in 2017, went out and signed notorious goal-line bruiser LeGarrette Blount in the offseason. Additionally, they still have passing-down specialist Theo Riddick, and the perpetually disappointing Ameer Abdullah, on the roster and expected to stay there. Though Abdullah surprisingly drew the “start” in Week 2 of the preseason, Johnson seems to have surpassed him on the depth chart and has the profile of the early-down, between-the-tackles runner that the Lions have been looking for about two decades now.

With that being said, it’s hard to imagine the Lions not utilizing Theo Riddick in no-huddle and passing down situations and Blount in goal-line and short-yardage plays. The presence of these specialists limits Johnson’s upside to start the year, but there are definitely a few ways in which he could become a valuable fantasy contributor and blow away his RB25 ranking. First of all, though he needs to learn the offense and adapt to the speed of the NFL, he is arguably the most talented back on the roster and could conceivably become the focal point of the running game with a good start to the season. Another way he could become a major factor is with injuries to either Riddick or Blount, which is not at all far-fetched given their histories, and in Blount's case mileage concerns (over 1,300 carries in his 8-year career).

Recommendation: Consider Kerryon Johnson a high-risk, high-reward RB3/Flex option who has an above-average chance to outperform his ADP and return major value.

Sony Michel, New England Patriots (ADP: 74 OVR, RB33)

Sony Michel seems to be a forgotten man among the 2018 rookie running back class. Saquon Barkley, Royce Freeman, and Kerryon Johnson are getting all of the preseason hype, while Ronald Jones, Rashaad Penny, and Nick Chubb have seen their stocks drop dramatically. Following a minor surgical procedure on his knee in early August, many people wrote off Michel as it seemed that Rex Burkhead would seize control of the Patriots backfield. However, Burkhead sustained a slight tear in his right knee in mid-August and only recently returned to practice. Additionally, Michel is now expected to be ready for the season opener.  Michel spent four years at Georgia, rushing for 1,227 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final year in 2017. He also averaged an astounding 7.9 yards per carry and added 64 catches for 621 yards and six touchdowns receiving throughout his career. The Patriots spent the 31^st pick in the first round on Michel, and no doubt will want to get the talented back involved in their game plan as soon as possible. That being said, we all know the deal with the Patriots backfield by now, so there is inherently a lot of risk in using a mid-round pick on Michel. They have the aforementioned Rex Burkhead seemingly atop the depth chart, steady veteran James White, goal-line back Jeremy Hill, and the pedestrian Mike Gillislee all competing for playing time with Michel.

One of Hill or Gillislee is expected to be released before the start of the season, but it is clear that Sony Michel will still need to earn the coaching staff’s trust before earning significant looks. An injury to any of the running backs would also garner Michel an easier path to fantasy production. You don’t need to be told that having a key contributor in a top-tier offense (led by the GOAT) is something to strive for in fantasy football,  even if he is a part of a hard-to-decipher committee. Michel has the talent to be that guy, and if you want to gamble that he leaps over an uninspiring running back depth chart or benefits from injuries, he could pay off his ADP in a major way.

Recommendation: At an ADP of RB33, Sony Michel is well-worth the risk if you are comfortable with your RB1 and RB2 and want a high-upside RB3/Flex option.

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