Anthony Santander: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

The fantasy baseball community has a nasty habit of ignoring players who don't play for the best teams, especially if they lose whatever might have made them appealing. For example, the Baltimore Orioles have been terrible for a while now and their hitters were rostered only because Camden Yards was a good ballpark for power. With news that the team was pushing the fences back this past offseason, Baltimore's sluggers lost the favorable home environment that generated fantasy interest.

Most Orioles were afterthoughts on draft day as a result, and the team hasn't done anything to put them on the fantasy radar since. Therefore, it's not surprising that 27-year-old Anthony Santander is only rostered in 26% of Yahoo! leagues. His .219/.335/.391 line with eight homers looks like it belongs on waivers, and he's not getting any points based on team context.

While the lack of interest in Santander is understandable, that doesn't make it right. This author has rostered Santander in every league possible because he is a better player than his surface stats and lack of name recognition might suggest. Here is why.

Anthony Santander's Proven Power

Santander has never recorded more than 438 PAs in a single season despite playing in the major leagues since 2017, so he doesn't have eye-popping HR totals on his resume. That said, he clubbed 20 HR in 405 PAs in 2019, 11 HR in 165 PAs in 2020, and 18 HR in 438 PAs in 2021. All of these seasons prorate to 30 HR or more if you give Santander 600 PAs, and he should be able to reach that threshold this year. Just prorating small samples and calling it a projection is usually a lazy way of going about analysis, but Santander has done it three years running. We have a good idea of who he is.

The way that Santander produces those numbers isn't sexy but it is consistent. He hits a ton of fly balls with a 44.5 career FB% (47.7% this year) and pulls an above-average number of them with a 30.8 career Pull% on flies (30.6% this season). Santander's Statcast power indicators are around average, with an 8.5% rate of Brls/BBE and 92.8 mph of average airborne exit velocity this season (8.4% and 94.2 mph in 2021). His HR/FB is never impressive as his career rate is only 13.5%.

Santander might not hit the majestic moonshots of an Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, but he puts balls over the fence by the sheer volume of pulled fly balls. You don't get bonus points for long homers in fantasy, so Santander's approach is just as viable as anybody else's.

Anthony Santander's Improving Plate Discipline

When Santander first came up, he was a free swinger who hacked at more than 40% of the pitches he saw outside of the strike zone. He has made gradual progress in every season since, culminating in a career-best 31.6% chase rate so far in 2022. The improvement has enabled Santander to double his career BB% from 6.2% to 12.5%, making him a real asset in OBP formats and increasing his opportunity to earn runs scored in other leagues.

Chasing fewer pitches has also helped Santander improve his SwStr% to 9.3% from a career rate of 10.8%. Strikeouts have never really been Santander's bugaboo with a career rate of 20.9%, but he is doing a little better this season with a flat 20% rate.

Anthony Santander's Batting Average Upside

Santander's average has traditionally been in the .250-.260 range, so this year's .219 mark represents something of a disappointment. However, there is hope that he will be able to increase that figure. First, Santander's heavy flyball profile would be expected to decrease his BABIP potential, but his career .268 would still be a substantial improvement over his current .238. A surge in IFFB% is largely to blame for this, as his 21% mark towers over even his elevated career rate of 14.7%. Any regression should help.

Second, Santander is a guy who gets shifted without having the batted ball profile to support shifting him. His 52.3 Pull% on grounders is very low for a shift candidate, while his 11.4 Oppo% on grounders is on the high side. His career stats are similar with a 59.8 Pull% and 12.4 Oppo% on grounders, and Santander is a lifetime .270 hitter against the shift.

Finally, Santander's 18.5 LD% is due for positive regression. His career rate is 21.2%, and fluctuations in LD% generally mean nothing over full seasons, let alone single months. Statcast says that Santander deserves a .239 average based on his launch angles and exit velocities, and that number would go higher if he starts hitting more liners. Throw in some improvement in his K% rooted in his better plate discipline metrics, and it's not hard to get him to the .240-.250 range at least.

The Verdict on Anthony Santander

Santander is locked in as Baltimore's three-hitter, meaning that he enjoys an important lineup role that should allow him to rack up all of the counting stat opportunities that the Orioles can muster. He has no significant platoon split and should be able to produce 30 HR with a decent batting average, making him a solid contributor in four out of the five classic fantasy stats. That's a Champ considering he should be available for free.

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