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We are less than two weeks into the season, and full panic mode is setting in for many fantasy players. It should not, but it is. Some of our draft picks perform poorly, and we always wonder what to do. It is even worse when watching some of our top draft picks struggle. So, what do we do? Do we drop them? The answer is a strong NO.
We should begin to look into the underlying metrics on players of concern. Nearly all metrics do not have a large enough sample size to make firm decisions, but we can get an idea if a certain player is heading in the right direction or not.
In this article, we will look at five hitters drafted in the top 50 according to NFBC Online Championships in the final days before the season began. Players that I have received many questions on already this season. Remember, we are not dropping these players but looking at what we should expect going forward and what may be wrong. Maybe we have some buy-low options instead of droppable players.
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Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
It feels like deja vu when it comes to Tucker. He started last season quite slow but still finished with a .294 average, 30 home runs, and 14 stolen bases. So far in 2022, he is only hitting .095 with two home runs and a stolen base. Sure, that sounds bad, but there are some positives.
Tucker is walking 12.5% of the time, higher than last year’s 9.3%. The plate discipline looks good as he is swinging much more in the zone (80.6% Z-swing) while also laying off a lot of the balls out of the zone (24.3% O-swing). Being aggressive in the zone has led to a great 94.8% Z-contact.
When checking out Tucker’s contact quality, there is a lot to be optimistic about. He is barreling the ball 12.5% of the time to go with a 40.6% hard-hit rate. We all know xStats are not the end-all, be-all, but Tucker’s jump of the page for positive regression. For instance, he is hitting .095, but his xBA is .281.
A .067 BABIP is not helping either, which we all know is not sustainable. In the end, we know Tucker will be fine. We just hope it is sooner than later. If you can buy low, I would. At worst, do not, I repeat, do not drop Kyle Tucker.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
Betts was battling a hip injury last season but was supposed to be healthy coming into 2022. Many are questioning his health after his horrific start. Betts entered Friday night hitting .178 with zero home runs and one stolen base. The power, the plate discipline, and more have all seemed lost so far.
Betts is striking out 23.1% of the time compared to his usual 15% rate. His contact rates are close to his career norms, but he is swinging less overall, which may result in more called strikes, even though his 19.6% called strike rate is pretty much the norm for Betts.
The quality of contact is my biggest concern. Betts has zero barrels so far with a 30.3% hard-hit rate. His average exit velocity is down from usual at 87.3 mph as well. When looking at the contact results, Betts is hitting the ball to the opposite field 5% more than last season, which does take away the overall quality of contact more often than not.
As I write this on Friday evening, Betts does have a walk and a stolen base while also going 0-2 (he then proceeded to hit two home runs). Betts is a great player, but he looks more lost than I could ever expect. Will he bounce back? Sure, but I am not confident we see the MVP form of Betts this season. The rest of season projections still have Betts hitting close to .270 with 24 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That is a good season, but not the season you wanted from such an early draft pick.
Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Orioles
Most of us expected some regression for Mullins after his amazing 30/30 season. However, this slow start is worse than most could have imagined. Through 13 games, Mullins is hitting .196 with two home runs and a stolen base.
The main stat line reeks, but the 15 strikeouts for a 26.3% strikeout rate is concerning. The increase correlates with higher swing rates and lower contact rates last year.
| Year | O-Swing | O-Contact | Z-Swing | Z-Contact | Contact |
| 2021 | 30% | 71.70% | 64.50% | 87.80% | 81.70% |
| 2022 | 38.10% | 71.70% | 76.80% | 79.40% | 75.90% |
The lack of contact has also led to an increase of SwStr from 8.2% last season to 12.7% this season. Mullins is being more aggressive, and increased aggressiveness is for the worse.
If we want a silver lining, there is one. There may not be a lot of contact, but when Mullins is making contact, he is hitting it well. He already has six barrels this season for a 16.2% barrel rate. Mullins is barreling the ball quite well, which correlates greatly with his 45.9% hard-hit rate.
Even with the slow start, Mullins has the potential to go 20/20. Mullins may end with a better season than Betts. If you can buy low on Mullins, I would try and make that happen.
Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
It has only been 11 games for Merrifield this season, yet many are panicking. Sure, he only has six hits and is hitting .128. Not ideal. The poor average also comes with zero barrels, given Whit is usually a 4-5% barrel rate player, so barrels aren’t superabundant in his profile. There is a lot to be optimistic about with some of these negative stats.
Whit is only striking out 8.7% of the time for starters, down from nearly 15% last season. Whit also has a hard-hit rate of 30%, which would be his highest since 2018. The biggest standout to start the season is the results on contact that Whit has had compared to last season.
| Year | GB% | FB% | LD% | PU% |
| 2021 | 41.7 | 25.8 | 26.7 | 5.8 |
| 2022 | 35 | 32.5 | 20 | 12.5 |
Whit elevates the ball more often, as seen in the increased FB and PU rates. If he can lower those and get his LD and GB rates back to the norm, the hits will start flooding in. More hits mean more counting stats and, more importantly, more stolen bases. Even with the slow start, Whit has three steals. Do not panic; Whit will be just fine.
Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt’s slow start seems pretty cut and dry for me. He only has a 6.3% barrel rate, but he still has a 50% hard-hit rate, which means the quality of contact is not bad. The results just aren't ideal. That makes sense as Goldy’s GB and PU rates increased while his LD rate dropped. This all makes perfect sense.
Looking at things a little deeper may explain even more about the results. Goldy is swinging less in the zone while swinging more out of the zone, which usually leads to worse contact/results overall.
| Year | O-Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Swing% | Z-Contact% |
| 2021 | 28.1 | 71.6 | 66.1 | 81.1 |
| 2022 | 34.8 | 60.4 | 50.7 | 86.8 |
These are pretty large gaps in chasing pitches or swinging at pitches in the zone. It seems like an easy fix, but we shall see. I am still very optimistic when it comes to Goldschmidt. He already has two steals this season, and the power will come.
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