Tyler Anderson: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

With the MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching, fantasy managers are also under the gun to make the last-minute moves that will set them up for a successful stretch run. Everybody says that you should "buy low" and "sell high," but your rivals are likely to follow the same philosophy. The trick, therefore, becomes letting a rival think they're buying low and/or selling high when they aren't.

If you need a pitcher, you might want to consider acquiring Tyler Anderson. The 32-year-old southpaw is 11-1 with a 2.61 ERA on the season, but his 20.9 K% is below league-average and both his 3.94 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA suggest harsh regression on the horizon. Throw in "luck metrics" that look too good to be true and Anderson's current manager might be looking to sell high.

Anderson might not be quite as good as his ERA or record, but he's pitching better than his ERA estimators would suggest and the wins should keep flowing for the top-notch Dodgers. He isn't a total mirage and would be worth acquiring if you don't have to pay full price. Here's why:

Tyler Anderson Has Luck of His Own Making

To date, much of Anderson's success has come from his ability to limit baserunners with a 0.99 WHIP. He isn't walking anyone with a 4.4 BB% and is allowing just a .261 BABIP, both of which are substantially better than his career marks of 6.7% and .291, respectively. Some fantasy managers will see that and scream "fluke!"

However, that's not the case. Anderson's fastball has a zone% of 61.7 and his cutter a mark of 56.7%, giving him two different pitches he can use for strikes at any time. His sinker is his fourth-most used pitch and has a zone% of 54.4, giving him a third option in the zone if he needs one. In short, Anderson's arsenal revolves around throwing multiple pitches for strikes. It makes sense that he wouldn't walk many.

Similarly, Anderson has a proven track record of limiting BABIP. His career mark of .291 is better than average and inflated by the time he spent pitching at Coors Field, including a .318 mark over 114 1/3 IP in his rookie year and an ugly .391 in 20 2/3 IP in 2019. He has consistently been in the lower .280 range since leaving Colorado, meaning that regression shouldn't hurt nearly as much as expected.

There may not even be regression. Anderson has allowed a batting average of .222 this season, and do you know what batting average Baseball Savant says that Anderson deserved to give up based on his launch angles and exit velocities? Exactly .222, suggesting perfectly neutral luck.

Anderson's .363 slugging percentage against does not match his expected slugging percentage of .349, it's higher. Assuming nothing else changes, Anderson has likely deserved his 6.8% HR/FB (12.8% career) and may even see positive regression if his Statcast metrics are any indication.

Anderson's 79.1% strand rate is higher than his career rate of 72.2% and it's the one luck metric that Anderson hasn't deserved thus far. LOB% correlates with K%, and Anderson isn't generating many strikeouts. That said, his arsenal is strong enough that an uptick could be coming in the second half.

Tyler Anderson Has Strikeout Upside

Anderson's repertoire consists primarily of a fastball, changeup, and cutter with the occasional sinker and curve. His fastball has a strong zone% as noted above but doesn't offer much in terms of velocity or spin rate, giving it an average SwStr% of 7. His cutter is a little better with a 12 SwStr% and 39.9% chase rate to go with its strong zone% but won't generate that many Ks on its own.

Anderson's changeup is an elite wipeout offering though. Its 21.5 SwStr% is on par with the weapons deployed by the game's top strikeout artists with a very strong 45.6% chase rate to boot. It's only a strike 39.2% of the time, but the rest of Anderson's pitches are strikes so often that batters are always primed to swing.

Anderson is also throwing his change more often this year, increasing its usage from 24.6% last year to 32.5% in 2022 at the expense of a few cutters (27.2% to 21.1%) and sinkers (12.4% to 8.4%). The swap has produced a career-best SwStr% of 12.4 (11.5 career) which would be expected to increase his K%, but it hasn't translated yet. Assuming it does, Anderson could be somewhere around the 25 K% range.

Anderson's sinker has a pathetic SwStr% of 2.9%, so fantasy managers should be rooting for the cutter and change to replace it in his arsenal. It might look like it's serving a purpose by limiting right-handed batters to a .208 average, but their xBA of .330 suggests that it's not a great weapon against them. Anderson's curve is a show-me pitch that has been thrown 28 times all season.

Tyler Anderson Pitches for the Dodgers

The Dodgers are a great baseball team buoyed by playing in a mediocre division filled with weak offenses. Anderson has a regular slot in their rotation, meaning that he gets tons of cracks at bottom-feeders like the Rockies and Diamondbacks. The Giants and Padres are decent but rely more on pitching than hitting, giving Anderson two more punchless lineups in pitcher's parks to contend with.

The Dodgers don't always play NL West opponents, but they're the class of the National League and would be a strong favorite to win nearly every game on their schedule. As such, Anderson doesn't need to maintain his 2.61 ERA to rack up victories for his fantasy managers.

The Final Verdict on Tyler Anderson

Stats like xFIP and SIERA don't like Anderson because they aren't calibrated for a guy like him. His xERA of 2.99 is a better reflection of his BABIP-suppressing skills, representing a slight decline from his current production but still a tremendous asset in fantasy. He also has some strikeout upside and pitches for one of the league's top teams, making him a great addition for all fantasy managers. He is a Champ.

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